Just a quick run down on the night slate tonight.  Not a big fan of this one tonight, but we’ll make it work.  If you want a game to bet the over in – take over in the Baltimore/Cleveland Showdown game.   WEATHER All clear   GEORGE KIRBY (DK: $8500, FD: $10.2k) Kirby at home = good Kirby.  No reason to think his splits wont continue into this season where he is an Ace when pitching at friendly T-Mobile.  Here’s some expected K% against his slider (the one that gets hit the hardest when its hit) 30%, 35%, 35%, 27%, 30%… Yeah, he’s probably getting over his 5.5 strikeout prop tonight. CHRIS SALE (DK: $9400, FD: $10.9k) The reverse blowout theory should tell us to use Sanchez and not Sale here, but I say curse that theory, the Phillies shouldn’t suddenly smash Sale.  If this game was in the afternoon – then yes – but tonight this is going under as one would assume it does.   OTHER FAVORABLE OPTIONS Nate Eovaldi Cristopher Sanchez Zac Gallen   LA ANGELS Do not read into this that much, I just wanted to keep Trout in the 2 hole where he belongs.  He is the top play tonight of course. Nolan Schanuel Mike Trout Zach Neto   AZ DIAMONDBACKS Welcome back to Chase Field Max Scherzer.  Welcome to the Corbin Carroll show Ketel Marte Corbin Carroll Geraldo Perdomo Adrian Del Castillo   SD PADRES We should anticipate that Kikuchi will be better at home this year.  The short porch out in RF in Anaheim doesn’t get talked up enough but a lefty like him should be able to be serviceable at home.  I said serviceable, not dominant. Fernando Tatis Nick Castellanos Ty France Miguel Andujar     CATCHER Ivan Herrera Yainer Diaz Will Smith   FIRST BASE Ty France Nolan Schanuel Christian Walker   SECOND BASE Ketel Marte Ozzie Albies Fernando Tatis Jr   THIRD BASE Austin Riley Isaac Paredes Miguel Andujar   SHORTSTOP Zach Neto Carlos Correa Xander Bogaerts   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Mike Trout Corbin Carroll Andy Pages Cam Smith   OUTFIELD – Tier II Yordan Alvarez:  DK Priced him properly because Pallante is just the type he should crush Nick Castellanos   Mike Trout – OF – LA Angels – Chairman of The Dongers Club Corbin Carroll – OF – Diamondbacks Austin Riley – 3B – Braves Ketel Marte […]

Alright, the afternoon slate is calling to me, so here is a full break down as I like this slate the most of the three we have today.  Sorry, but if you aren’t on the unders early you are probably not happy with the first three games.   WEATHER All games will play. Rays at Pirates:  They are the reason we start at 3:30 because of big storms expected to roll in this evening.  Game will play   Is it me, or have we really been starved of cheaper pricing on the pitchers thus far in 2026?  I think DraftKings algo has them all jacked up more than usual into the 8k-10k range.  Maybe it’s just me… The two big names today are Skubal and Skenes as they are once again on the same slate.  I don’t think either has one of their elite you had to have me or you are dead outings.  But Skubal — even as a lefty in Fenway — should just mow through the Boston lineup with one arm tied behind his back.  My favorite two plays though are down in south beach pairing Sandy & Woodruff together. AFTERNOON SLATE SP RANKINGS Sandy Alacntara Brandon Woodruff Paul Skenes Tarik Skubal BOOM OR BUST Brayan Bello:  Everything on paper says this is a clean Detroit spot.  The only way he survives is with some fortunate BABIP, but i can see him trying to match Skubal in a sneaky pitchers duel.   WHITE SOX Big reason we go here is just the raw combination of cheap bats + bad SP + hitters park and almost certainly having two high priced pitchers in any good lineup today. Miguel Vargas Andrwe Benintendi Colson Montgomery   PIRATES With Skenes and their going to be able to hit his cutter today I would have no problem rolling -163 on their ML.  Expect them to get production from Cruz & O’Hearn here to lead the way. Oneil Cruz Bryan Reynolds Ryan O’Hearn Brandon Lowe   TIGERS Bello has a dominant start coming & this could be him pulling a monkey out of his ass if he finds a way to do it today because Detroit really looks great in their matchups 1-6 today.  He should get beat up with almost every guy putting the ball in play. Riley Greene Colt Keith Kerry Carpenter Javy Baez   CATCHER Drew Millas Reese McGuire   […]

Fourteen new series kick off today and the one that started new last night (Baltimore at Cleveland) was a tone setter for what the weekend projects in the MAJORITY of the series.  Not all, just the majority.  That would be lower scoring with pitching doing better than you expect — however this is not to say that there aren’t some very favorable hitter spots to look at.  Basically this weekends Mike Trout’s of the world (who, uh, is back home tomorrow night for those keeping score at home).   BTW.  Keep score at the bar.  It’s way cooler.  Chicks dig it. Today is most definitely a good Friday setup with an afternoon Wrigley game and then some early Turbo action (should be 7pm games, but we will live with the new era).   WE START AT …. 1060 WEST ADDISON METS at CUBS:  Expect people to tout the overs here, the rain could be pushing into the game at some point but it should get played.  It is a small sample size but Francisco Alvarez has destroyed Wrigley Field, and this is one of those spots where the entire franchise seems to hit well in that stadium.  Certain teams (like the Marlins going into Philly) just have their way in certain spots for whatever reason – no matter who is on the team.  Maybe they really like the coffee?  Maybe they’re secretly telling us that Chicago Pizza is better than NY Pizza?   Who knows.  But I love the Mets all weekend.  Ride their team totals and ride the Francisco’s. WE GO TO, THE HOUSE THAT RYAN BRAUN BUILT Braves at Phillies:  No player has tormented the CBP like Ryan Braun did.  Over his career while coming in from the NL Central once a year, Braun went in to Philly 37 times, carried a .417/.471/.795 slash line with 11 doubles, 2 triples, 14 home runs and 45 RBI.  I don’t think that Bryson Stott has accumulated that many extra base hits in his entire time as a Phillie.  I say all this because there’s a new sheriff in town.  For a moment it looked like Juan Soto was going to take over as the Mayor of Philadelphia – but no, we have Matt Olson with FIFTEEN home runs in 32 games at the Bank.  He doesn’t have the full on base line that Braun has, but Olson fucking dominates here.  Austin Riley finally […]

WEATHER Royals at Tigers:  Slight chance or rain.  Less of a chance than the Royals scoring 3 or more runs too, so were’ good. Angels at Yankees:  VERY warm.   What a joyous slate of Thursday Baseball we have.  Ladies and Gentlemen, the God’s have given us another Urena.  No relation to Jose other than also being Dominican, this one is named … Walbert.  What?  Yes, I said Walbert.   No chance that is his real name?   I assure you, it is.    He will be starting for the Angels today.  God help us all. Now for other pitchers I trust today…   KRIS BUBIC (DK: $9000, FD: $9900) You are either playing Max Fried in mid-April 90 degree day game or you’re fading him.  If you are fading him, you cannot pass up on Bubic IMO.  The Royals are looking to avoid the sweep in Detroit and they’re damn well gonna need Bubic to give them 6 clean innings if they can pull that off.  His control is very good right now and the weather should be clear enough to let him keep that up. LANDEN ROUPP (DK: $8000, FD: $8700) Congrats to the Reds on beating the piss out of Tyler Mahle last night.  They can go back to being just a mediocre offense today.  6 of the Reds top 7 hitters have an increase in their K% against RH breaking pitches.  Roupp’s curve ball is his plus pitch and RHH are only getting 19% hard hit rates off him.  This narrows it down to Friedl and Elly & I love my chances with Roupp against them.  I could almost argue that he is SP1 for me today.   OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS Max Fried:  This is the fade.  He’s gonna be 60% owned in April 90 degree day game against a team with good power vs LHH.  Normally the final game after a big series on the road is when Trout stayed up too late in the hotel room watching highlights of Bobby Hebert throwing 4 INT and flipping off the fans vs the Eagles in the early 90’s playoffs and thus he has a quiet game — but something tells me he wants to finish on a bang and got a good nights sleep finally.  The Halo’s will make Fried work. Keider Montero:  Yeah, Royals suck, whatever.  They suck every year coming out of Arizona in the Spring […]

WEATHER All clear – no PPD risk IMO.   This really projects to be a lower scoring night across MLB, but there are only two pitchers who are standing out above the crowd.  I have them ranked #1 and #2 and everyone else should as well because there’s no reason to get cute in that regard. However, this does not mean that you cannot pivot off them for a second SP2 on DraftKings tonight, but your risk is very high. DYLAN CEASE (DK: $9700, FD: $10,400) Picking on Milwaukee at home is always uneasy — but they’re banged up & Cease is light years ahead of anyone else in potential strikeout upside. SHOHEI OHTANI (DK: $9500, FD: $10,900) I don’t use Ohtani much as a pitcher because I always fear they’re going to baby him too much to justify spending a heavy portion of salary.  Tonight, however, with the Mets continuing to look horrific offensively is a night I’ll take that stab.  This is a 6 IP, 7 K, 1 ER max type spot with a reasonable price tag and definitive upside to 10 strikeouts since he did get ramped up to 96 pitches last outing.     BEST WILD CARD(s) Emerson Hancock J.T. Ginn   BRAVES My lord, Chris Paddack on the bump and is that … yep, that’s Austin Riley’s music playing my friends.  a 2-2 change-up just shot into the left field seats and that’ll make it 4-0 Atlanta. Austin Riley Michael Harris II – Miami was running at will on Atlanta last night & the Braves will return the favor tonight. RAYS Yes, I know the Rays have lost 15 in a row on April 15th.  Whatever.  This is the best hitting weather on the slate IMO. We don’t boost the Rays enough on the metrics because they are playing small ball, but they find a way to come through each night & the Yandy Diaz 3-4 with a walk and 4 RBI game tonight smells awfully nice, does it not? Yandy Diaz Chandler Simpson     CATCHER Drake Baldwin Edgar Quero Nick Fortes   FIRST BASE Yandy Diaz Matt Olson Ben Rice   SECOND BASE Ozzie Albies Edouard Julien   THIRD BASE Austin Riley Junior Caminero Brendan Donovan   SHORTSTOP Jacob Wilson Otto Lopez Xander Bogaerts   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Michael Harris II Chandler Simpson Brandon Nimmo Evan Carter   OUTFIELD – Tier II […]

I did a ton of analysis digging last night as the games were going on to really just dissect between conspiracy theories and weather touts as to what was really happening with the sudden boost in offense.  And the results were pretty strong. Overall SPIN rate was significantly down yesterday, which is a huge correlation to fastballs getting drilled.  When you just watched games last night, you saw more middle-middle pitches that would lead to more barrels and more long hit balls.  But, we also saw balls carrying clearly more than they have been and sure enough the data backed it up. Even taking into account weather, there was a +2.5% boost on the carry for all balls hit last night.  This means that it wasn’t just weather.  The ball was traveling further. But it couldn’t just be different baseballs.  There was something to the first inning struggles as all but one game had runs in the first inning last night and most of them had homers in the first inning.  It was the starting pitcher struggling.  They couldn’t grip it right and they couldn’t get movement on their fastballs. So the analysis I did went back the last 2-3 seasons (not further because I wanted to keep in the current 100% humidor and new baseball era).  What I found was interesting.  It’s a theory that is as follows: Pitchers who go from a cold game to a suddenly warm/humid game get hit significantly harder. Across nearly 2,000 starts over the last two seasons: They give up 5 more points of hard hit rate (30.8% vs 25.7%) They give up 43% more home runs (0.86/game vs 0.60/game) Their strikeout rate drops 4 full points (18.4% vs 22.4%) They give up about one extra hit per game And it’s worse for fastball-heavy guys like Kikuchi and Crochet. When a pitcher who lives on his fastball goes from pitching in 50-degree weather to suddenly 75+, he loses feel on his primary weapon. The grip is different, the release is different, the ball comes out flatter with less bite. Hitters aren’t missing it anymore, and when they hit it, the warm air helps it carry further. The cold-to-cold guys?   They’re fine. The warm-to-warm guys?   Fine. It’s specifically the transition that kills them. Their hands haven’t adjusted to the conditions yet, and the results show it immediately — fewer strikeouts, more hard contact, more […]

WEATHER Red Sox at Twins:  This is a PPD risk, and certainly a delay risk.  Storm changes are high here and it’s the first game of a series where they have a day game on Wednesday and both teams are off Thursday.  Neither team will mind if this is PPD. Guardians at Cardinals:  Could be some fireworks in this game.   PAUL SKENES (DK: $9500) Who are The Washington Nationals and the Minnesota Twins.  Two teams who are actually connected to each other historically.  You’re like.  Uh, what?  What the hell does that have to do with Paul Skenes? No, I haven’t started drinking yet.  Wait, what time are you reading this?  You see.  The Nationals and the Twins are the answer (or the question?) to a Jeopardy question (or the answer?) right now for the MLB season.  And that answer is ‘Theyre the teams who won a bunch of games in April but still finished dead fucking last’. So, yeah, the Nationals are a fun team right now.  Jimmy Wood has his swing back on track . Brady House, CJ Abrams are hitting decent.  Nasim Nunez makes good plays at short.  Their manager is competent. This doesn’t mean that we cannot lock f’n button Paul Skenes for $9500 at home where he will NOT give up a HR tonight, he WILL strike out 6 batters and he will pitch 6 full innings.  His ceiling score is not a 100, but his floor score is.  He’s DK #1 play. CRISTOPHER SANCHEZ (DK: $9800) Here is your ceiling play today.  His change-up is where the Cubs are likely to not get much damage done.  Bregman, Hoerner, Suzuki, Happ, Swanson, Shaw — all take a big dip here & finally going on the road away from Wrigley has been a dip for the historical Cubs here in prior seasons too.  Sanchez got hit a lot in San Francisco, he should get locked back in tonight. EURY PEREZ (DK: $8300, FD: $8500) Perez gets nearly 30% whiff rate on his slider against lefties.  With Olson, Albies & Baldwin likely being free swinging tonight I like his chances of being able to get out of any jams he puts himself in with walks.  And if you are aware of the Braves dropping double digits last night on a showdown slate, then you surely should know that they’re the exact type of team who is […]

Happy Birthday to the Philly Phinatic.  It’s time for my sometimes annual Mascot Breakdown Article, ranking all 30 (and then some) mascots out there into tiers.   THE “THATS NOT REALLY A MASCOT” TIER #30.  LOU the SEAL – SF Giants Here’s why I am ranking Lou the Seal dead last.  The more I think about it, the less anyone actually knows who the Giants mascot is.  In fact, if you polled 30 random people and said who is Lou the Seal related too, they would think you are talking about Seal’s daughter who is named Lou.  That’s not a good association here.  Furthermore, a team as well established with Baseball history as the Giants and a fantastic ballpark, excellent broadcasters and good fans does not need a mascot.  He looks like he is your drunk old, overweight Uncle who has no kids and 3 restraining orders from local Elementary schools for looking creepy at kids.  He’s a seal.  There’s nothing interesting here.  Rank, 30th. #29.  THE LA ANGELS – No Mascot I guess it’s a California thing here that either you have a really good mascot history or you have no mascot at all.  I am sorry, but the Rally Monkey just does not count.  The Angels actually do not list an official mascot.  But yet, I still have them ahead of the Giants. #28.  LA DODGERS – No Mascot I can only assume that they do not want to make Vin Scully roll over in his grave and disgrace the organization with something bad and for fear of messing up they have not officially named one yet #27.  SLIDER (GUARDIANS) The Cleveland Baseball Team created slider in an attempt to copy the Philly Phinatic. They have failed miserably in this regard. Along with the name change from the Indians to Guardians and removing Chief Wahoo as well, this is just a disaster that should have had the plug pulled many years ago.   NICE TRY TIER #26.  DANDY – THE ONE AND ONLY YANKEE MASCOT The Yankees should not and shall never have a mascot.  And I give the Dodgers credit for staying true in their own right on that, but at the same time I do want to recognize some level of greatness that the Yankees had with ‘Dandy’ (1979-1981). Imagine being a kid and going to see the Yankees and having your Dad or Grandfather or […]

WEATHER All clear   RANGER SUAREZ (DK: $8300) Very contrarian at the top for me tonight – welcome to Ranger Suarez night and this is good because it’ll get Red Sox fans thinking he was a good signing for a little bit before he winds up getting murdered the rest of the season. LOGAN WEBB (DK: $9200) The reliable Logan Webb getting for sure 100+ pitches vs the Orioles is going to result in a positive score that you just take and say thank you.  He’s the most consistent thing out there & the Orioles not going off for 10 runs on him is about as reliable here too. LUIS CASTILLO (DK: $9000) Yordan owns him, but otherwise being at home is likely enough to offset any risk there.   GUARDIANS In no scenario should Martin Perez still be a viable starting option in the year of 2026.  Temps in the low 80’s here as well, ball should carry better and Cleveland’s gonna feel like they are in the Bahamas after being in Ohio the past week.  Of course, they’re probably going to the strip clubs after the game, so that also helps… Rhys Hoskins Jose Ramirez Angel Martinez   ROCKIES / PADRES Such a fun series so far.  We have German Marquez up against his former team and this is in PETCO.  They’re gonna smash him and yet still find a way to lose in extras. Hunter Goodman Fernando Tatis Jr.   BREWERS Death.  Taxes.  Brewers on Saturday nights? Will Contreras Sal Frelick   CATCHER Hunter Goodman William Contreras Bo Naylor   FIRST BASE Rhys Hoskins Rafael Devers   SECOND BASE Edouard Julien Ozzie Albies Brice Turang   THIRD BASE Jose Ramirez Austin Riley Miguel Andujar   SHORTSTOP Trevor Story Hye-seong Kim Literally, anyone….   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Fernando Tatis Jr. Mickey Moniak Roman Anthony Sal Frelick   OUTFIELD – Tier II Christian Yelich Jackson Merrill Joc Pederson Randy Arozarena   Rhys Hoskins – 1B – Cleveland Guardians – Chairman of The Dongers Club Fernando Tatis Jr – OF – San Diego Padres Hunter Goodman – C – Rockies Trevor Story – SS – Red Sox   BETS Texas Rangers ML Rockies / Padres OVER 8.5

There is going to be a MAIN slate article for the 7 game night slate later today and this one will cover the early window of action.  The only game that the lords of DK and FD have not graced us with is the Yankees and Rays at 6:10 PM EST.   WEATHER All clear this afternoon. My anticipation is that some are going to try and hype up the White Sox / Royals game as being ideal hitting conditions & yes the fences being moved in does help when we have 70+ degrees and wind blowing out.  It’s a trap.   I present to you three guys who are going to get through 6 innings today.  None of them should give up more than 2 ER and each should have 5 strikeouts.  That, my friends, is good enough for what we are going to use on hitting choices. CASEY MIZE (DK: $8000) The Marlins are pesky.  The 1-3 in this lineup are good enough to make them a respectable team – but it’s not gonna play well for the ball to carry in Comerica today & Mize being a heavy ground ball pitcher just needs his defense to not make a bunch of mistakes & this is a straight path to 6 innings of good pitching. EDWARD CABRERA (DK: $8700) Toss up between Cabrera and Ashcraft for the second Wrigley under of this weekend before Sunday’s offensive fireworks hit 1060 West Addison.  Both are fine, Cabrera should be the cleaner one if he can keep his walks under control. BRAXTON ASHCRAFT (DK: $7800) Dont mind Ashcraft much here either, but the strikeouts might not be as consistent as they were vs Baltimore.   PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES Tomorrow is a big day for the Phillies & for the Dongers Club.  It’s the annual Phinatic Birthday Celebration which means we get an article full of mascot references and GIFs and hopefully the Phinatic has a wonderful birthday party this year. As a gift, the Diamondbacks (who I’ll tip the hand on my mascot rankings and just say he’s not a bad mascot, but he is just not the right mascot) are giving the Phillies Brandon Pfaadt, a guy who wants to throw a sinker to get batters out but struggles at time with that. The Phillies.  Well, they’re a very good sinker hitting team.  This should wind up being a tough spot […]