THE AMBUSH, WEEK 11

This article is not only intended to help YOU the reader out with your NFL DFS enjoyment for the week, but it’s also my Bible that I will rely upon each week to do my lineups, contest selection, bets, GIFs, angry twitter rants or whatever else I need for that given weekend of NFL action.  You can expect this article to come out on Saturday’s as Friday nights are my grind time (… no, not that kind of grinding, cmon people …) to get this article done and ready for the weekend.  I’m a big CFB player so Saturday’s are reserved for watching college football (or doing actual life stuff), but I will then come back to my article on Saturday night and make sure all my lineups and entries are set before eventually going to bed for the evening.  You can expect me to not want to change a single thing on Sunday’s and I’ll likely not even want to answer any questions you have on Sunday’s.  If you want the best time to get your lineups done, it should be Saturday night’s when you are reading this article.

Here’s a recap of what this article covers

• This article will cover plays that I am using on my MAIN lineup & what that is being entered into.
• This article will cover plays that I am using on my SECOND tier lineups & what contests those are being entered into.
• This article will cover plays that I am using on my THIRD tier lineups & what contests those are being entered into.
• This article will cover my favorite weekly BETS for the weekend games.
• This article will cover who I feel is chalk and how it should be addressed.
• This article will cover all my NFL thoughts in one spot.

What are The Ambush plays?  These are my plays that I feel warrant the most attention for a given week.  It’s a mix of three types of players/teams each week.  We’ll cover the stud you gotta have no matter what.  We’ll cover the contrarian pivots.  We’ll cover my favorite games/stacks of the week.

What are The Ambush plays?  These are my plays that I feel warrant the most attention for a given week.  It’s a mix of three types of players/teams each week.  We’ll cover the stud you gotta have no matter what.  We’ll cover the contrarian pivots.  We’ll cover my favorite games/stacks of the week.

I had a few things on my mind this morning that I wanted to share with you all …

TOPIC NUMBER ONE

For those of you who are rostering Brian Hill at anywhere from 40% (GPP) to 70% (CASH) ownership today, I have a couple of questions for you.

1 – If you are rostering him because of the match-up against Carolina then why didn’t you play Tevin Coleman when he scored 36 points at 2% ownership in week 8?   Or how about Derrick Henry when he scored 23 points at 10% ownership in week 9?  Or how about Aaron Jones scoring 27 points at 10-15% ownership in week 10?   Those ownership BTW are Tournament ownership as all three were practically unowned in cash games and I’ll get to the cash and value argument as well but I know someone who had Coleman as #1 RB, Henry as #3 RB and Jones as #1 RB in those specific weeks and highlighted that in Coleman’s case three weeks ago when folks were touting the Panthers Defense that you were about to realize the Panthers rush defense on the road is not what it is at home — because at that time they were supposedly “good” according to the Data crowd. 

And now???????   Well, now the person who was attacking them is saying this isn’t the spot to attack them and I wonder why?  Because they are better defending the run at home and they also run the ball more themselves and it just creates this funnel where opposing teams end up throwing it vs them.  So yeah, the match-up argument is one thing but if you didn’t play three much better players in Coleman, Henry and Jones then why are you now playing a guy who hasn’t done much outside of college a few years ago in a mediocre conference — and doing such at insane ownership where basically he’s not winning you anything…. 

2 – If you are rostering him because he is really cheap and is going to see a really high volume of snaps due to injuries then may I offer up the most obvious DFS pivot of the season in Miles Sanders who is considerably cheaper than Hill, has just as much of the “snap” share going in his favor this week and because they’re facing such a good pass defense one has to expect Sanders to get more touches and more check downs.  If ever there was a cheap value RB play you should be locking in this week it would be Miles Sanders and not Brian Hill.   But sure, go ahead and play Hill because “he’s gonna be chalk, just eat the value chalk” in your cash games and then one Tuesday night next May when you’re watching some rookie pitcher you have never heard of for the Cubs go 1 2/3 innings, give up 5 runs and walk 7 guys you are gonna set your drink of choice down and say damn, I should have played Miles Sanders over that other random guy who’s name I cannot remember right now back in week 11.

3 – As for the cash game value argument, I don’t buy it.  He is $5900 on FD and $4,800 on DK.  You mean to tell me that’s better value than $5600 and $4100 Miles Sanders?  Not even close.  Not to mention the value argument only matters then if you are getting the correct stud in your lineup and really the correct stud decision should have nothing to do with good value.  If CMC is going to go for 35 points today, then you need CMC and can take many rando value players, not to mention just pull up a few websites models out there and you can see what 30 people will have in cash together because nobody really does analysis anymore they just go off pre-formulated projections. 

[Insert Elwood Blues ‘Green Onions Themed Rant’] 

Folks, By the time it’s 2023 we’ll all be looking at our watches and saying Alexa show me the optimal lineup this week as projected by the top 1,000 projections analysts who opened up their own .tout domain website but haven’t been doing this for many years and cannot look at a game and realize that AirYards or whatever stupid metric they have invented by then really doesn’t matter.   Then you realize that you renamed the code on your watch to not be Alexa because that’s what you nicknamed your little guy in an attempt to be more responsive to when your now ex-wife/gf spoke to you – but she left you because you ROSTERED BRIAN HILL and his 11 points and then went into a DISCORD CHAT to complain that you didn’t have enough shares of someone else….”.    But here at the Ambush we have real thought out recommendations on winning plays like the Coleman or the Henry or the Jones plays and as you look around the DFS industry today you see all the same garbage analysis out there that is going off charts and what happened last week is going to now happen this week and because there is Buzz on a player you should be using him or fading another player because it’s a bad spot.  Well I got something to say everyone else — lets take those Cheat Sheets that color code players into buckets and THROW THEM OUT — stay right here on the Ambush and stay consistent because starting now from Weeks 11 to Week 17 everyone else is going to be doing flips and kicks just to get into the Full Time Fantasy Weekly AMBUSH, we got it right here and we have the balls to say what you need to hear without worrying about sounding like every other per-programmed analyst out there.

[/End Rant]

Now that I have sufficiently shit on the Brian Hill play enough, he’s for sure gonna get two one yard rushing touchdowns and catch 7 balls. 

That’s fantastic, I’ve got plenty of other RB who are gonna put up 20+ points likely this week and the value has been and always will be at Wide Receiver.

TOPIC NUMBER TWO

Now that I got the opening sermon out of the way and that off my chest, I wanted to round out a few edges from the article below.  You’ll notice that I went pretty quiet on the Tight End department this week as I feel it’s a bad week but did include one player in the AMBUSH section.  I’m sticking by that but the Darren Waller play really feels like the best/safest spot to do well.  I like the Raiders passing game this week and Waller is going to have to be part of that so really look at him heavily if you are spending up at the position and the other one to consider going back to the well on — who wasnt mentioned — is Eric Ebron for Indianapolis.

TOPIC NUMBER THREE

I teased the fact that there will be an end of season Appreciation contest coming where you the readers get a free entry into a contest to win money, well, here’s what I have in mind….

The contest would begin in Week 13 with three weeks of qualifying rounds running Week 13, Week 14 and Week 15.  

During the qualifying rounds everyone will put one entry into a DK tournament that I create and your combined score from all three weeks will be used — so don’t miss a week obviously, but this shouldn’t be hard as the contest would be posted by Saturday morning each week.

The top 5 average scorers from the three weeks will advance to the Week 16 playoffs, but there will be a 6th wild card team as well.  Whoever has the highest single week score not included in the top 5 will earn the 6th spot — so you could do horrible in Week 13 and Week 14 and then do great in Week 15 and get in off that score alone.

Then the top three teams from Week 16 will advance to a three person Championship in Week 17 (yep, we’re gonna use Week 17 because its DFS!).

Here’s the catch!

• During Weeks 13, 14 and 15, you cannot re-use a player that you previously used.  If you do, it’s an automatic 0.  If you do it twice, it’s an automatic disqualification.
• So yeah.  If you play CMC in week 13, you cannto play him again in week 14 or week 15.
• The playoff teams however can re-use players once they make it there.

So that’s the plan — as of now — and look for it to begin Week 13 (Thanksgiving weekend) on the MAIN slate.

TOPIC NUMBER FOUR

I bumped AK41 up on my RB rankings

I am going to be announcing details on my end of season appreciation contest which will begin Thanksgiving weekend.  The details will be announced in next weeks AMBUSH article and it’s going to explain how I will do an end of season multi-week contest where you the readers compete against each other for my money.  Each week the contest link will be posted in the article and you will put your lineup in (DraftKings) and based upon the rules that I outline we’ll crown a winner at the end of the contest.  I’ve got some unique ideas on the contest this year and I think you will enjoy it.  Must be an active subscriber to participate (obviously by reading this) and you’ll want to play every week during the qualifying weeks.  Again, it will BEGIN in Week 13 with the Championship being either Week 16 or Week 17 (haven’t finalized that decision yet)

There are four games this week which have almost identical Over/Under’s in them which does help contribute to a balanced chalk week around the DFS sites.  Dallas/Detroit, New Orleans/Tampa, Atlanta/Carolina and Houston/Baltimore all between 49 and 51.5 totals.   Then Cincinnati/Oakland is right outside at 48.5 but the difference in that game is we have a heavy home favorite (Oakland) at -10.5 against the winless Bengals.  Last week with so many lopsided games on paper it really felt logical to take a 4 man stack approach as I outlined in the article and low and behold the one team I wanted to fade on doing that – Baltimore – went off against Cincinnati as if you played Lamar + Brown + Andrews + Ravens D you were not gonna be complaining about losing money in that lineup — but it also shows that you really need a lot and still have to have the right plays at other spots to take down a tournament when doing the full team stack in NFL and thus it’s why I rarely recommend it.  That said, I do have one team I strongly like this week with that model but won’t necessarily use that on a main lineup spot.

Speaking of positional depth this week, the Running Back position has kinda fallen from graces from the mid point on this season with a lack of that huge week from many guys.  But this week is shaping up with quite a few strong matchups at RB and that is the position I am most likely to use in the FLEX spot everywhere.  Here’s a few nuggets on games this week…

• DAL v DET:  The total feels very high in my mind.  
• NYJ v WAS:  Could be the worst game of the century or a 40-37 final.  Actually, the only way it’s a 40-37 final is if someone is playing this game on Madden in rookie mode.  This game wreaks of something like the Orioles and Royals playing a game in early September on a Tuesday night and your DFS tout telling you that Hunter Dozier is going to hit 2 HR only to have it be 0-0 in the 6th inning……. oh wait
• NO v TB:  I have nothing to explain this, but the Saints are now something like 9-16 in games prior to playing Tampa under Sean Payton.  There’s absolutely nothing behind it but it’s just a random stat.  For those wondering they dont have some automatic WIN after losing a bad game but I’ll go on a limb and say they don’t get held without a TD this week.
• DEN v MIN:  Doesn’t the Vikings mascot strike you as the type of person who orders a holiday themed latte at Starbucks?  He seems soft despite his look, and I would definitely peg him for stealing the Broncos mascot.
• HOU v BAL:  I have visions of Kenny Stills catching a game winning touchdown
• BUF v MIA:  ….  See below
• JAC v IND:  Is it JAC or JAX?  This team has been around for over 20 years now and I still never get it right and it’s not consistent everywhere.  Until we get clarity on that, I cannot trust them.  Also, we have Leonard Fournette off a BYE and in the second half of the season + coming off the LSU huge win from a week ago.  This is setting up for Fournette to leave in the 2nd drive of the game with a hammy injury.
• ATL v CAR:  I will bet anyone even money the Panthers do not finish 2nd in the NFC South this season.
• ARI v SF:  Upset alert.  Even though this is a divisional game the 49ers are coming off the MNF thrilling loss in OT to Seattle and have now a prime time game vs the Packers next week which can ultimately decide a BYE in the playoffs or even for the 49ers now if they stay at home in the first round or not.  This is a trap game.  Love the Cards.
• NE vs PHI:   Am I the only one who didn’t immediately think of the Super Bowl aspect here?  Who is more pissed. Brady or Wentz?  Seriously, Wentz got no credit for that SB.  
• CIN v OAK:   Bengals v Raiders.  It just sounds cool.  

JULIOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Welcome to Julio Jones week 2019.  I seem to remain the only person who has clarity to notice that the Carolina Panthers Defense isn’t a team to avoid targeting in DFS.  Overall they produce some numbers that pop for folks in terms of fantasy stats such as being near the top in sacks, interceptions and limiting a high amount of yards per play.  That’s great.  Play the Panthers D all you want anywhere while we continue to eat against them on the other side with the numbers that matter for the positional plays.  The Panthers defense has yielded point totals of 24-20-51-26-27 in their last five games and only once all season (Houston) have they given up less than 30 total fantasy points to Wide Receivers.  When the Panthers are on the road, we’ve attacked their rush defense and when they’re at home I will attack their pass defense.  

In comes Atlanta off a great game plan and performance in New Orleans the prior week where they tried to take the air out of the ball and sustain long drives and avoid an underrated Saints secondary and pass rush.  But in the process they lost Devonta Freeman and Austin Hooper.  Opportunity knocks and Julio Jones is going to respond.  He is perfectly healthy, has a fantastic history against Ron Rivera’s defenses and with all the Falcons weapons like Freeman, Hooper, Sanu, Ito Smith all gone via injury, IR or trade it’s setting up for a high volume game for Julio Jones and the Falcons passing attack. I can’t go as far to say we’ll see another 12 catch, 300 yard game from Julio like he had in 2016 (yes, those are real numbers from that game) but I also do not expect anyone on Carolina to limit him under 100 yards receiving this week and the low TD volume for Julio changes with Hooper out.

AMBUSH PLAY #1: Play Julio Jones as our top WR this week.

EARLY THANKSGIVING STUFFING

When you think Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys in November you think of one thing.  Thanksgiving day football and eating tons of food while watching all the silver and blue your stomach can (or cant) handle.  Well, we get a little appetizer as these teams will face each other in November but obviously not on Thanksgiving and who better to eat all the pre-Thanksgiving food that is out there than Ezekiel “Give Him the Damn Ball” Elliott.   Yes, he has been removed from their passing game, but the touches in the running game are still there (should get 20-25 this week) and the Lions rush defense is allowing 4.6 ypc on the season plus 7 of 9 games opposing teams have gone well over 100 yards on the ground against them.  If there’s gonna be that one big Zeke smash spot for the remainder of the season it would have to be this week for a Cowboys team who really needs to get in and control the game on the line of scrimmage and get the hell out of town with a win before they choke away the NFC East.

I would heavily focus Elliott more on FanDuel this week and going forward because of his lack of passing game involvement.  He’s also only carrying a $400 difference from Josh Jacobs there compared to $2100 difference on DraftKings.  That’s a huge factor and something you MUST understand when building your CORE lineups this week as pt/$ does come into play at the RB spot this week based upon the site you are playing on.  So for FanDuel he will be my #1 RB but on DK I do not mind Jacobs or CMC for his high price simply because CMC gets so many receptions that it easily justifies the #AlwaysCMC play.  But I have Zeke going 120 yards and a score this week and that’s just too solid for $8400 on FanDuel to pass up and I lean him over Dalvin Cook as well for upside.

AMBUSH PLAY #2:  Zeke has to eat or the Cowboys lose.

NOBODY….  CIRCLES….  THE WAGONS…..  LIKE THE BUFFALO BILLS

Hey Miami, that was nice of you to eliminate everyone else who took the Colts despite Brissett being out in Survivor last week.

Now go back to sucking for Tua who will be there when you pick around 5 in the upcoming draft next year.  We extend a nice warm welcome in South Beach this weekend to the Buffalo Bills, fresh off three straight snoozer type performances, in which they lost to Philadelphia and Cleveland with a win over the weak Redskins in between.  The only time this year that Buffalo has topped 30 points on offense was against the Dolphins back on October 20th, but with Miami having won two in a row we’ll see reduced ownership in “team vs Miami” this week because it’s Buffalo.

Fear not.  The wagons will be circled, the tables will be broken and the team who’s fans party better than anyone else (in pre game at least) will be rocking in South Beach.  This is a spot where the “TEAM” Buffalo puts up 40 points as they get contributions from their defense scoring off an easy Ryan Fitzpatrick pick 6 (or two) and Devin Singletary gets the heavy run.  He got 20 carries two weeks ago vs the Redskins in a game they won easily and he will get the high volume and a big run this week putting him well over 100 yards on the day and making him a fantastic value play. 

Lats week I gave you a few 4 man team stacks with the defense and this week it’s the Buffalo Bills four man stack of Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, John Brown and the Buffalo Bills defense.

AMBUSH PLAY #3:  CIRCLE THE WAGONS AND STACK THE BILLS.

TE STINKS THIS WEEK

Last week it felt like every single Tight End had 2 catches before half-time of the 1PM games.  This week, not so much.  The status of George Kittle will determine if we have one really good TE vs a team who is terrible against TE (despite what some guy in his parents basement with really long nappy hair and a mysql database says), but beyond that I don’t have any TE that to me are great and in smash spots.  Sure, Jared Cook against the Bucs makes sense as the Saints lack a ton of reliable pass catchers outside of Mike Thomas right now but I don’t see needing to force him in.

One guy who is tempting though is Greg Olsen in a game I like to be high scoring.  The Falcons got after Drew Brees last week feasting on an offensive line that was half in shambles and an offensive game plan that was never in sync.  This week they won’t have as much success and Olsen should get 8-10 targets as he normally does versus the Falcons and with Atlanta having the speed to defend the Carolina WR he will wind up being their second best pass option behind CMC.  When a position is weak like this, I won’t pay up too much for it and $5100 on FD is perfect.

AMBUSH PLAY #3:  Shop for that value at TE

AMBUSH THE 4PM SLATE

It’s time we throw in a little love for the small 4PM slates.  I gave you some 1PM only plays last week and that was nice and all, but lets dip into the 4PM slate for a change and talk about capitalizing on those contests as well.  On the 4PM slate this week we once again only have three games, but that’s okay as it opens up a little clarity on where we can be different at each position.

My favorite upset of the week is Cardinals covering vs the 49ers and I’m going as far to say that the Cardinals win outright by 10!  So naturally the first build has to be focused around Arizona and my key players are Kyler Murray and Larry Fitzgerald (not Kirk!) and some mix of DJ or Drake, but as I will outline further below Derek Carr and the Raiders passing attack really stands out to me.  The approach on the three game slate is to go through each game and pick out the must play if any from the game as well as being willing and able to say NO to the logical play in each spot.

So as you can see it’s heavy on the passing game in CIN-OAK and the game overall but the make or break decision in the 4PM slate to me is going to be mixing and matching Kyler Murray, DJ/Drake, Derek Carr and Josh Jacobs.  Do you go Kyler+Jacobs or Carr+DJ or stack QB+RB?   I’ll be playing two lineups at 4PM and the CORE in the two lineups will be based on the player pool below with the players in BOLD as the CORE players.

• QB – Carr, Kyler
• RB – White, Jacobs, D.Johnson/Drake
• WR – Boyd, Williams/Renfrow, Sanu, Samuel, Fitzgerald
• TE – Waller
• DEF – Patriots, Cardinals

AMBUSH BONUS PLAY #5:  4PM Only Slate winners include Cardinals, Raiders and Bengals and have a WR in the flex spot

RECAP OF THE AMBUSH PLAYS

1. Julio Jones week, 2019.
2. Ezekiel Elliott is our top RB to play.
3. All the Buffalo Bills in one lineup
4. Greg Olsen my favorite pt/$ TE
5. BONUS – 4PM Slate contrarian winners

QUARTERBACKS

Great week to not pay above 8k on FanDuel.  Josh Allen obviously always carries some rushing upside and I see this being a blow out where he produces enough to help them with the blowout, but your yardage upside play to me is Matt Ryan this week where Atlanta will be throwing a ton.  No hate on Lamar, Watson or even Brees but this isn’t the spot where I expect Brees to have a “bounce back” game as some are projecting for him.

1. Matt Ryan … Ryan was a little shaky at firs ton his ankle last week but later showed enough mobility and with Freeman/Hooper out he’s gonna have to lock in on forcing it to Julio Jones who isn’t a bad player to force the ball too.  300+ yard game for Ryan with 2+ TD.
2. Josh Allen … He has two big issues against him.  One is Devin Singletary taking the ball to the house and being one of my favorite RB on the slate and the second is his defense scoring rather than just giving him the ball after turnovers.  But it’s a week he can do whatever he wants and should get into that 18-20 point range again.
3. DeShaun Watson / Lamar Jackson … Neither will be horrible but I don’t think you have to have either and can easily pivot in any contest off them.  Ask yourself if you would rather have Lamar Jackson getting a 24 at $8800 or Matt Ryan getting a 22 at $7600?  Between the two though I lean Watson.

SNEAKY QB

Derek Carr … He’s very sneaky at QB but nobody will be talking bad about him even though he’s probably 1-3% owned.  Cincinnati is a known bad defense, but we’re forgetting that Oakland is also a known bad defense.  The Bengals should put up points and the fact that Josh Jacobs is chalk gives us Carr-Williams-Waller combination as being the smart pivot as we like to say.

RUNNING BACKS

Really really really deep position this week and it’s a matter of picking the right guy in each price range.  For me I have Zeke ahead of Dalvin and depending on which site you are own its either Zeke or CMC as #1 this week based on their price and the scoring system.  Devin Singletary will be my top B tier back and a much preferred option off Josh Jacobs who’s price is rightfully inflated this week against the Bengals at home.   Last week I pointed out that Derrick Henry just missed the cut and this week that is Marlon Mack with the Colts in a must win spot at home against Jacksonville.  With TY Hilton still out the Colts better get their running game going against a Jags defense who is good but can be run on.  Mack has to score for the Colts to win and will be overlooked.

My sleeper RB this week?  It’s the return of David Johnson who looks like he is good to go this week and should catch a ton of balls and get a ton of run vs the 49ers in what I have as an upset spot with the Cardinals covering against San Francisco.  His $5100 price on DK is a great late day hammer spot for the FLEX position and I have him beating out Tevin Coleman in the same game at about 20% less ownership.

MY PRIMARY RB TO TARGET

1. Zeke Elliott … Outlined him heavily in the Ambush Section
   
2. Devin Singletary … Loooove his price.  He’s a must to help get Zeke + Julio into lineups.

THE STUDS, who are EQUAL with the TOP TWO THIS WEEK

1. Dalvin Cook … He’s Mr. I’m gonna get 100+ combined yards.  TD’s determine if he is a must own and I’ll take the risk on not having a ton of him compared to Zeke in that category this week.  Also doubt he is heavily involved in the passing game this week so that makes him equal with Zeke.
   
2. Christian McCaffrey … He’s Mr. I’m gonna get 150+ combined yards, catch a ton of balls and continue to be the MVP of my team…  I’m not that worried about his lingering foot injury.
   
3. Alvin Kamara … Play him on DK where he should have a good day due to catching a ton of passes out of the backfield.  Saints will lean on their backs a lot this week.   I have boosted AK41 up a ton in my personal rankings.  Saints are going to go through their backs in this game and thus I have boosted him into this tier from the contrarian tier.  He’ll be 5% owned.

CONTRARIAN BUCKET

1. Marlon Mack … The contrarian third RB this week who should get into the box
2. Miles Sanders … So Philly has nobody, literally, nobody healthy this week.  No Sproles, likely no Howard and they just signed Jay Ajayi????  Alshon Jeffery is worthless now and I’m pretty sure that Vinnie from section 407 row F is gonna come down to the field and walk into the huddle and Carson is gonna look at him and be like … What the hell is this?  Who are you?  Where’s Howard?  And Vinnie will be like well, we had a problem, you know, he’s gone … you know.  He’s what?  What do you mean you had a problem?  Well, you know.  He’s … he’s gonna ya know?  What do you mean?  Well, you see there wasnt nothin we could do about it, so uh yeah, im here. and all, that’s that.
   
3. Latavius Murray … Whole world will jump on Brees and the Saints passing game and Tampa has a stout rushing defense.  Doesn’t matter, Saints will ground and pound Murray this week because they have too balance the game out.  It’s gonna be run right, run right, run right every time they run the ball.  He’s getting 10+ carries and 50 yards + TD would make him a nice value play.
4. James White .. Lots of catches for White to target on DK

GUYS IM NOT THAT HEAVY ON:   Len Fournette, Josh Jacobs, Tevin Coleman and Brian Bleeping Hill (See below)

WIDE RECEIVERS

How bad were my WR triplets last week?  Or the week before?  Or … okay, shut up.  At least I am here to admit that its been a little too long since we had TD+TD+TD from all three. It’s happened before and this week I like that plus big yardage and volume games from my triplets this week.  There are four ‘elite’ level fantasy WR on this slate in Mike Thomas, Mike Evans, Julio Jones, Nuk Hopkins.  Of those four I am clearly going with Julio as my number one, but the second can be hard to predict this week and I wouldn’t hate any of the three — but my lean is Nuk Hopkins.

MY TRIPLETS THIS WEEK

1. Julio Jones … My leader of the studs.  
2. Tyler Boyd … I don’t see many scenarios where Boyd walks out of this game un-injured without 7 receptions for 85 yards.  Check his price on FanDuel.  That’s right.  $5900.  AGAINST OAKLAND.
3. John Brown … I keep bouncing back and forth between him and Nuk in the triplets section but went with Brown for his value.

OTHER FAVORITES

1. Mike Thomas … Duh
2. Nuk Hopkins … Duh
3. Mike Evans … I am anticipating that the Saints will keep Eli Apple or Patrick Robinson (should play) on Godwin and this week and roll PJ Williams and or Chauncey Gardner-Johnson over to Mike Evans with safety help.  Evans will get his 6 for 80.
4. Mo Sanu … Should be a game where there’s a lot of check downs with Mr. Brady but Mo Sanu has quickly become a good fantasy play when the Pats face a bad pass D.
5. Tyrell Williams
6. Jamison Crowder … Sure, some ‘revenge’ narrative if you wanna go there.  Or just, facing a bad pass D narrative too.

SNEAKY VALUE WR

1. Hunter Renfrow … I mentioned loving the Carr play for Oakland and Williams/Waller being the logical plays – but Renfroe has really become very consistent with 88-54-42 yard receiving games in his last three and two touchdowns.  The double dong for Renfroe is coming.  Oh wait, wrong Renfrow.  Yeah, just kidding aside.  It’s the Bengals pass D.  Are you really scared?  Love, Love, Love Renfrow.
2. Taysom Hill … Likely used more as a TE this week but should be used in some gimmick run game formation as well.  He’ll get some touches and remains a longshot dart at $5200 on FD. 

TIGHT ENDS

I mentioned that TE is weak and if George Kittle does play you should like him vs Arizona.  But I’d rather not spend a ton at this position this week.

1. Greg Olsen
2. Darren Waller
3. TJ Hockenson
4. ADD:  Eric Ebron

DEFENSES

This season really has re-iterated that paying up for defense isn’t always a bad idea.  Buffalo is that team this week even though they’re on the road.  We’re getting that Ryan Fitztragic game this weekend and Buffalo D is really really really above the rest of the field.

1. Buffalo Bills
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Baltimore Ravens … We know this about Watson.  He takes a ton of sacks.  The Ravens D will give up points to Watson but should get plenty of sacks this week as well.

A new section that I am bringing to my article each week.  This is my sneaky way of providing thoughts on lots of the games without actually “touting” or recommending specific plays each week.  It’s for those of you who love to ask questions on Twitter, Slack or whatever other method you prefer.

Okay, what’s the game you aren’t heavy on that scares you?

There are two this week.  The Saints-Bucs is the obvious one that will be popular which I am not on.  It’s a game where neither team allows much rushing yardage and with the Saints not having Lattimore we have pass defenses that will be fighting on both sides of the ball to try and get off the field.  Tampa’s WR depth will be a challenge for New Orleans and the Tampa secondary just flat out stinks.  But it’s not a game I am rushing towards.  The other one is Cowboys-Lions.  I just don’t see it here.  It’s Zeke and goodnight.   So between the two the Tampa/New Orleans is definitely the one that has the better potential but I don’t see any one Saint skill player dominating and it’s just a ‘floor’ type game for everyone on both sides of the ball.

Pick three upsets, three locks and three WTF

Three upsets:   Cardinals over the 49ers outright, Broncos cover vs Vikings, Bucs cover vs Saints.

Three locks:   Bills over Dolphins, Texans/Ravens is a great football game to watch, Jets/Redskins is NOT a great football game to watch

Three WTF:  Leonard Fournette gets hurt, Mohammed Sanu leads everyone in the NE-PHI game with 1 passing TD, Arizona wins by 10

No Brian Hill?

Please explain this to me.  This guy hasn’t been on anyone’s radar in any format, not best ball, not seasonal, not survivor leagues, not even a glimmer of consideration has been given to Brian fucking Hill in anyones cheat sheet that they co-host with FantasyCruncher while sucking your money into that garbage website which is basically a con for show us your lineups so that we can scoop them for ourselves in our own multi-accounting.  No, he’s been completely WORTHLESS in fantasy this year.  Until now?  Now that Freeman and Ito Smith and Austin Hooper are all GONE and suddenly Brian Bleeping Hill is the guy that is going to save your team and carry you to the promise land?  The Falcons CANNOT run the football.  There is a reason why Matt Ryan throws for 350 every week and Devonta Freeman was shit for value all season long.  Their O-Line is trash and they basically got by with ONE good rushing drive last week and then just went a cloud of dust all week (yes, there is Dust in New Orleans, it’s Space Dust and well, the streets aren’t exactly clean down there either) and now he is going to be a MUST START IN DFS?

WHAT?  DID YOU PEOPLE NOT SUBSCRIBE TO ME FOR MY CHRIS OWINGS RANT IN BASEBALL THIS YEAR?   For fucks sake, Brian Hill hadn’t carried the ball that much since he was in high school and hardly did it then either and now one week later you think he gets the same volume against a Panthers D who stinks on the road yes but at home defends the run well.  Luke Keuchley at home is like the Houston Astros at home, it’s like he has someone banging on a garbage can to tell him run left, run right and he’s all over the place and you wanna go with BRIAN FRICKEN HILL?  GET THE HELL OUT OF MY ARTICLE WITH THAT SHIT.

And before you say “oh, his price is the reason”, let me give you the hard stance on guys who beat him out this week

On FanDuel, where he is $5900 — Royce Freeman, Latavius Murray, Miles Sanders, Pete from Wisconsin

On DraftKings, where he is $4800 — Royce Freeman, Carlos Hyde, Gio Bernard, Miles Sanders, Dora the Explorer

Reminder on a couple things you should be looking for each week are as follows

• Tournaments with less than 1k users in them
• Tournaments with less than 300 users in them
• Tournaments that pay 10x to first not 50x to first
• Higher paylines (% of people who get paid)
• How much does 10th place get?  20th place?

Focus on not first place but below that.  Make sure you are playing a tournament that is one you can win in and will not have a ton of tilt by entering a lineup and having to worry about every single person who scores on the slate.  You’ll find that in the long run any tournament that only pays 10x to first is one you will profit in.