Thankfully both DraftKings and FanDuel built a full all day 3 game slate for this horrific MLB schedule.  The games are actually pretty good as well and it’s nice to have a slate for once where you can watch each individual game (or just glance and pay attention while doing other things) and maybe use late swap as you would like. Let’s run through each game independently first before going through the full picks. ASTROS at BLUE JAYS It’s Hunter Brown, who is pitching great, up against Yariel Rodriguez, who is a modified opener for Toronto.   I say modified, because you’re not gonna get a ton of length out of him, but 3 to 4 IP is almost certain because they gotta get something from him.  If you wanna back Toronto on Canada Day, go right ahead, I say we pound their asses since they are getting a game on July 4th as well.  I like Houston a lot and I don’t see a way to pass up on Brown. NY METS at WASHINGTON James Wood (LHH) will make his debut today and he has power, but as a prospect we’ll be cautious here and I think he’ll bat low in the order.  He’s also not free on DraftKings at $3500, so I don’t see a reason to rush there.  However, I do like the Nats against David Peterson in what I expect could sneak in as a high scoring game.   Peterson and Gore both have SP game stack upside, so in a second lineup do that if I am off here, but there’s gonna be more hitting ownership on the third game and the Nats are crushing lefties while the Mets key batters have good history w/ Gore too. MILWAUKEE vs COLORADO Short slate and a game in Coors?  Fun.  The obvious leverage/pivot/game theory game here is going with Austin Gomber and there’s data to back it up with Milwaukee having a near 40% strikeout projection with the anticipated lineup.  Obviously, in Coors, it can be harder to trust such metrics, but I say you take the Gamble on the Gomber, Austin play as one of your two SP’s.   WEATHER No issues   Not a ton to like and given just three games you’re more into the leverage/game theory mindset than anything else. HUNTER BROWN … Hottest pitcher going on this slate and the other options do not deter […]

Hello from the lake, it’s a great Sunday, it’s hot and the Rangers are not on the main or tilt slate today, so that’s a good thing. The bad news is this.  Tomorrow is depressing.  Shit, Tuesday and Wednesday are somewhat depressing as well.  I’m speaking from a MLB scheduling standpoint because of the 4th of July there’s almost no games tomorrow and no real day slates on Tue/Wed which is just blasphemy for the first week of July.  This is significant of note because with almost everyone having tomorrow off you can maybe see more regulars in the Sunday lineup(s) today and some of the rain games will wait it out possibly.   WEATHER A couple dicey spots today to monitor. Marlins at Phillies … It’s dicey mostly because we have a divisional game, but as noted, no games tomorrow for either team so they should be patient & play. Padres at Red Sox … Same deal here, just not as bad. Astros at Mets … Same situation     HUNTER GREENE (DK: $8500, FD: $9900) … You know, you tout a guy who is decent once all year and thats the game he dominates and now you suddenly feel you are the one who knows him better than the woman who brought him into this world.  That’s me here wanting a piece of another dominant Hunter Greene start.  So long as we don’t make a mistake today to Willson Contreras, we’re gonna have as much upside as Peralta, Suarez and others but less ownership and less salary cost.  He is destroying lefties and should handle Arenado/Goldy. FREDDY PERALTA (DK: $9800, FD: $9700) … First looked here and felt Peralta is a lock for 7 strikeouts — his prop is 7.5, he’s gonna go over it probably now that I think about it more.  A homer or two is not that bad here since he isnt 11k and should have a high strikeout ceiling. TAJ BRADLEY (DK: $8200, FD: $9500) … Normally we do not heavy pick on the Nats for strikeouts, but their rates over the last few days are higher and Tampa pitchers usually do well at home. Other Pitching Notes (i.e. Guys I considered) Garrett Crochet —  Freddy P is just more likely to get there, the price is close and he is fine too. Kyle Freeland — Not the type of guy who can suddenly string […]

OK, I kinda lied yesterday.  There will be just this one MAIN article for the 4:05 slate today as I’ll be driving down to the Lake for a few days.  So I am not likely to touch on the 7PM shorter slate tonight.   WEATHER Wind blowing out to LF in Philly & Boston   AARON NOLA (DK: $8700, FD: $) I have absolutely nothing bad to say about Nola today and neither should you.  Is it warm in an afternoon in a small park?  Sure, okay, fine.  Whatever. JAKE IRVIN (DK: $7300, FD: $) Tampa Bay is winning games, but they’re not insanely dangerous offensively.  Yandy Diaz is riding a long 20 game hit streak and is an ok DFS one off, but otherwise I lean on Irvin to benefit from a swing happy team. MAX FRIED (DK: $8800, FD: $) The headline this afternoon is going to be Paul Skenes against Max Fried, which is just fucking awesome.  I’m flip flopping here, because that Skenes 12 K game through 4 innings is kinda tempting.  I kid, or do I?  Either way, gimme the almost sure thing in Fried. Other Pitching Notes Zac Gallen is back, no reason to jump into it though. Justin Steele is pitching great and could/should be chalky.  This is the spot to slide off the band wagon. Aaron Civale is bait.   PHILLIES Brandon Marsh, Bryson Stott, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos and hell, even David Dahl No Harper, no Schwarber, no problem.  Roddery Munoz is that bad.  Right now he is the worst pitcher making active starts in all of major league baseball and that includes Patrick Corbin & Dallas Keuchel. BREWERS Contreras, Adames, Hoskins Pretty contrarian here, but I expect this to be the game of the day with lots of runs and homers. RED SOX Abreu, Devers, Duran Always go opposite after a blow-out/rout theory in full effect here.  Good weather conditions as well. DIAMONDBACKS Marte, Lourdes, Walker, Grichuck Feels very weird to see a Diamondbacks afternoon game on a Saturday and have it on a MAIN slate.  We have them facing a LHP for the day night in a row and we gotta expect them to do more than just one inning and then an implosion.  Side note:  Their Bullpen is a complete shit show right now so Gallen going more than he should off the IL would not shock me. […]

Thirteen (13) game slate tonight with no Marlins/Phillies/Nationals/Rays.  Expect a full run of content now up to the all-star break with the exception being next Monday, because MLB has decided to give almost the entire league Monday off as they play on Thursday next week for the 4th of July.  Even worse, however, is that the fucking Toronto Blue Jays have an afternoon home game on the 4th of July.  What an absolute MORONIC schedule mistake by MLB.  I am once again letting everyone know that I am available for hire to build the MLB schedule. Thank you. WEATHER Guardians at Royals – Rain throughout the day but a good chance it goes away for the game to play.   This is a pitching slate where you do not need to focus on strikeout metrics as much as you want to focus on a pitcher that is going to get through 6 innings without giving up a TON of damage.  Even with a heavy amount of games, there’s not a ton of flame throwers or guys who can come out and dominate the slate.  Plus we are into that time of season when it’s warm and the pitchers are slowing down in their ability to just come out and light things up in the first three innings.  The ones who are winning are those who can go deep into the game. LOGAN GILBERT (DK: $9900, FD: $10500) When Gilbert gets into trouble it is generally with home runs biting him and the Twins certainly bring that risk tonight as they’re top 10 in HR in the league and on this slate have the fourth highest ISO.  They also have the second highest K% and Gilbert is great at home and pitching better than just about anyone else in the American League over his last four starts, making my AL Cy Young prediction for him look very solid. CHARLIE MORTON (DK: $9500, FD: $8800) Uncle Chuck is sometimes good, sometimes shit.  Literally every other start he flips back and forth it seems, which is understandable for someone his age (christ, he is younger than me?).  But what we know about an old dog like Morton is that he’ll just throw those breaking pitches over and over and over again – tonight he gets a team who is not great with the breaking pitch and unless they have suddenly found Jobu on […]

This is quite the mess of a slate configuration today and I am fairly disappointed in the way that both sites configured things.  They went with the three slate approach as there is a 1PM (Early), 4PM (Afternoon/Turbo) and then 7PM (Main) slate configuration.  At first I was going to combine everything into one singular article, but then I dove more into that Early slate & I really like it a lot.  So this will cover everything before the 7PM games. OTHER ‘Early’ GAMES 12:10 pm Mariners (Kirby) at Rays (Pepiot):  On FanDuel, they included the 12PM Mariners vs Rays game on their early slate, which if you feel the players internal clocks are not adjusted means a 9am game for the Mariners, who aren’t hitting well, aren’t fielding well, they just aren’t doing anything well right now but I would have to expect George Kirby has a solid game.  He can give them 7 IP with 1 K per inning and barely get that 6.5 over on the strikeout prop.  He’s a good play on FanDuel and I would take the under 7.5 on a Wednesday at COSTCO.  Which definitely feels like a spot my Mother would have taken me too 30-35 years ago around this time of year.  Holy crap, COSTCO is old too. 4:10 pm Nationals (DJ Herz) at Padres (Dylan Cease):  Welcome to a nice quiet under.  I don’t see Cease struggling here and DJ Herz has shown some promise, which is likely to stunt the Padres bats early. 4:10 pm Athletics (Estes) at Angels (TBD / Roansy Contreras):  Welcome to an explosive over…  Not sure what the Angels will do with their pitching in this one but I like Oakland’s bats either way because the options cannot be good.   WEATHER Storms lingering in and around these parts, but I expect all to play. Pirates at Reds Phillies at Tigers   So, who exactly, do we like on this early slate because the options are fairly slim?  You don’t think we’re all going to use a chalky Singer against the Marlins?  C’mon, lock and load fellas. Nate Eovaldi worries me slightly with the Brewers HR pop, so he slides down below Turnbull who returns to Detroit.  To be honest, they are 2a and 2b today and you could even combine them if you wanted to fade Singer — but this is a VERY good spot for Singer.  […]

Broken down by pricing tiers, Mark Farris outlines his favorite PGA DFS plays on DraftKings

WEATHER A few spots could see delays in game tonight but only one could see a full on delay/PPD and that’s Dodgers at White Sox.  Oh, that’s because of the rain, not because Chris Flexen is going to get murdered by the way.  No sense in stopping the game in the south side for a murder or anything.   You would think that a near full Tuesday MAIN slate (12 games) would produce us with tons of high end pitching options, but while there are some ‘names’ out there, nobody is above $9800 on DraftKings tonight and barely above 10k on FanDuel.  It’s really one of those B-level spots. MACKENZIE GORE (DK: $8800, FD: $9500) Gore makes his return to PETCO park, now as the Nationals ‘Ace’ and I firmly believe he is going to come out aggressive against his former team who really should have never traded him away — for nothing. TYLER ANDERSON (DK: $8200, FD: $9100) If Anderson can be close to his last start then maybe we’ll not sweat this one out too much.  The Athletics are hitting sub .200 against lefties over the last week and really for the season they aren’t much higher.  Brent Rooker and Tyler Nevin (not homering again) are the power bats the first time through who could hit him hard, but the strikeouts are going to be higher than normal for Anderson.  I like the under first five here as Mitch Spence ($6600) should pitch well too HUNTER BROWN (DK: $8000, FD: $9200) Brown is pitching lights out and of note he is really thriving on shutting down bad lineups.  There’s three guys who I think are going to hit well in Houston in Ezequiel TOvar, Ryan McMahon and Nolan Jones.  If you want a contrarian/leverage stack that trio is a potential high upside play — but there’s likely a 6 to 7 strikeout performance coming from Brown tonight as well.  He is third on my list as I want to fade him, but the other options just aren’t that great.     ASTROS Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yainer Diaz, Mauricio Dubon, Joey Loperfido This could be one of those throwback Houston stacks where you regret not having the bottom of the order guys each hitting a HR as well.  We’re not in Coors, but it might feel like that for Gomber against the RHH. DODGERS Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, […]

WEATHER Warm and humid, but all games play.   Not much on the expensive end tonight as Houck and Ragans are the top guys and I like both, but Ragans has a ton of heat to deal with and might serve up some power, while Houck has limited K% upside but looks pretty safe vs Toronto.  A couple likely chalk guys are Peralta and Canning, neither of whom I trust at all. My guys are Michael Lorenzen and Justin Steele.  I love both going on the road against lineups that have cooled down. JUSTIN STEELE (DK: $8500, FD: $9500) .. Steele is finally pitching well with two really good starts in a row & should benefit from the large park. MICHAEL LORENZEN (DK: $7300, FD: $8500)   Both the Braves and Red Sox are facing the “I get killed by LHH” club guys in Lance Lynn and Chris Bassitt.  Plucking some guys like Olson, Kelenic, Duran, Devers is a good move today as one offs. PIRATES Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, KeBryan Hayes Hide the women, protect the children, grab the guns and protect the Rum.  It’s Pirates and Reds squaring off in the dead heat of the summer with both teams failing to live up to some morons expectations that they would compete for the NL Central crown this year.  Sounds like an optimal time for a few brawls and some healthy divisional competition.  The Reds lineup is too disoriented, they play bad fundamental baseball and run themselves out of big innings lately.  Pittsburgh, while not a ton better, does have a core 1-2-3 that could go bop, bang and zoom tonight — or something like that. ROYALS Pasquantino, Witt, Melendez This would be so typical Royals to be dead offensively and then suddenly wake up out of nowhere.  Apologies for coming off as a homer, but it’s about 100 degrees in Kauffman Stadium and they hit better here.  The newer regime is also better at scouting guys they haven’t seen before, so I trust them against Munoz. SLEEPER TEAMS Athletics:  Do not be shocked when Angels/Athletics winds up with a high scoring outcome. Rangers:  Really like Texas going into an NL park here, they get away from home and might be ready to turn things around offensively finally. OTHER NOTES Blue Jays:   Recent trips to Fenway were fantastic for Toronto.  Back when you had Teoscar and Bichette in the […]

WEATHER Possible Delays The Cleveland/Pittsburgh region is going to see some storms rolling through, but I would anticipate both games wind up playing.  Pittsburgh is of more interest to us because Paul Skenes is pitching, so I wouldn’t be shocked if they just delayed and delayed and delayed before starting this one up.   Wind Impact CWS @ DET:  Heavy winds out out to left center field. ATL @ NYY:  Winds out to LF TOR @ CLE:  Winds out to RF   The headline today is that Max Scherzer will be making his 2024 debut and will be doing it against the ice cold Royals, who I guess decided to flip me the middle finger and have just said to hell with hitting in Texas this season.  He is not free, he is not expensive, he is not great, he is not bad.  He is just there today. LOGAN WEBB (DK: $9500, FD: $9900) We could call this the Sunday Sleeper, because I doubt Webb is going to garner much ownership.  It’s one of the outdoor/hot games, and that’s a viable issue but his change up has been better of late and the Giants will lean on their real Ace to avoid the sweep. PAUL SKENES (DK: $10k, FD: $10.4k) I personally have downgraded Skenes on the simple fact that the weather could become an issue and that’s even if they delay and he just sits around twiddling his thumbs all day long.  Even with the downgrade though, he is still in the top 3 overall simply because Tampa Bay’s too damn swing happy to not expect him to push 7-8 strikeouts. AARON CIVALE (DK: $6800, FD: $7800) Similar rain concerns here as Skenes, but equal upside as the Pirates just do not have big game ability overall.  In the cheap range, Civale is the best SP2 option. MAX FRIED (DK: $9500, FD: $10.1k) No Stanton does help limit the risk on Fried, but also kills a possible early strikeout.  Fried’s outing today is entirely based on how he pitches Soto early, if Soto gets on, Judge will double him home.  If Fried beats Soto, then Judge will likely get pitched around.  I have confidence in my guy Fried to win.   CINCINNATI REDS (& RED SOX) Friedl, De La Cruz, Steer I didn’t mention this game in the wind above because who really cares, it’s a small park and […]

WEATHER Hot, but as you would expect on a Saturday afternoon in late June.   LOGAN GILBERT (DK:  $9200, FD: $10.6k) I really only like one guy today and that’s Logan Gilbert.  The rest are all just ranking out of likelihood that they do not get blown out out in the first three innings.  Much like I say Max Fried should not be sub 10k, Logan Gilbert vs the Marlins should not be sub 11k. ANALYZING SP2 OPTIONS Here’s my bold call on this slate.  Outside of Burnes, Blanco and Wheeler all getting 12-15 DK FPTS at higher end prices, there is not a single pitcher who gets you above 10 DK FPTS today elsewhere. I’ll go ahead and give quick reasons for/against the rest of the options, but the build method today is Gilbert then hitters and then click what is left. Zack Wheeler:  Arizona has hit him well and park will play great in mid afternoon game today.  He has the highest K% upside though but Joc/Walker/Ketel/Carroll are a lot of bats to get through. Nick Pivetta:   Cincy isn’t striking out at all. Zack Eflin:  Thought about it.  Nah. Bailey Ober/JP Sears:  Thank me when this game is 7-5 in the 3rd inning.   SP2 Longshots:  Tommy Henry or Ben Lively   I literally love the over in every game besides the Mariners/Marlins (so yeah, stack that one). RED SOX Devers, Duran, Yoshida, Valdez This game should have 5+ homers in it. GUARDIANS Kwan, Gimenez, Ramirez, Naylor Both sides in this game should go off. RAYS Diaz, Lowe, Paredes, Lowe, Palacios Jared Jones is showing some signs of getting figured out.  He needs to really trust a third pitch and right now that’s not happening.  Tampa loves to swing early and often, so if they’re guessing right on his 4-seamer of Slider they could Ambush him. RANGERS Semien, Seager, Garcia, Lowe Love Seager, not sure I trust the rest beyond Semien, but Love, Love, Love, Corey Seager.   CATCHER Bo Naylor Tyler Stephenson Shea Langeliers Ben Rortvedt   FIRST BASE Nathaniel Lowe Ryan Mountcastle Josh Naylor Vinnie Pasquantino   SECOND BASE Marcus Semien Andres Gimenez Enmanuel Valdez   THIRD BASE Rafael Devers Jose Ramirez Isaac Parades   SHORTSTOP Corey Seager Carlos Correa Bobby Witt Jr.   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Steven Kwan Jarren Duran Jack Suwinski TJ Friedl   OUTFIELD – Tier II MJ Melendez Adolis Garcia Masataka […]