We made it to May!  Finally the weather is going to start warming up, right?  Right???  Sigh.  Not yet, but close my friends, close. In a shocking twist we have another Sunday slate where DraftKings has said no thank you on the Rangers home game and FanDuel has opted to put a waiver claim in adding it over on their slate.  Neither site, thankfully, has included the Reds and Rockies game in Coors Field today. As always, just the one main article for Sundays with thoughts on the afternoon slate posted in Discord if I find it relevant and then we go into the Showdown Tilt Tilt slate which should be a very good game tonight in Citi Field. [spacer height=”20px”] WEATHER About that weather, here are the spots today which are worth monitoring for rain.  I expect that these games will try to get played. Padres at Pirates This has the higher rain % chance which could impact the pitching options today.  Basically if they give it a go from the start they will play through it as much as they can with some later afternoon storms getting stronger.  If they start in a delay, we will fade pitching and sadly one of the hitters here. Red Sox at Orioles This will play, but a stray shower or two might drop in to say hi. ROOFS I expect closed in Toronto, Milwaukee and Ugly in Tampa.  Miami is TBD. [spacer height=”20px”] SANDY ALCANTARA Happy South Beach day everyone!  We get the team who has the longest trip out of everyone to South Beach going up against one of the best SP in the NL right now as Sandy Alcantara is going to remind everyone that he is the Marlins Ace and not Pablo Lopez (but we like Pablo too) and Sandy will lower his ERA from whatever it is (1.78, damn) because he won’t give up a run this Sunday afternoon vs the Mariners. CORBIN BURNES With offense down there is an argument which might be said about why bother paying up for pitching and it’s just dead wrong.  First off, we aren’t paying that much for our SP2 in most cases and second off with offense being limited it has only further made the top end guys that much more reliable and dominant. Case in point is Corbin Burnes, who has been shot out of a cannon to […]

Overview Three drivers led the bulk of yesterday’s XFINITY Series race from Dover, 55 or more to be exact and that sort of trend is what I would expect for today’s Cup Series race. The Cup drivers will turn 400 laps for a total of 400 miles, therefore dominator points will be a factor when […]

WEATHER No issues tonight. [spacer height=”20px”] That loud humming sound you hear is me snoring as I write up the pitching tonight, it is a three headed monster and then absolutely NOBODY I want any part of. CLAYTON KERSHAW Kershaw has gone back to ‘normal’ after his near perfect game vs the Twins.  Tonight he should be show some flashes of what he did on that cold afternoon vs another AL Central team tonight and one who has 6+ hitters that are extremely bad against Sliders, a pitch Kershaw is using very well right now. NATHAN EOVALDI Eovaldi is stout vs RHB, which is the heavy bulk of the Orioles lineup and he is usually a challenge for Big Cedric Mullins at the top of the order.  Eovaldi went 7 innings on just 72 pitches in his last start and comes in with no restrictions tonight. GERRIT COLE Cole will be my personal fade tonight because I am 100% on the two guys above, but he is viable to play as the third of the big three.  I just don’t see the other two faltering and will ride them 100%. [spacer height=”20px”] Boston Red Sox Raffy Devers, Trevor Story, Alex Verdugo The Red Sox have strong “we are going to drop 10 runs tonight” vibes coming out of this match-up against Spenser Watkins.  He’s not been up in the bigs for very long obviously and this year through 13Innings has been a little more lucky with a big jump in Ground Ball rate to 52%.  But the underlying stuff is weak and RH hitters have hit him extremely hard.  Even with Mt. Baltimore in left field I like Boston’s lineup a ton. Texas Rangers Calhoun, Semien, Seager If Texas does not get to Bryce Elder out of the gates then they will go quietly into the night.  The Braves pen is very good so we want to focus on the top of the order. Cincinnati Reds Naquin, Garcia, Votto The Reds will hit Chad Kuhl tonight.  Some of them know him well and I see no reason to mess around with SP tonight so we want some cheap bats in good spots.  That would be the Reds. [spacer height=”20px”] CATCHER Aramis Garcia Mitch Garver Will Smith FIRST BASE Freddie Freeman Joey Votto Anthony Rizzo SECOND BASE Trevor Story Marcus Semien Nick Madrigal THIRD BASE Rafael Devers Austin Riley SHORTSTOP Corey […]

Congrats to JetersGirl on the win in the April contest.  We will be doing the next one in late May, so tell your friends to get their asses over here to DailyAmbush to be a part of a great community. [spacer height=”20px”] As usual on Saturday, FanDuel has chopped up their slates to mirror that of a little league schedule at your local ballparks and so we’re just going to completely ignore them for these Early games.  There are six total games which cover this afternoon/early slate and they include DBags vs Cardinals Astrovs vs Jays Angels vs White Sox Nats vs Giants Guardians of the Galaxy vs Athletics Twins vs Rays WEATHER The Angels vs White Sox game should have showers moving in after first pitch but it’s not as cold as it has been of late in Chicago and so I think they will play through the conditions.  We’re not using a pitcher in this game either way so I am not overly concerned here. The D’Backs and the Cardinals game has strong winds out to left field with a good Dew Point as well. [spacer height=”20px”] SHANE BIEBER Today’s installment of “Why is this guy so cheap on DraftKings” puts us on Shane Bieber against Oakland.  Last year the Athletics had the biggest boost in actual production from night games to day games at home of any team in the league.  But this years team is obviously not the same lineup & Bieber should carve them up for 8-10 strikeouts. LOGAN WEBB The umpire last night went and pissed off Juan Soto and now he looks like he might be awake, but after that we have very little concern for Webb outside of facing the Nationals a second time in one week.  This time he is at home however and even though Soto or Cruz could connect for a solo HR I don’t see a 3-run bomb or too many crooked number possibilities for the Nationals. JOSE BERRIOS There is no easy third option to recommend today, but the one player I would take a longshot on is Jose Berrios, we are approaching the time of year where he usually settles in and has a great feel for his Curveball and the average Exit Velo on all the Astros he has faced is fairly reasonable.  I can definitely see Berrios winding up ahead of Webb or Bieber […]

Overview On tap for the NASCAR XFINITY Series this week is the “Monster Mile” of Dover Motor Speedway. Dover is a one-mile concrete track with 24 degrees of banking in each turn. It’s one of the only tracks (along with Bristol) that is concrete all the way around. The XFINITY Series has been racing here […]

Tonight is contest 2 of 2 for the April Dongers Club Appreciation Tournament, and the link for entry is listed below.  Winner(s) will be announced in tomorrow’s article. https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/126285160 [spacer height=”20px”] Friday, April 29th I am going to be making a slight tweak to the article format, likely starting tomorrow.  It’s a very minor tweak and honestly you might not even notice it too much but it’s going to be intended to help with putting you on the right path nightly for hitting while the balls remain dead around the league. Some believe that all of the sudden the warm weather over the next 10 weeks is going to flip the switch, but a dead ball is a dead ball and I think there’s definitely a process change in how you start a lineup most nights for those of us who are not just clicking Stack Team 1 + Stack Team 2 into 100+ lineups and letting it run like the slot machine DFS players thinking they are smart. So, hopefully you enjoy the tweak – which I did decide to throw in today. [spacer height=”20px”] WEATHER 13 game Main slates tonight as two games start just before the 7:05 lock.  Of the games which are on the main slate all should play with only the Yankees-Royals having some potential delays but that is the Apple+ TV game tonight and I am certain they will get it in. [spacer height=”20px”] After a very long string of pretty clear cut pitching slates tonight’s gets a little bit off the rails.  The Orioles have called up one of their young pitching prospects in Kyle Bradish, who profiles to be a pretty good RHP down the line for them but I must stick to our never a rookie SP rule and despite him being $4,000 and a temptation to use, there’s really zero reason to need that. “Oh, we have a Coors slate, I gotta use him to pay up for bats” … said the worst analysis ever.  No, everyone in Coors not only sucks at Baseball but is practically free, so you do not need a guy who has a 3 inning ceiling. ADAM WAINWRIGHT You should not have any concerns about Waino’s last start in Cincinnati – a place where he has always struggled and did last Sunday afternoon.  Back in his pitcher friendly stadium at home Waino is getting a […]

The first round of the playoffs are coming to an end with the Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves battling it out tonight to see who makes it to the next round. The Grizzlies have a 3-2 lead going into tonight and play in Minnesota. The Grizzlies will take this series tonight.   [spacer height=”20px”] (Note: […]

The MLB has decided to have all their games in the afternoon today, likely avoiding the big NFL Draft event tonight and that is just fine with me because Thursday’s should be about day games. Unfortunately, we do not have Site Synchronicity as DraftKings is the one who left off the Boston-Toronto game. [spacer height=”20px”] WEATHER It is absolutely miserable.  Not rain or terrible winds but it’s just cold and it really just adds to the damper on the lack of offense right now. But all games play. [spacer height=”20px”] ZACK WHEELER There are a good number of pitching options today and none of them stands out to me more than Wheeler.  Do you remember this past Sunday when Gerrit Cole had his best start of the season off his worst start of the season (yes, I know its been a short season thus far). Well, that is what we have here.  Wheeler on a Thursday afternoon home game vs a get-away spot for Colorado and cool temps, wind blowing in and a potential 10 strikeout spot.  Next question. FREDDY PERALTA Yo.  So like, what are we doing here?  This is a great slate in terms of the number of games, but with the dead ball and the Pirates as the opponent we shouldn’t be left with a scenario that induces an 80% owned SP1 on DraftKings.  Heck, Peralta should be 40%+ on FanDuel as well. He is just dirt cheap and I get that this season he hasn’t had that massive game yet but he also hasn’t been pitching terrible either outside of the Cardinals getting to him early in his second start.  A 90 pitch day from Peralta with the Pirates on tap should result in 7+ strikeouts. TREVOR ROGERS Based on the price and the upside of the two guys above I see no reason to really use a third option but I am a man of routine and I want to go on record for our third best option today. Look for another low scoring affair between the Marlins & Nats in another bad weather spot (theme) with dead balls and quiet offenses. [spacer height=”20px”] Who else might pitch well today?  Honestly, everyone pitches well these days, but lets highlight a couple… Michael Kopech Patrick Corbin – This isn’t a name you expected to see here today, but this will be a good start for Corbin, […]

There has been a lot made recently about a report from The Athletic which went into some detail on the new Humidors around Baseball and also the admission that Baseball has been tinkering with different Baseballs.   The long and short of that is that it just confirms what we already knew on both fronts. First that there is a new dead ball which they sometimes used previously and are using more this year and second that they turned up the humidor settings too much in the new ballparks.  All this equates to the ball traveling less farther because of a drag the seams have on the ball and thus less homers. Should this help line drive and ground ball hitters more than fly ball hitters?  Possibly, but I wouldn’t over think that too much just yet.  What is debatable is if this changes in the summer months as they hope it will and if we see a spike then in home runs. Mets SP Chris Bassitt came out with last night, saying basically that pitchers are tired of having a new ball every inning and the grip being unpredictable.  I am 100% with him on this and I think we need to keep our eyes and ears out for what is going on because Baseball has a history of just quietly swapping out certain balls with other ones to shift the focus away from what ever it is they are doing. But there is more.  The pitchers these days are the ones who dominate the analytics, not hitters.  Pitchers are far more aware of not only their strengths and weaknesses but more importantly the hitters strengths and weaknesses.  Pitchers are becoming far more robots — especially the bullpen guys — as they utilize the analytics and the ability for coaches to call the pitches with the PitchCom much quicker is allowing them to execute a specific approach on each hitter. The batters will need to adjust, that is the bottom line.  We could see the league claim supply chain issues and swap the balls out again and we for sure will have teams who are changing around their own humidor settings, but what is going to change the game and offense the most at this point is going to be the hitters adjusting to the pitchers approach and being happy with opposite field singles and walks over aiming for home […]

Mexico Open My apologies for the last couple of weeks folks.  My life schedule has been hectic and I didn’t see a need to write up a team event. Back to the grind!  Do you remember when you were walking through the Mall – when they were a thing – and you found a directory […]