This is just my quick analysis on the MLB All-Star game tonight.  I won’t be out here trying to pound my chest over an exhibition game, but it’s a fun spot to maybe place some bets or do a Showdown lineup or ten… AMERICAN LEAGUE HITTERS BO Starter Pos Backup(s)* 1 Kwan LF Duran, Castro […]

A new set of Home Run Derby rules have been announced and while the old bracket format was cool for betting head to heads, this new format feels like it is more fair and balanced to pick the overall winner.  Here are the highlights to the rule changes. The Knockout/Bracket style is eliminated in the […]

We finish off the “1st Half” of the season today with a 10 game MAIN slate and then a 4 game Tilt/Afternoon slate.  There is no Sunday Night Baseball today because the “Island” game is at 11:30 today as MLB doesn’t want anyone playing the night before the break. WEATHER I would be shocked if any game got PPD today.   Just a slight chance of rain in Philadelphia, Detroit and New York (Mets). It’s not great… I have a hard time picking TWO pitchers I like, let alone three.  Heck, I really have a hard time finding ONE pitcher that I think can get to that magical 20+ DK FPTS today.  So, the bar is lowered, we are not looking for that magical 20 spot today bur rather if you can build around a pair of pitchers who probably go 5 innings, get a win and are not terrible along the way then it will be good enough. JAKE IRVIN (DK: $9000, FD: $9200) Picking on the Brewers who have started to unravel and will soon lose their grip on the NL Central.  Irvin is not a 9k pitcher, but he’s been pitching like one up until having to face the divisional Mets twice in a row.  Going out of the division will benefit him and like I said, the Brewers aren’t scaring me much right now unless Contreras/Adames get going & Irvin is very solid vs RHH. MITCH KELLER (DK: $9600, FD: 10,400) If you remove two starts against the Cardinals (who know him well) then Mitch Keller is arguably one of the top pitchers over the last two months.  He’ll be coming off a 107 PC outing at home vs the Mets but that was six days ago and his prior 100+ PC games did not result in a follow on bad outing.  Plus, he isn’t someone who relies solely on over powering hitters go have success.  So long as he keeps walks down he can minimize damage and avoid trouble on a hot & windy day in Chicago. OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS The Phillies will open with Orion Kerkering and then turn to Michael Mercado, which I think is a great move but with some risk as Kerking wasn’t “locked in” yesterday.  That said, this could be a sign as to what Philly is going to do a lot in the second half to extend their rotation out and Kerking as […]

We have a three game “Early” Turbo slate today and then this MAIN 8 game article followed up with a smaller 5 game night slate. WEATHER There aren’t any games at big risk of PPD today If you are playing DFS by just staring your bald head at a spreadsheet on your computer screen, or solely believe in the power of projections and analytics, then sure, go ahead and use Luis Gil against a cold Orioles lineup or even ride Grayson Rodriguez on the other side in that game.  If you do not live under a rock and have touched grass in the last 24 hours then you know those are two of the most dangerous plays on the board today after how yesterday’s game ended. Unfortunately things turn very sideways on the rest of the slate, but it’s not that there aren’t diamonds in the rough to pluck out.  We have rookie Tyler Phillips getting a start for the Phillies after he pitched 4 solid innings in relief on Sunday.  He’s a south Jersey native and looked kinda nice against Atlanta but you aren’t getting much of a DK discount here and no chance I trust him to go more than 4 again, nor will it be as clean.  Long term though, they might have something here. GAVIN WILLIAMS (DK: $7800, FD: $6700) Last night was a Rays Friday & Under.  Today is a Guardians Saturday & Under.  Tomorrow is probably the over in this series.  That’s just how it works in the universe sometimes (okay, I cheated and looked and saw Ben Lively going tomorrow).  Everyone loved Gavin Williams coming into 2024, and for good reason.  He’s now making his third start of the year after an injury and looked like himself in the last outing against a similarly mediocre/bad/free swinging Tigers team.  If it was his first start, we would run away, but in the third outing he has to trust his secondary stuff more today and that’s where he should be able to roll through the Rays. NATE EOVALDI (DK: $9600, FD: $9800) DFS rules on DraftKings require that we use two pitchers, so I had to go with someone that I can honestly trust.  Outside of Yordan Alvarez I don’t think Eovaldi will be too scared today and maybe, just maybe, they’ll let him pitch over 90 pitches? ZACK LITTELL (DK: $8000, FD: $8600) Going through […]

WEATHER Two spots to monitor tonight for delays or even PPD risk.  I would think both wait things out and get their games in though. Rockies at Mets Yankees at Orioles   JOE RYAN (DK: $9800, FD: $9800) Ryan is only $400 off Sonny Gray as the high end pitcher tonight but he’s got the Giants in San Francisco – that is a little easier to stomach than a pitcher in the Cubs/Cardinals rivalry in hot St. Louis. COLE RAGANS (DK: $8500, FD: $10,200) While Boston has been hitting well of late and hits well at home, they are still prone to whiff a good amount and are still a LH heavy lineup that needs another RH bat to balance things out more.  The park isn’t always favorable to lefties pitchers, but the strength of Ragans against Devers, Durran, Yoshida, Abreu if they’re all in should benefit him to deliver for Kansas City tonight. GARRETT CROCHET (DK: $10,300, FD: $11,000) I really put a little too much emphasis on when a team has or has not seen a specific hand split of late and in the case of the Pirates they have only had 13 PA in the last week against LHP.  Combining that with the nasty ability of Crochet is probably not to their advantage tonight so we could be looking at a real easy 30 point game from him. OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS Best Under 8K Crowd includes:  Tyler Anderson, Yonny Chirinos, and the guy below I kinda want to say Marco Gonzales is gonna be a nice cheap SP2 today, but how much we get out of him coming off IL assuming he is the Pirates starter.   TOP TEAMS ROYALS:  Bobby Witt, Salvador Perez, Maikel Garcia There is no specific reason why the Royals got so cold on the road in May and June because they should hit well when going into smaller parks like Fenway where they can just hit line drive after line drive off the monster for hits.  The signs are pointing to them turning it around on the road as they go to wrap up a long road trip this weekend and I’m gonna be a homer expecting some big offensive games. MARLINS:  Jazz Chisholm Jr, Jesus Sanchez, Josh Bell, Jake Burger, BDLC Big time break for the Marlins avoiding Hunter Greene here, they’ll feast on Carson Spiers and with some good high […]

WEATHER All clear   NESTOR CORTES (DK: $8300, FD: $9200) I think we need to trust the Cortes is back on track after a very good start vs the Red Sox.  He is always better at home, so going on the road could quickly counter that, but the Rays aren’t a potent lineup against southpaws, 5-9 should strikeout quite a bit tonight and it’s easy to expect Cortes to go 6+. JUSTIN STEELE (DK: $8000, FD: $8900) Can the Cubs really go into Camden and sweep the Orioles??  The CUBS??  Yes, they can, and they’ll only have a shot of doing this if Steele pitches lights out. MAX FRIED (DK: $8800, FD: $9100) Not sure what we are doing with the prices on Fried, but I do not mind taking a west coast guy with the roof closed tonight in Arizona.  Another possible sweep scenario where the team is gonna need their lefty starter to dominate.  Brandon Pfaadt should be decent for Arizona as well. OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS Don’t hate Shane Baz, dont see the reason to go there though. No for me on Aaron Nola.   TOP TEAMS ASTROS:  Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Jon Singleton Roddery Munoz, automatic stack against.  Yordan left last night so we’ll see if he is in tonight. SECOND TIER TEAMS MARLINS:  Jazz Chisholm, Jesus Sanchez, Josh Bell RED SOX:  Tyler O’Neill, Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers   CATCHER Yainer Diaz Shea Langeliers Connor Wong   FIRST BASE Freddie Freeman Jon Singleton Josh Bell   SECOND BASE Jose Altuve Jorge Polanco Nico Hoerner   THIRD BASE Alex Bregman Jake Burger Rafael Devers   SHORTSTOP Trea Turner Xavier Edwards Jeremy Pena   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Tyler O’Neill Jesus Sanchez Teoscar Hernandez Julio Rodriguez   Freddie Freeman – 1B – Dodgers – Chairman of The Dongers Club Tyler O’Neill – OF – Boston Red Sox Yainer Diaz – C – Astros Jose Altuve – 2B – Astros Jesus Sanchez – OF – Marlins Trea Turner – SS – Phillies Rafael Devers – 3B – Red Sox Julio Rodriguez – OF – Mariners BONUS … Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Dodgers   TOP BETS Dodgers ML

WEATHER All clear – very warm everywhere.   Welcome to Paul Skenes day, he gets to go up against the Brewers and is impossible to ignore in my mind on this four gamer.  I would counter him with Aaron Civale as your SP2 in a nice game stack as Civale makes home Brewers debut. PAUL SKENES AARON CIVALE     FAVORITE TEAM TIGERS:  Colt Keith, Matt Vierling, Riley Greene, Wenceel Perez It’s fascinating to see Spencer Howard get a shot with another club and boy is Cleveland really gonna have to do some of their magic to restore this clown.  It’s gonna take a long time for me to not want to stack against him.   BEST HR UPSIDE ROCKIES / REDS:  Ryan McMahon, Spencer Steer HR Upside is tremendous in this game, I would focus on that more so than going a full 1-4 type stack on these teams.  Hunter Greene’s tremendous splits vs LHH isn’t a concern for me in using McMahon.   SECONDARY STACKS Nationals and Mets doesn’t give me the high scoring vibes today.  Gore and Peterson both faired well when they met about 10 days ago down in Washington and I would lean on that being the case more so today, but given how both teams can hit LHP fairly well there is definitely some upside in guys like Lane Thomas, Harold Ramirez, JD Martinez and Francisco Lindor.  Lean on the Mets side more than the Nationals.   CATCHER Elias Diaz Francisco Alvarez Keibert Ruiz   FIRST BASE Spencer Steer Pete Alonso   SECOND BASE Colt Keith Jonathan India   THIRD BASE Ryan McMahon Jose Ramirez   SHORTSTOP Francisco Lindor Oneil Cruz   OUTFIELD Riley Greene Matt Vierling Charlie Blackmon JD Martinez Angel Martinez   Ryan McMahon – 3B – Colorado Rockies – Chairman of The Dongers Club Riley Greene – OF – Tigers     BETS Rockies/Reds OVER 9 Tigers ML

TURBO SLATE THOUGHTS There is a good four game TURBO slate today after the 2 game Double-Header/PPD make up slate in the early afternoon. On the Turbo Slate you have Cubs/Orioles with mid game storms possible and insanely high humidity and heat.  This is a terrible spot for both Imanaga and Burnes — I really believe Ian Happ or Cody Bellinger could hit 2 out tonight for the Cubs. Guardians at Tigers could be delayed but should play, with Tanner Bibee being your SP1 on the short Turbo slate. Mariners at Padres is a mid afternoon PETCO game, expect the ball to carry a little better here and the Seattle lefties to have a good game.  I expect over 7.5 to be a bet I take. Yankees at Rays .. who cares.  Seriously, this is a low scoring game. MAIN SLATE NOTES G2 Royals at Cardinals is only on DraftKings Neither site has included the Twins/White Sox second game because it’s not a day/night DH. WEATHER Dodgers at Phillies – This game is at 7:05, which tells me that it must be on ESPN or MLB Network as a Showcase game, but thank you for including it on the main slate.  Big wind out to left field here and it’s obviously hotter than tits on a monkey. There’s also wind OUT in many other spots, and when I say wind out, I mean over 10 mph.  Here’s those spots — Fenway Park, Great American Ballpark & Citi Field.   We have some BAAAD pitching out there tonight my friends.   Combined with the still tired bullpens and everyone having played last night (good for hitters), we could see some 13 and 14 spots put up on the scoreboards tonight.  The one counter argument is MLB hitters getting their brains into vacation mode before the all-star break but I wouldn’t expect that until Friday. LOGAN WEBB (DK: $9800, FD: $10,100) This is a good game to consider both pitchers in.  While Bassitt vs a lineup that likely has 5-6 lefties in it looks like he could get blown up, I counter you with him being a good pitcher in big parks.  The safer route though is gonna be Webb.  He started the year with some inconsistency but has really found his groove and there’s nobody I have more confidence in going 6+ innings with 100 pitches, 5-6 strikeouts and limited damage.  On […]

WEATHER Royals at Cardinals:  Already PPD Rockies at Reds:  There is a long history of when storms/rain happens in Cincinnati the ball carries a TON more and in that small ballpark it can lead to some really high scoring games.  The risk here though is that they might PPD this one entirely, but the field does drain very well and I cannot remember the last time a game in Cincinnati which started or waited did not end up playing.  They’ll play. Twins at White Sox:  Storms/Rain/Consistently Bad.  This is also a pass for me, I like both pitchers but we can’t trust them in the weather.   ZAC GALLEN (DK: $8900, FD: $9700) Obviously we look at Chris Sale getting bumped back and ask why is he not rolling over to today as our top pick?  Because we didnt love him yesterday either and now we’ve got ourselves a near full slate of options.  It does lessen ownership for those who want to play that game, but I really like Gallen and the price against a K% high team in Atlanta is very desirable.  The Riley and road catcher in Chase Field Murphy homers came last night – which leads us to Gallen needing to not mess up to Matt Olson and Eddie Rosario — who remains out of the player pool on both sites for some reason — and he’ll finish with a 8+ strikeout performance.  Gallen at home is good to go. LOGAN GILBERT (DK: $9700, FD: $10200) I promise you that Gilbert allows a solo HR to either Profar or Merrill today.  That won’t bother us though as the Padres as a whole are not hitting RHH very well and over their last ~200 PA have almost a 40% strikeout rate.  Gilbert’s not tired with his PC being below 100 each of the last three outings and the newly minted all-star should shine in PETCO tonight.  His K Prop sits at just 4.5, which is an easy over as well. OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS Yusei Kikuchi – I can’t.  I just can’t.  Sure, this is a west coast Asian pitcher.  Whatever.  The regression has been building back up on him and there’s gonna be a ton of HR seeking RHH at the top of the lineup waiting to Ambush him.  Not worth ruining my night with a 10PM Notification of 2 HR allowed. Bailey Ober and Nick Lodolo […]

Broken down by pricing tiers, Mark Farris outlines his favorite PGA DFS plays on DraftKings