Ugly Monday, onto pretty Tuesday. WEATHER One specific game at risk tonight between the Royals and White Sox.  Some heavy precip rolling in right around the time the White Sox get their 2nd hit of the night (7th inning), so they could be in a delay, they could PPD or they could just forfeit.   Top Recommendations LOGAN GILBERT (DK: $9500, FD: $10,200) … Sometimes you a series that makes you excited and you think you’ll be all over it, only to completely whiff on the first game.  I had the under here last night and old Steve would say hey, lets go contrarian thinking that Elly is going to rock Gilbert and Julio gets his ass in gear now for the Mariners against Hunter Greene.  But no, I am going to be logical, the smart play tonight is the pitchers in a quiet low scoring game.  Cincinnati is a strikeout target for pitchers in DFS, get on board with it — especially when they’re on the road. (Honorable Mention:  Hunter Greene @ $9000) JARED JONES (DK: $8500) … I would not hate if you wanted to just pay the extra $500 for Gilbert on FanDuel, but we have a good opportunity here on DraftKings.  I do like Jose Quintana for the Mets in the same game for $1300 cheaper but the Jones upside is massive.  Until his arm falls off, he is going to continue doing what he has done so far.  This is the next Strider and we should be treating him like he is a $10-12k pitcher in DFS. JP SEARS (DK: $6300) … I love the 2 1/2 pitchers mentioned above, so really those are your focus options tonight but if you want value I trust Sears.  The Cardinals are bad and I don’t think Whitey Herzog’s Angel really cares to visit Oakland on his first night in heaven, no shot. Other Pitching Notes Brady Singer … Only concern is rain and boy does Brady Singer HATE the rain.  This is my reason for fading. Yusei Kikuchi, I say, regression.  Not his 2024 regression (although that is coming), but more so his history vs the Yankees.  You see, he has already faced them once this year and dominated them, so that second time is going to have a couple loud bangs with it.  Do not tempt me with a good Yusei Kikuchi time, I am not […]

I wonder if anyone noticed something about yesterday’s article.  I forgot to name it “Sunday” Dongers Club.  What a whiff on my behalf with that and thus, the chairman streak has come to an end.  That just means we can start a new one on this fine Monday night, which is a bulky DFS slate. Following the 5 game Turbo slate and the early 11 AM Boston game today, we have a 9 game MAIN slate tonight which features four games in the 7pm window, one in the 8pm window and then 4 in the 9:40/West Coast window. WEATHER All clear.   Top Recommendations TYLER GLASNOW (DK: $11k, FD: $11k) …The Nationals are coming, the Nationals are coming.  And that’s a good thing for Tyler Glasnow in this case.  This years version of the Nationals ARE striking out more and basically you’re dealing with CJ Abrams and maybe Joey Gallo hits a solo HR, that’s it, that’s the list.  $11,000 is not too high of a price to pay for a very low risk Glasnow start.  The challenge though is that given the hitting spots tonight, I think you can pivot off Glasnow to pair two others on DraftKings, that doesn’t make him not the #1 play though. LUIS GIL (DK: $7400) … Really need some value out there tonight and there’s not a TON on the Blue Jays lineup which should scare us off this spot.  Better to find a mid range SP2 than finding cheap bats today. SETH LUGO (DK: $8400, FD: $9600) … Nothing about Lugo is exciting, but we get him against the White Sox once again & once again I would expect 6 innings and limited damage done against him. GEORGE KIRBY (DK: $8900, FD: $8600) … The opposite of Lugo is Kirby with high strikeout potential but also quite a bit of risk as he has not pitched well so far in 2024 and the Reds come in with plenty of power in their lineup.  The advantage Kirby has besides being at home is I expect the Reds to be undisciplined and aggressive against his Slider and Sinker which will allow him to get a 6+ strikeout performance and his best start since his first of the year when he posted a 32 on DraftKings against Boston (very similar to the Reds) Other Pitching Notes Value option Ross Stripling comes into play against the […]

Good Sunday Morning to all of you.  The weather is warming up.  The Chairman is on fire.  We should have a great Sunday slate today and we have Site Synchronicity! WEATHER Much warmer today, and while it’s not 90+ degrees out, it does feel much better when you see mid to upper 70’s instead of mid to upper 50’s in the month of April.  If it were October, then maybe I would be going the other way around. The following games are all very nice weather and with very favorable winds blowing OUT. MIL/BAL, PIT/PHI, KC/NYM, NYY/CLE, MIN/DET, TEX/HOU All games play.   A couple remember me spots today.  Corbin Burnes against the Brewers and Blake Snell in Tampa against the Rays.  Overall the slate just screams runs, runs and more runs everywhere today, so it’s not one where I am leaping to just blindly spend up for pitching, but on the other hand having someone who can rack up the strikeouts is always a nice floor. Since Snell only has the 1 start (3 innings, 72 pitches) under his belt this year and I believe he’ll have some weird nerves in Tampa, I would fade him at his price.  You’re really limiting hte upside there IMO. Somehow the Brewers are on fire offensively.  I don’t know how, but they are.  Everything here is telling me don’t do it, don’t go Burnes.  So, guess what…  I’m gonna listen to my inner self today.  No Burnes. Top Recommendations BRAYAN BELLO (DK: $7500, FD: $8000) … This is one spot which is still in that early season weather mode.  It’s also a spot with very few red flags in the opposing lineup (Trout & Ward) for Bello to navigate through.  I like the match-up, love the price, and can live with him serving up one solo HR so long as he can get through 6 innings today. BAILEY OBER (DK: $6600, FD: $8900) … The entire fantasy community fell in love with Bailey Ober in the off-season and he rewarded them with 8 ER allowed in 1 1/3 IP against the Royals in his season debut — which yes, was on a Sunday.  But the Royals have been doing that to a lot of guys this season, and this Tigers lineup is not the Royals.  They have 5 batters in the projected lineup who favor Ober for strikeouts, they have 5 projected RHH […]

Overview Texas Motor Speedway is the sight for Sunday in the NASCAR Cup Series as we go back to a 1.5-mile intermediate track. As we head into the second quarter of the season, we are starting to see some drivers sort themselves out ahead of the rest as far as points standings go. The intermediate […]

A great Friday night is followed up with a HEAVY afternoon slate today.  11 games on DraftKings from 1PM-4PM start times and the FanDuel folks have given us two slates, a 1PM and a 4PM but they haven’t yet posted that 7PM slate, so no assurances that it loads on the Dashboard. DOUBLE HEADERS Yankees & Guardians are playing two today.  Neither is on a normal DFS slate. Twins & Tigers are also playing two today.  Game 1 (Ryan vs Maeda) is on the Main Slate. WEATHER Tons and tons of wind.  I hate wind.  It’s the worst thing mother nature can give us.  It’s basically her saying fuck your golf ball, I am going to send it over there and screw your putting ability I am … oh wait, sorry, going on a golf rant watching so much wind at the Masters yesterday. MIN @ DET:  The wind does give us one of my favorite weather narratives.  Wind 14+ MPH to Left Center in Comerica Park = Overs, and that’s what we have here.  Unfortunately it’s a very early afternoon Saturday start, but Kenta Maeda against his former Twins team?  Fuck yes, lets go. KC @ NYM:  Cross winds, heavy, yucky. COL @ TOR:  Expect roof closed. TEX @ HOU:  Big attention on the roof here.  It’s 80+ and 13 MPH winds out to left which in the dome might not seem like much but it can be if they have that roof open. MIL @ BAL:  Heavy winds here out to RF PIT @ PHI:  Just like Baltimore WSH @ OAK:  Rain in Oakland, game should play LAA @ BOS:  16+ MPH winds out to RF. ATL @ MIA:  Heeeey, no wind impacts here. SF @ TB:  Hot Dogs, Free Samples and all the bulk toilet paper you could want.   Top Recommendations MACKENZIE GORE (DK: $8800, FD: $8000) … My kid returns out to the west coast and is responsible for taming the … white hot Oakland athletics?  They’re winning games because Dogs win in April, but they are not winning games because of an elite offense or anything like that.  This is a perfect match-up for Gore as Oakland should produce a ton of whiffs on his curveball.  Look for a 7+ strikeout performance. CHRIS SALE (DK: $9400, FD: $9700) … I am not a Braves fan, but I am a Sale fan and even I […]

A good sized Friday twelve game slate tonight. WEATHER I expect all games to play, with a possible delay in Cleveland but a clear window afterwards to get the game in assuming the daytime weather doesn’t make it unplayable — but that’s a well built stadium, so they should be ok.   You do not go from being very bad to bouncing back with an elite start and that is the key thing to monitor here tonight with Kevin Gausman (vs COL) and Max Fried (vs MIA) who are good pitchers that have struggled out of the gate, but now find themselves in great match-ups.  I’ll be avoiding both and in the case of Fried, we do not use him until late April/early May every year and that is ringing true again this season.  In the case of Gausman, there’s definitely some concerns with the shoulder, so while Colorado is a bad lineup, I would avoid going here because I just cannot see him having a 12 strikeout type performance. Top Recommendations So all those notes aside, here are my top 3 guys tonight. TANNER HOUCK (DK: $8400, FD: $9500)  & REID DETMERS (DK: $8300, FD: $9400) … These guys faced off last Saturday night in Anaheim and now they go at it again in Fenway Park.  It will be in the upper 50’s and Boston is likely without Rafael Devers for possibly the entire series.  Detmers (who is good at home) dominated the Red Sox bats last week and is only $8300 here.  He’s definitely worth consideration, but I would not overlook Houck — who was equally very good in that same game.  This is almost a spot to double stack them and hope for similar performances, because both opposing lineups look very managable. ANDREW ABBOTT (DK: $8200, FD: $8400) In the same range as a lot of other SP’s tonight, but Abbott is facing the f’n White Sox and while he hasn’t jumped out of the gates this year like Detmers/Houck, I just cannot ignore that he is playing … the f’n White Sox. Other Pitching Notes Tyler Wells is the next guy on my list for $7700 on DraftKings.  Just hard to push him above the three guys above. Michael Wacha has zero upside, even facing the Mets in Citi Field.  He won’t suck, but…. Blah. Paul Blackburn is not capable of having 3 good starts in a […]

WEATHER Milwaukee at Cincinnati – I hope they play this one but it’s not looking great.  I really like both pitchers and the under here. NY Mets at Atlanta – Like the game above, it looks bad and it’s a divisional game, so high PPD risk.     With tonight trimming down to possibly a five game slate our options become quickly limited.  The Astros are starting prospect Spencer Arrighetti and yes, he is Italian.  But an Italian named Spencer just does not feel very right.  Considering the Royals have a true Italian named Vinnie you can expect Spencer to get the Tommy DeVito treatment here my friends. Dylan Cease and Kutter Crawford are both likely winning pitchers tonight and both grade out very well.  If you are a cash/SE type guy who just wants to take the high probability options those are your routes tonight but both are facing offenses which have great upside. Marcus Stroman had a great first start in Yankee Stadium as a Yankee.  He gets rocked tonight. Seth Lugo has no upside what-so-ever and nothing is less exciting than Kyle Hendricks. This all leads me to what? Well, just go Cease and Crawford and call it a day, or move onto my weather risk SP game stack below. Weather Pending … Hunter Greene / Wade Miley – SP Game stack … After two high scoring games in Cincinnati I expect these two to have great games today, making this a nice game stack option for very low ownership as well.  Greene could be popular, but nobody will have Wade Miley and his solid 5 innings of shutout ball.   KC Royals … Pasquantino, Melendez, Velasquez, Witt:  They will be seeing an Italian named Spencer making his debut.  Load up on the Italian narratives here for Vinnie Pasquantino to finally get a HR. Red Sox … Devers, O’Neill, Yoshida:  Love the BoSox against Cole Irvin, they should put up a 6 or 8 spot tonight. Marlins … Jazz, Burger, Sanchez   CATCHER Connor Wong Adley Rutschman Tyler Stephenson   FIRST BASE Vinnie Pasquantino Triston Casas Ryan Mountcastle   SECOND BASE Gleyber Torres Jeff McNeil Ozzie Albies   THIRD BASE Rafael Devers Jake Burger Maikel Garcia   SHORTSTOP Corey Seager Francisco Lindor Jackson Holliday … Min price on DK, not on FanDuel.  We don’t really need the salary relief here though but the kid is gonna be just fine. […]

A full slate of games today being broken down in the six (6) game Early/Afternoon slate (this article) and then the 7 game main slate later tonight.  FanDuel doing what they do best with only 2 games on the ‘Very Early’ slate and then another short afternoon slate.  So this is DK only. WEATHER PHI @ STL:  The rain gets worse as the day moves along here & they could try to rush this one in, but I really have no desire for anything in this game.   LOGAN GILBERT (DK: 10,000) This is a nice bounce back spot for Logan Gilbert who gave up the most HR he has allowed in his career last weekend in Milwaukee (3).  You could point to the last time he did that was against Toronto last year, but I would also point you back to his solid Swinging Strike outputs the first two starts and expect similar results here today. JORDAN HICKS (DK: $8200) Hicks is looking very good in a Giants uniform and I’ll bite what likely is going to be a popular play.  As long as he is healthy and throwing strikes the kid is going to be just fine.  I say kid, the guy is now 27 years old, so he has to have a break out now or he is done and so far so good. AUSTIN GOMBER (DK: 5300) No Diamondbacks for me today.  Dont expect more than a 13-14 point DK outing though.   DODGERS … Freeman   Only downside here is obviously the difficulty to build them as a CORE on a short slate due to pricing, but holy smokes this is a 13 run Dodger spot if I ever saw one.  Freddie Freeman might just fuck around and go 5-5 with a HR and two doubles today. MARINERS … Rodriguez Someone please inform Yusei Kikuchi that we are comin.  We are comin for his ass. RAYS … Good weather and an early afternoon start here in Anaheim which will benefit the scoring even more.   CATCHER Mitch Garver Tom Murphy   FIRST BASE Freddie Freeman Yandy Diaz   SECOND BASE Brandon Lowe Thairo Estrada Jorge Polanco   THIRD BASE Max Muncy Matt Chapman   SHORTSTOP Mookie Betts CJ Abrams   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Teoscar Hernandez Harold Ramirez Jorge Soler Randy Arozarena   Freddie Freeman – 1B – Dodgers – Chairman of the Sharp Dressed Men Club   […]

Broken down by pricing tiers, Mark Farris outlines his favorite PGA DFS plays on DraftKings

Eleven (11) games today, following the two early, and two turbo pairings.  A great balance on this full Tuesday post the CBB National Championship game.  While the Masters takes off this week and NBA/NHL playoffs begin, it’s truly MLB season now that we had a Julio Teheran appearance and today, that same team who used Julio is going to roll out Adrian Houser.  Shit… They won too! We continue to see pitchers dropping with elbow injuries and my “something doesn’t smell right” senses are going off.  Specifically today Nick Pivetta and Josiah Gray are going on the IL which means Gray himself is scratched tonight – so congrats to the Giants on the ass whooping they will give Joan Adon instead.  I’ll reserve my rant on these elbow injuries for now, but again, I’m not necessarily buying that what we are hearing is what is actually happening. WEATHER No PPD risks   TYLER GLASNOW (DK: $10.1k, FD: $10k) … Elite match-up as long as his arm does not fall off.  Hey-ooo.  Pay it and move on IMO. NATE EOVALDI (DK: $8800, FD: $9500) … This definitely feels like a pay up pitching slate and I suspect that someone like Nate Eovaldi for 8800 on DK is going to be a chalky play.  Yeah, he has a projected 40% strikeout rate here and a K prop of 7.5 with a SO prediction of 9.2.   Really hard to ignore those kind of numbers.  My model is something I use as a guide and a way to quickly analyze the slate.  Eovaldi being the 10th ranked SP is concerning to me, but I really don’t see any reason to avoid that strikeout upside.  If the Athletics go off, we chalk this one up to my brain with lots of coffee (when I do the coding) being smarter than my brain without lots of coffee (me doing this article right now). ZACK WHEELER (DK: $9600, FD: $10.6k) … A big park for Wheeler and a cold Cardinals lineup.  He won’t have the strikeouts Nate and Tyler will have, but he might go longer into the game (7 innings) and should win. KYLE HARRISON (DK: $7600, FD: $7900) … If dumpster diving for value tonight you will be thin in your selections.  This is more of a FanDuel play to go cheaper but I wouldn’t expect more than 5 2/3 IP from Harrison, which reduces […]