WEATHER Atlanta @ Arizona:  For some reason the roof is CLOSED in Arizona.  It’s only 110+ degrees.  Wimps!   CHRIS SALE (DK: $10,500, FD: $11,500) We don’t HAVE To lock in Sale tonight, but what else are you gonna do when he has 10 more points than any other pitcher?  Not a 30 spot, but definitely a 20 coming tonight. ANDREW ABBOTT (DK: $8200, FD: $9500) Get used to me typing up a pitcher and then listing hitters below.  I really like Brendan Rodgers tonight, he’s got great metrics here, is cheap and should hit with some men on base tonight.  But Abbott can and should benefit by the Rockies 40% strikeout rate vs LHP of late and he has been great at facing lefties himself which negates Blackmon/McMahon/Jones, three of the better Rockie power bats. KEIDER MONTERO (DK: $4000) For some reason DraftKings has someone who has made three starts lately priced as just $4,000.  Most of the time we say why the hell take a floor pitcher, but this is an ugly slate for pitching upside and you can just basically punt him at $4k to take the safety of Sale getting a 22.  The math is this.  Sale 22, Montero 5, total 27 for 14k.  Or some combination like Jon Gray and Andrew Abbott for 15k and they combined get you a 13 and a 11, 24 points.  Sure, Montero gives up a homer to J-Ram or gives up 4 ER, he also gets through 4 IP and strikes out 3.  He’s free.  It’s worth taking the shot. OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS Jon Gray:  Gray is more of a FanDuel pick here, where you are punting off Sale and hoping for a better Gray game than what he has done through June/July.  Gray’s been terrible with getting strikeouts, he is basically a long time shell of his former self.  I see no reason to really go here.   TOP TEAMS TWINS:  Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Brooks Lee The three individual bats I like the most here are in the mid-range, so it’s good were on the road and won’t lose a 9th inning AB.  I expect a big series from Buxton, he is locked in right now and as long as he can avoid getting hurt he could have a huge week. SECOND TIER TEAMS BRAVES:  Austin Riley, Sean Murphy REDS:  Elly De La Cruz, Jonathan India, Jeimer […]

WEATHER Phillies at Braves:  Storms that could come in late in the game, so nothing really to worry about here.   There is enough mid range and value hitting today that you can pay up for the comfortable/secure pitching, but we also have a group of SP2 candidates who could get on a large enough roll to deliver value.  Let’s dive in. THE HEADLINERS TARIK SKUBAL (DK: $10,500, FD: $10,700) Lets just go ahead and call Skubal the Grim Reaper today because after the horrific late loss by Cincinnati on Saturday and the impending sweep at the hands of the Tigers today I gotta think someone with some testicles in the Reds front office is going to go ahead and finally pull the plug on David Bell after it feels like he has been there forever without any significant results. The Reds went into Yankee Stadium and somehow swept the Yankees making everyone think they were about to get hot.  Sorry, they are not.  Elly flips to his bad side in the RvL match-up, Tyler Stephenson hasn’t hit since May and Jeimer Candelario burned out before the legend ever did.  They suck.  Ignore Skubal’s recent mediocrity no the road. NATE EOVALDI (DK: $9000, FD: $9700) We know that when Nate is on and feeling good he is viable to have a very high strikeout upside.  The CSW% has been average the last few starts but his command of the zone is really good of late and when I’ve seen this from Eovaldi in the past he generally continues it for a while.  He’s healthy, the Rays swing a ton and he should throw 7+ IP again today. My Sunday Sleeper Spencer Arrighetti … If this moron comes out and throws fastballs/cutters to the Twins then just ship him back to Single-A ball.  He has a great curveball and should utilize it effectively on the Twins lefties to tame a hot offense.  This is my Gut call of the day. OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS Zack Littell: This is the best cheaper SP2/safe route.  Weather won’t be an impact with the roof closed, he is sub 7k & has just two guys that are concerns (Adolis/Seager).  He can be good.  He shouldn’t be negative. Kyle Gibson: The Cardinals desperately need some length out of a starter.  They had three straight extra inning games and then Lance Lynn got lit up obviously yesterday.  This also falls […]

Most likely just this one article for the 4PM afternoon/MAIN slate today.  I doubt I’ll be able to get a 7PM article/lineup in tonight, so look at the end of this article for some quick thoughts on those games. For the early 1PM games, here’s what stands out to me I stand with my system plays and Yankees afternoon games on Saturdays after the Friday night games are unders.  The Devers vs Cole HR is definitely in play though and this game may not even start/play due to storms and rain – or if it does, they should have a delay mid game. Hunter Brown vs Joe Ryan is elite pitching upside.  Bregman has multi-hit game though. Angels/Cubs over. WEATHER Slight chance of late storms between Cardinals and Nationals, otherwise all clear.   You can really break the group of pitching down into three tiers today.  The first tier is a group of four guys $8500 and above, each of whom are getting favorable xWOBA match-ups by hand split and three of them have favorable strikeout potential today.  Those three are Garrett Crochet, Hunter Greene and Taj Bradley.  Let’s just go ahead and get the obvious one out of the way.  That would be a NO on Hunter Greene today my friends. Next we evaluate if we’re trusting Taj Bradley to keep rolling along like he has been and I see no reason why he wont but I do like the SP on the other side — Andrew Heaney. Garrett Crochet vs the Marlins in South Beach on a Saturday Afternoon.  Is anyone actually going to this game?  He might be 80% owned considering we saw Cole Ragans as almost 50% owned in Coors last night, granted this is a little more pricey on Crochet, but he’s a 30 spot waiting to drop. The fourth guy I didn’t mention is MacKenzie Gore — my guy.  Late storms & a Goldy homer bother me with Gore today. The second tier of arms includes Yonny Chirinos (limited upside) and Cade Povich (no).  Model likes both, I prefer a cheaper guy in tier 3. Tier 3, as you can guess it, is Mr. Andrew Heaney.  Sometimes good, Sometimes Shit.  I expect the good from him today. Overall SP Rankings Garrett Crochet Andrew Heaney Taj Bradley   TOP TEAMS METS:  Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos Once the Mets have knocked Falter out of the game and […]

A completely fresh slate of series after everyone played the previous three days is rare but awesome.  Things kick off with the Cubs hosting the Angels this afternoon in Wrigley Field the day after the 4th of July.  Even though the Angels couldn’t hit worth shit in Oakland I expect this game and this entire series to have double digit runs in it all weekend long.  Do you remember when the Twins went to Wrigley in the summer of 2019?  No, well, you probably have a much more exciting life than I do, so whatever.  I remember it.  That’s this series only slightly less because the Angels aren’t what that Twins team was. The early Turbo slate games continue as well robbing us of Paul Skenes vs the Mets and Patrick Corbin against the Cardinals. In terms of previewing the weekend series here are the top 5 that stand out to me in any specific order: Phillies at Braves:  Phillies banged up still through this series while the Braves … Eh.  They’re just going through the motions right now.  It’s a big series though and both teams roll out aces on Friday night. White Sox at Marlins:  Not only is this the Jake Burger series, but they’re gonna be popping bottles since neither team.  Seriously, that’s the only relevance this series has.  Is it even on TV?  Why am I going to be watching this game? Tigers at Reds:  Not sure how Riley Greene doesn’t have a big weekend.  Cincinnati is turning things on though and could make a big statement if they can take care of business with a sweep. Diamondbacks at Padres:  Likely won’t be that relevant for DFS purposes but this is a big statement series for both teams. Brewers at Dodgers:  Hmm…  Long home stand for the Dodgers coming off back to back series losses and now the Brewers come in off a rough series in Coors.  Should be good WEATHER All clear   TYLER GLASNOW (DK: $10,800, FD: $11,200) I love, love, loooooooove when an ACE pitcher has a short outing and gets beat up.  Just 61 pitches following a 74 pitch outing and now Glasnow is back home.  Things that have been true since I have been alive include Dodgers ace pitchers throwing dominant starts at home on Friday night’s. KEVIN GAUSMAN (DK: $8300, FD: $9000) A little spark is coming from Julio Rodriguez […]

WEATHER Storm chances in two of the games – Atlanta and Kansas City – but both should be able to get off without a PPD.   There are two guys who probably take higher ownership that I would avoid tonight.  One is Charlie Morton, who we have talked about as someone who is up and down and in this case is coming off an up game.  The other is Zac Gallen and while the Dodgers aren’t 1-9 deep right now, they draw the benefit of Gallen being on the road, which isn’t a spot I have liked him much this season. Add in that I expect Coors to do Coors things and we’re trimmed down to a Rays/Royals SP game stack and Logan Webb against the Braves.  Honestly, it’s more about taking the leverage off the chalkier options since I don’t think any SP tonight goes above 20. Alec Marsh (DK: $6900, FD: $8500) Logan Webb (DK: $8300, FD: $9300) Zach Eflin (DK: $7200, FD: $8400)     BREWERS Christian Yelich Brice Turang Jake Bauers William Contreras ROCKIES Ryan McMahon Brendan Rodgers Charlie Blackmon GIANTS LaMonte Wade Jr Jorge Soler Matt Chapman     CATCHER William Contreras Elias Diaz   FIRST BASE Christian Walker – We knew Walker was in the Mt. Rushmore of owning stadiums club but this is getting ridiculous and also annoying that I haven’t been crushing millions on it. Freddie Freeman Jake Bauers   SECOND BASE Brendan Rodgers Ketel Marte   THIRD BASE Ryan McMahon Matt Chapman   SHORTSTOP Willy Adames Miguel Rojas   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Christian Yelich Teoscar Hernandez Jorge Soler Charlie Blackmon   Jorge Soler – OF – San Francisco Giants – Chairman of The Dongers Club Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Dodgers   TOP BETS Giants ML Brewers/Rockies OVER 10.5 Royals ML Dodgers ML

WEATHER DET at MIN:  Mother Nature has seen that the Tigers are letting Kenta Maeda pitch against his former team on the 4th of July and said, no, I cannot allow this level of destruction to occur.  This game has high PPD chances today. All other games play   MAX SCHERZER (DK: $8800, FD: $9200) The historical narrative on Scherzer is that he’ll give up 2 HR to lefties each time out while striking out 35% of the batters.  That’s Max of about 4-5 years ago and this new Max coming off the IL seems to be pitching with his brain like all great veteran pitchers do.  Book makers are smart here, as they have his SO prop only set to 4.5, but you can expect even without hitting a high strikeout volume Max will pitch well and navigate his 80-85 pitches effectively giving Texas 6 IP and limited damage against. NICK PIVETTA (DK: $8600, FD: $8700) Pivetta has been OFF lately and he is just falling behind way too much and has no real control. I’m willing to take a gamble here because the Marlins have been swinging early and could help him get ahead and gain comfort.  When Pivetta gets to 0-1, he almost has a 50% strikeout rate in the AB, but when he doesn’t it generally leads to him giving up hits. CHRIS BASSITT (DK: $8000, FD: $9400) Backing Canada’s team on the 4th of July when they should not have a home game just feels gross.  Knowing a white hot Yordan Alvarez is not going to get out against Chris Bassitt is equally gross.  But it’s not that warm up in Toronto (roof probably open) & the Astros just do not have the lefties to make this an uncomfortable game for Bassitt.  He can gives us 6, and he HAS to give Toronto’s depleted bullpen that and maybe more.   Other Pitching Thoughts I am strongly considering Stroman.  He seems like the type to stop the Yankees losing streak with a big performance like 7 innings, 3 hits, 1 ER, 5 strikeouts.  But my mind cannot get past some struggles or limitations against the Reds who do not strike out a ton and have two big hitters that look great here (Elly & Candelario).   GUARDIANS Jose Ramirez, Jhonkensy Noel, Josh Naylor Hot, Humid and lots of easy value to fit around the 3-headed trio […]

A full day of Baseball, so a great opportunity to just sit back and watch our National Pastime. I am throwing out three sets of articles today Turbo Slate Special (This one) Main Slate – Full Dongers Club Artcie – should be posted by 11am Fireworks Evening Slate – Should be posted by 5pm I […]

WEATHER All clear   There are two projected starters who are min priced (DK $4000) tonight in Keider Montero (Tigers) and Cristian Mena (Diamondbacks).  I actually like Mena because he is more than a one trick pony but there is no reason to use a “just a guy” making his debut vs the Dodgers. In other news, Corbin Burnes’ wife just gave birth to twins and the Orioles will turn to Dean Kremer off the IL tonight to face the Mariners. GAVIN STONE (DK: $8500, FD: $9800) Tough to really say what the ownership on Stone will be tonight.  He is pitching fantastic for the Dodgers and is coming off a CGSO of the White Sox where he threw just 103 pitches over 9 innings, so the workload wasnt so high that we avoid.  He’s been great against LHH as well so Carroll, Marte, Joc all kinda slide down on the rankings and while Christian Walker loves hitting in Dodger stadium, he can probably pitch around him to face a struggling 6-9 for Arizona. SHOTA IMANAGA (DK: $8700, FD: $9700) We know for almost a fact that Imanaga has been tipping his pitches but the start to the correction ocured in his last game vs San Francisco and can carry over against the Phillies who you would think are okay vs LHP without Harper/Schwarber, but the reality is that they’re not.  Trea Turner should stay hot, but Whit Merrifield is not the old Whit and the rest of the lineup probably is a little too optimistic vs Shota. CHRIS SALE (DK: $10.2k, FD: $11,300) It is so nice to have automatic Chris Sale back in our lives and I don’t sweat that the Giants will try to be “smart” with nothing but RHH tonight.  That means we get guys like David Villar, Nick Ahmed, Curt Casali….  Wait.  Nick Ahmed kinda worries me.  Okay, not really, I am just toying with you.  This is a 7-8 strikeout floor spot for Sale assuming he isn’t walking the top of the lineup which is where the serious trouble lies.  Heliot Ramos, Jorge Soler and Matt Chapman are all dangerous spots against Sale, but if I told you he would give up 2 solo homers and strikeout nine batters, you would say, okay, I can live with that. OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS Zack Wheeler:  Suzuki and Morel are both dead fastball hitters, which is what Wheeler […]

Broken down by pricing tiers, Mark Farris outlines his favorite PGA DFS plays on DraftKings

WEATHER Wind blowing OUT to LCF in Wrigley.  Not 20+ mph winds but enough to have an impact. Rays at Royals – This is a big time PPD risk and of course Singer is pitching, the man who hates the rain with a passion — odd considering the dude is from Florida.   Four guys make my list tonight and I would say the gap between #1 and #4 is very minimal which is why I am going with a 4th leg here instead of the usual top 3 recommendations. JOSE SORIANO (DK: $7500, FD: $8200) Just picking on Oakland with a sub 8k guy who has been good at managing his pitch count by pounding the zone & is capable of a 30% CSW% on any given day. GRAYSON RODRIGUEZ (DK: $9400, FD: $10,200) Seattle has a bad offense and likely is without a hot Mitch Garver.  I love Baltimore tonight, win, offense, and Grayson to give them 6 innings, < 2 ER and 7+ strikeouts. DYLAN CEASE (DK: $10,300, FD: $10,200) Seager avoided major injury and possibly could be alright but even if he is in the lineup I think Cease will handle him and the Rangers offense.  There are signs of life from Wyatt Langford and even Adolis Garcia — but one more sleepy night in Texas is not out of the question for a lineup that’s struggled at home all season. UPDATE:  Corey Seager officially out as I suspected.  Also, the projected rating on Cease went up from < 70 to above 90 with the final Rangers lineup posted. BRADY SINGER (DK: $8200, FD: $9100) PPD risk here but if somehow the weather changes and it looks clear to go then I really think he is a great top play at this price.  Given how Tampa swings and misses and the lefties will chase too.     YANKEES Alex Verdugo, Gleyber Torres It’s the heart of the order and I do not mean Soto/Judge, I mean the 4-5-6-7 spot of the order that will clean up for the Yankees. PHILLIES / CUBS  Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Brandon Marsh Michael Busch, Cody Bellinger ROCKIES Brenton Doyle, Ezequiel Tovar, Brendan Rodgers, Elias DIaz … Hey look, it’s not Patrick Corbin, nor is it Madison Bumgarner but it’s Dallas Keuchel ladies and gentlemen.  You know, all three of those guys at one point were good and two of them […]