Today is June 14th, which is the anniversary of a very dark dark day in New York Mets history.  June 14th, as I am sure you recall, is the day when Keith Hernandez was FALSELY accused of spitting on two innocent Mets fans leaving the Stadium.  It was not Keith Hernandez who did this act, but actually pitcher Roger McDowell who committed the loogie act from behind the bushes. [spacer height=”20px”] [spacer height=”20px”] Meanwhile At DratKings …  We have reached the point of the season when the pricing algo for hitters turns into pure garbage every single night.  We should not have a $4k difference on hitters, let alone a $2500 difference on hitters with similar qualities on a nightly basis, but that’s what they do over there. Welcome to your theme of the night.  High end SP will fit with the low end value homers. [spacer height=”12px”] WEATHER Got some alert on my phone about Tornado’s or Hail or something like that?  I dunno, sounds ominous, but I don’t think the worst of it is coming for a while, I’d play all games tonight personally. [spacer height=”20px”] DYLAN CEASE (DK/FD) Happy Dylan CYease day as he gets the Detroit Tigers, which is a lineup that will swing and miss with the best of them against Cease.  The Tigers lineup weighted by the top of the order has the lowest AVG, WOBA and SLG metrics on the board tonight and they offer 20-30% strikeout rates depending on how we break it down using Cease’s pitch breakdown. Plus unlike Lance Lynn he isn’t going to be limited and if anything, the White Sox could really use a long outing from him tonight.  Cease is a VERY good pitcher — not quite elite — but he is ELITE vs bad teams like the Tigers, Royals, Orioles, etc…. TONY GONSOLIN Hey Tony, thanks for coming down to the office.  Listen, uh, we’re gonna need you to go ahead and be the Ace of this staff now?  Mmkay?  Thanks.  That’d be great. Angels/Dodgers definitely feels like it should have some juice in it today but with the pricing the way it is, you’ll find that you can play Cease + one of Gonsolin/Bieber or Cole and nobody wants Cole vs the Rays and NOBODY wants Bieber in Coors do they?  Well, you might but the Angels are still striking out at a ridiculous rate, […]

WEATHER I don’t see any major issues and very warm temps in Texas and Arizona, so I would suspect that both roofs are closed. No major wind anywhere and it’s 99 degrees in St. Louis for the Pirates and Cardinals, but at under aint one. [spacer height=”20px”] Would be nice if tonight we can not have our 1a pitcher leave in the first inning and our 1b pitcher not have the worst defense in the history behind him.  Just a small ask on this Monday in June, thank you. The marquee game today features the best pitcher in the NL right now Sandy Alcantara vs Aaron Nola and the Phillies in Citizens Bank Park.  Sandy has had some rough starts in Philly and the Marlins have hit well in Philly historically. We also have the return of Lance Lynn tonight for the White Sox.  I would plan for him throwing 50-60 pitches with some potential for more but also potential that they pull him before starting an inning when he sits at 58 pitches or so.  He is only $5,500 on FanDuel because … well, I don’t know why he is only $5,500 on FanDuel.  There are going to be some who say he is a must own there.  They are wrong.  FanDuel is a ONE pitcher site which has a more flat pricing structure (I honestly prefer that we don’t have a $2k difference between guys like Acuna and Ozuna), and so it’s easier to build hitting options around a singular pitcher.  Thus, there’s no reason to ever take a pitcher who has a hard ceiling of 30 points on FanDuel when there ARE multiple pitchers who are very likely to push towards a 50.  You are automatically giving away 20 points to a good portion of the field when the benefit is absolutely NOTHING.  You aren’t “able to fit the bats in”, because you can fit the bats in with a 7k or 8k pitcher who does not have a pitch count limit as well. So no, I am not bothering with Lance Lynn on FanDuel at $5,500.  If anything, I might use the leverage of Grossman & Meadows against a SP coming off the IL on a pitch count limit who people might be touting up as a must own.  DK doesn’t matter.  He is priced up there. Thanks for coming to my TED talk. [spacer height=”20px”] NOLA […]

A Sunday without Coors on either site and a quiet 3 game afternoon tilt slate today.  So this should be a good Sunday slate which has a little bit of weather that you’ll have to monitor. WEATHER I think all games will end up playing but there will be lingering rain that could come into play at these spots Cubs vs Yankees – Rain could cause slight delay. Diamondbacks vs Phillies – Very light precip chance. We also have some pretty warm spots, including a Dew Point of 84 in Kauffman Stadium, 81 in Busch Stadium and 78 in Truist Park.  Expect some HR boosts today. [spacer height=”20px”] MICHAEL KOPECH The Chicago White Sox remain the biggest waste of talent in the 2022 MLB season.  But in DFS we trust the talent despite the teams struggles and Kopech against the Rangers is a scenario where he’ll need to be their steady force. I don’t think Kopech has a problem with Seager today and so only Marcus Semien likely has a chance to hit him hard in a lineup which has lots of strikeouts at the bottom. RANGER SUAREZ Suarez is dominant against lefties, although early this season he was iffy vs them, but that’s what he’s going to do.   The Diamondbacks are a lefty heavy team who is at the end of a long road trip and ready to get on a plane and go back to Arizona. So it should go something like this…  Ground ball to short, throw to first, one away…  Pop fly caught by Bohm in foul territory, 2 down.  And now the 1-2 pitch, Strike 3 looking on the outside corner.  Suarez goes 1-2-3 in the first off just 9 pitches and the Phillies are coming to bat. Rinse, repeat for 8 innings… The streak continues today with a 1-hit (Ketel Marte double), 5 strike-out shutout by Suarez and whoever they decide to let pitch the ninth inning today. JUSTIN VERLANDER It’s highly unlikely that you’ll find an article today which does not mention Justin Verlander simply because the choices are very thin today.  The Astros should have put up about 20 runs already in this series but just haven’t had any breaks go there way and this feels alot like the Pirates/Dodgers series from a week or so ago. But even if there is weird stuff causing them to get swept at home by […]

There are three “slates” today. 2PM:  Three games.  This is considered the Early on the Dashboard 4PM:  This is considered the MAIN on the Dashboard.  This is FanDuel’s MAIN which includes the 7pm games as well (larger slate) and on DraftKings it includes 8 games. 7PM:  This is considered the LATE and is really only worthwhile on DraftKings. There is a double header today between the Padres and Rockies, Game 1 is on both the DraftKings and FanDuel 4PM slates.  Game 2 is on the DraftKings 7PM slate.  MacKenzie Gore is pitching in game 2, so that’s a bummer on FanDuel. This article is covering the 4PM Main slate, which will include analysis for the FanDuel/7pm games. It’s okay if you are confused…  I was too. [spacer height=”20px”] Here’s the main games 4PM Diamondbacks (Bumgarner) vs Phillies (Wheeler) Brewers (Lauer) vs Nationals (Corbin) Pirates (Thompson) vs Braves (Morton) Athletics (Montas) vs Guardians (Plesac) Blue Jays (Gausman) vs Tigers (Brieske) Marlins (Garrett) vs Astros (Valdez) Orioles (Wells) vs Royals (Lynch) [spacer height=”20px”] 7PM Dodgers (Kershaw) vs Giants (Long/Bullpen) Yes, there could/should be some shadows that come into play in this game and it’s an interesting one to consider on the DK night slate later tonight but for the FanDuel MAIN afternoon slate I have zero desire to touch this game. Cubs (Swarmer) vs Yankees (Montgomery) Similar scenario here, except without the shadows.  These teams played stupid baseball last night not knowing how to play the extra innings rules and thus burned through some relievers.  Look for Montgomery to pitch very well in a low scoring Yankees win. [spacer height=”20px”] WEATHER All games play. [spacer height=”20px”] ZACK WHEELER Wheeler is back off paternity leave and will look to keep the Phillies hot streak going.  He definitely should win the game today with the way the offense is swinging the bats and the Diamondbacks will continue to swing and miss as they have lately which puts Wheeler in a position to have a double digit strikeout game. KEVIN GAUSMAN The Tigers are the worst offense in the league right now.  Worse than the Athletics, worse than the Brewers, worse than your local little league team who shows up with fancy uniforms and 8 coaches but plays like the bad news bears. Lately on DraftKings it’s been better off taking the mid range pitching but it’s very tempting today to just lock in on […]

Overview The trucks hit the road course of Sonoma Raceway this week with a mix of Camping World Truck Series regulars, NASCAR Cup Series regulars, and road-course ringers. Sonoma is a 12-turn asphalt 2.520-mile road course. The truck series hasn’t been here since 1998 so the Cup regulars and road-course ringers will have even more […]

I believe this is the first Friday of the MLB 2022 season where we have 15 games that all start after 7PM and to make the situation even better we have no games which are expected to be PPD.  It’s not officially Summer yet, but this is about as close to summer perfection as we can have. If only the Cubs were playing this afternoon at home. Tonight’s pitching gives us the return of Tylor but no Tyler, a Zac but no Zach or Zack or Zackary.  There’s three Luis’, a Jose and a Glenn.  A Bruce, a Dick, a Paul, an Erick, a Joe, Jakob and of course, America’s favorite Chad. Oh yes, we also have Luis Castillo pitching on a Friday. [spacer height=”20px”] TOP TWO JOE MUSGROVE Musgrove is at home where he always pitches well and is facing the Rockies who have a 22% weighted K% and 23% over the last week.  All total Musgrove is projected to be near the top on total strikeouts tonight and has very few bats in this lineup which can take him deep. AARON ASHBY The Brewers will look to get a win to end their losing streak off the arm of one of their top arms, even if he is the youngest of the group.  Ashby has a 34.3% CSW% and has sustained it consistently through each of his starts.  That should offset a low strikeout team like the Nationals who are seeing him for the first time as a starter. DONT MIND TRISTON McKENZIE I would project McKenzie in the same range as Ashby tonight but with a little less risk and less upside.  He saw Oakland back in early May and since then has only gone deeper and deeper into games.  The young kid should get lots of whiffs off his heater and put the Athletics away with his breaking pitches tonight. CONTRARIAN PAIR WALKER BUEHLER I still believe in Walker and the Giants offense is ice cold which is going to offer us a great late night hammer opportunity for Buehler to start to get right.  I am not confident enough in him right now to say this is his break out start for 2022, but it is going to be a start in the right direction. ROANSY CONTRERAS Atlanta is still striking out plenty and they’ll probably be a little side-ways facing Contreras who has proven […]

FanDuel has included the return of Stephen Strasburg to the mound as the Nationals vs Marlins game is on their slate but not on DraftKings which is only a five game night slate today. There are no weather issues today. [spacer height=”20px”] SHOHEI OHTANI The streak has to end at some point here (says the guy who has been saying this for about a week now).  The Angels turn to Ohtani, who is always very good at home and might have the benefit of shadows in the first inning. NICK PIVETTA Just take the game stack out in SoCal tonight for pitching arms.  We’re buying into Ohtani because he dominated the Red Sox once before and we’re buying into Pivetta because … have you seen that Angels lineup? [spacer height=”20px”] My Fade Max Fried … The Fried spidey senses are not liking this game vs the Pirates tonight. [spacer height=”20px”] [spacer height=”20px”] Ramirez, Naylor, Rosario A guy who struggles vs lefties pitching in Cleveland? Where do I collect the winnings.  All in on the Tribe tonight and the other side should have a nice sneaky get right game here as well.  Good game stack scenario. [spacer height=”20px”] Witt, Melendez The theme tonight is finding value in a full stack build and the Royals have that + Jordan Lyles has given up 7 HR on the road this season (basically all his HR allowed).  This is a big park yes, but the Royals can find the gaps seeing Lyles the second time this year. [spacer height=”20px”] Judge, Rizzo Stanton Bundy has held visiting opponents to just a .184 AVG, .268 SLG and .086 ISO in Target Field this season. That’s cute…  Good for him [spacer height=”20px”] Today’s BOOST+ players: Oscar Gonzalez, Ryan Mountcastle, KeBryan Hayes, Marcell Ozuna, Tyler Nevin, Bobby Witt Jr. [spacer height=”20px”] CATCHER Gary Sanchez MJ Melendez Travis d’Arnaud [spacer height=”20px”] FIRST BASE Matt Olson Josh Naylor Anthony Rizzo [spacer height=”20px”] SECOND BASE Jed Lowrie Cesar Hernandez (FD) Andres Gimenez [spacer height=”20px”] THIRD BASE Jose Ramirez KeBryan Hayes [spacer height=”20px”] SHORTSTOP Bobby Witt Jr Amed Rosario Elvis Andrus [spacer height=”20px”] OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore Aaron Judge Giancarlo Stanton Bryan Reynolds Andrew Benintendi OUTFIELD – Value Oscar Gonzalez Chad Pinder Trevor Larnach [spacer height=”20px”] The Dongers Club Bobby Witt Jr – SS – Royals – Chairman of The Dongers Club Jose Ramirez – 3B – Guardians Gary Sanchez – C […]

The good news this Thursday afternoon is that all four games will play without weather issues.  The three games which are outdoors are going to have 70+ degree temps with wind blowing out at a reasonable rate in all three spots. The fourth game is down at Tropicana Field in Tampa. [spacer height=”20px”] This is a slate with plenty of options at pitching and DraftKings but I am warning you nobody is going to pitch 7 innings of shutout ball out of these options.  There’s a bomb here or there just waiting to smack each pitcher in the face.  So we are prioritizing strikeouts. DYLAN CEASE As I go through each game to find hitters that I like I found that there are less Dodgers which I want to use today than any other team.  Crazy, right?  This is a get away game and right now both guys that Cease could struggle with — Mookie & Freddie — are quiet offensively and I hope maybe one of them gets a get away rest game here. TYLER MAHLE Well, fuck me sideways.  The highest strike out probability today has to be Mahle who is very cheap on DraftKings for what he has the potential to do.  He’ll give up 2 homers and strike out 6+. CORBIN BURNES Milwaukee might need Burnes to hit as well because right now they aren’t doing that, so Burnes will have to be great for them to end the Phillies winning streak. Outside of Kyle Schwarber or maybe Castellanos I don’t see anyone on Philly who is going to repeat what they did the last two nights.  Any damage Burnes’ allows via HR’s will be offset by a good strikeout game. [spacer height=”20px”] My Fade Shane McClanahan [spacer height=”20px”] Despite three decent weather games none of them have extremely high Dewpoint ratings.  The highest by a slight margin is Cincinnati, which also features the two pitchers most likely to give up homers today. If these four games were on a larger slate I would likely be looking elsewhere to push out a “stack” option, but with just four games the chances of a single team winning everything increases. [spacer height=”20px”] Votto, Pham, Stephenson Joey Votto has definitely been on fire of late and on FanDuel early you will want to play him no doubt where you can use two 1B if you so choose.  Zach Davies […]

A ten game mid week Wednesday night slate today with a couple rain spots. [spacer height=”20px”] WEATHER Rangers at Guardians – This is the only big weather/PPD spot on the slate and they already had one game washed out and converted into a double-header.  I assume this one starts on time but if it delays to start then we are highly cautious of using anyone here. Athletics at Braves – Storms possible.  Game plays though. [spacer height=”20px”] CHRIS BASSITT Nice little pitchers duel between Bassitt and Manaea tonight in PETCO park with both sides likely getting strong pitching outings from these new faces. It’s Bassitt though who I believe gets the win and I am more confident picking on the Padres than the Mets. IAN ANDERSON Wow.  I realize that Anderson’s overall body of work in 2022 has not been spectacular but he also doesn’t carry much risk each time he takes the mound.  So given that Anderson is a durable arm who throws 95-105 pitches each start and is facing a bad offense in Oakland, there’s no reason he should be $6,400 on DraftKings.  I get that maybe there’s a little concern with the whole “hey, what does DK algo know” here, but worst case scenario he finished with a 10.  Best case he finishes with a 23.  The middle ground is worth it alone. SHANE BIEBER It feels like every time Bieber is scheduled to pitch there is weather that could push him back.  Outside of one blow up disaster spot vs the Blue Jays this year Bieber has been just fine and has been very stout against lefties at home which is kinda important in that park. These teams are coming off the DH yesterday and so picking on them today for pitching options in a game with the wind blowing in too makes sense. The looming weather concerns have me bumping Bieber down to #3 tonight. [spacer height=”20px”] Pitching Nuggets I think both Aaron Nola (despite his reputation for being bad on the road) and Tony Gosolin are going to pitch well, but not as confidently as the three above.  If Bieber gets knocked off due to rain then they slide in both as 3a & 3b choices. I am not touching Nate Eovaldi even against the ice cold Angels. [spacer height=”20px”] The Braves and Yankees, two teams with pop facing some below ace level pitching will both […]

Happy Art Vandelay day again as Jason Alexander will pitch for Milwaukee vs the Phillies — who all seem to rake in Miller Park for what it’s worth. Today’s theme is that we have a bunch of notable players vs former teams today on the hitting side. [spacer height=”20px”] WEATHER All games should wind up playing tonight but the Tigers/Pirates game has potential for thunderstorms in it. [spacer height=”20px”] This is definitely a quality pitching night compared to the disaster we had last night. KYLE WRIGHT There are still a few too many walks in Kyle Wright’s game for me to put him into the Ace tier but the Oakland lineup isn’t going to suddenly start walking a ton and after Tony Kemp and Jed Lowrie everyone here has a 20% or higher DCPA strikeout match-up vs KW who has only given up 3 HR on the season as well. RANGER SUAREZ Milwaukee is expected to have Hunter Renfroe and Willy Adames back in the line-up tonight which greatly helps their chances against Suarez.  The problem for the Brewers is that those are literally the only two guys outside of maybe Andrew McCutchen lucking into a lead off homer that have a shot off Suarez.  Milwaukee is a LH heavy lineup and Suarez is lock down vs lefties. ALEK MANOAH or Justin Verlander vs Seattle… Both Manoah and Verlander are trending in the right direction for a massive game.  Manoah almost had it last game before giving up late damage to the White Sox as he was going for the CGSO.  Tonight vs the Royals he has almost no trouble hitters in the lineup from the left side that he has to worry about. While the Royals might overall be a low K% team, they do tend to strike out when facing pitchers that have high end arsenal stuff and Manoah’s fastball ranks up there in terms of movement. [spacer height=”20px”] Pitching Nuggets Jameison Taillon … continues to pitch well for the Yankees and what is interesting about him is historically when he rates well on the Model he does poor and when he rates in the middle he does well.  He rates in the middle tonight but is also now up to $9,500 on DK.  No sense using that much on a low K guy like him. Tarik Skubal … Might seem like the “how can this guy fail” option but […]