And just like that … we’re back to playing NFL DFS. I have been making some significant improvements to the Dashboard, unveiling a ‘Command Center’ view for NFL that I ultimately want to use for other sports too. By week 2, 3 or 4 I would think you are going to see some major new tools on it as well but ultimately the Dashboard is still behind it and the ultimate goal is to get projections and my own ratings down to the most accurate as possible for those of us who generally are playing no more than 3-5 lineups.
I come into the 2025 NFL season without much expectations across the league. I definitely believe that we are going to see significant new blood in the Super Bowl at the end of the year, but we’re not really going to assume it’s the new shiny toys from last year like the Redskins.
If you want my true Super Bowl pick – I don’t have one. But here are five predictions for the NFL season
- The Chiefs meet their match this season, going around 8-9 or so in a VERY tough division and miss the playoffs
- The Patriots are the second best team in the AFC East and almost beat out the Bills there.
- Nobody in the NFC South is good. Nobody in the NFC south is terrible.
- Quarterbacks will make a bounce back this year for the first time in a while. I’m talking 10 or 11 deep. Thus, it becomes another year of “QB doesnt matter” in NFL DFS because they all get there eventually and the gap is narrow.
- Brock Bowers breaks every TE record
The temptation to once again just ride a QB with some rushing ability is going to be the downfall of many. Without Mahomes, Allen, Lamar and Hurts it kinda thins that pool out, but there’s gonna be some hope to force in Daniels, Nix or Kyler thinking they’ll give you rushing upside. Meanwhile, expect one, if not four, “inmobile” style Quarterbacks to rush one in tomorrow as red zone is tough early in the year and things can break down. In short, don’t go hunting for that 8-hole home run today. Just take guys we trust to have volume.
THE AMBUSH PLAY
Drake Maye (DK: $5500, FD: $6600) … There is no better time than early in the year to buy into your guys. Last season it was Bo Nix for me and this season it’s Drake Maye. He fits into my QB theory of a second year Quarterback who didn’t flash big time early in his first year but was serviceable late in the year. Major upgrades around him and a game with the Raiders to kick things off should start a solid Sophomore campaign. His legs definitely will help buy time for that pretty deep ball as well & if you do not have Diggs touchdown on your bingo card, then just quit.
SECONDARY OPTIONS
- Joe Burrow (DK: $6900, FD: $8000)
- Bryce Young (DK: $5700, FD: $6800)
Is it me, or is this one of the biggest range of outcomes at RB type seasons we have seen in a long, long time. And that’s saying something given the last decade+ or the whole zero RB theory being pushed harder and harder. But we did have that 3-4 year stretch with elite top end RB that you kinda had to play almost every week. Now? Who is that guy? Or guys? Sure, there are many who could ascend into the Mt. Rushmore of RB such as Achane, Bijan, Jeanty, Irving, etc… Sure, Barkley CMC, Kamara, Taylor, Henry, etc. could continue to be at the peak. But much like Byron Buxton and Jo Adell have finally put it together in MLB, I think there’s gonna be that one sleeper RB that finally has his breakout this year. Is it Javonte Williams? Probably not. Just food for thought though.
THE AMBUSH PLAY
Jonathan Taylor (DK: $6800, FD: $8300) … Miami was actually #1 in the league last year in yards before contact against the run, but they have lost two stud veteran DL and I combine that with Indianapolis probably rolling out a game manager Daniel Jones model to start the season to formulate a Taylor 20 carry, 110 yard, TD game at home to start off the season. Sure, there’s upside guys out there and Taylor just seems like a steady “cash” type play, but on a week of uncertainty, I’ll take that sure thing volume IMO.
TOP SECONDARY OPTIONS
Kenneth Walker III (DK: $5900, FD: $6700) … I never cared that much for Zach Charbonet in college & found that in the few Best Balls I did he was ‘that guy’ that I always was forced to just click on because his ADP had him ranked in the range where I wasn’t interested in taking anyone else. In short. He sucks, this is still KW3’s spot to dominate while healthy — which might be a question mark yes, but so too is the Niners rush defense.
James Conner (DK: $6100, FD: $7500) … While I am higher on the Saints defense now than I was back in April, they’re still an easy 3.5 YPC every time you run the ball against them.
Bijan Robinson (DK: $8000, FD: $8800) … Pricey here, but he’s too talented to ignore and could be that new true RB1 across the league.
OTHERS …
- OTHERS I DONT MIND: Josh Jacobs, Jahmyr Gibbs
- SLEEPER: Cam Skattebo scores twice for the Giants in an upset.
It’s hard to break old instincts and the instinct to correlate WR against each other in the same game could not be more shoved in our face than what the NFL did with week one games. One thing that is important in all betting, DFS, analysis in life is to just trust what is put in front of you and what you see. So, I’ll take the cheese here and my core build are all focused around WR or some type of pass-catcher correlation in games but not on the same team — opposite teams. And with the first two games of the season, what have we seen? Close games.
TOP THREE
Malik Nabers (DK: $7000, FD: $7800) … You sit there and you think it’s Terry McLaurin who is going to get fed early in this game by his Quarterback as an “I got you”. Nope. Negative sir. It’s Nabers and It’s Deebo. Although by week 3 on Washington’s side you will be locking in Jaylin Lane over and over again, but we save that for another time. Nabers is the guy I want though. Lattimore’s gonna be better for Washington but not until October. Run It Back with Deebo Samuel (DK: $5200, FD: $6300)
Mike Evans (DK: $6600, FD: $7500) … Bucs/Falcons in the AnalDome to start the season and we’re not stacking it? Yeah, it’s likely a 28-23 type final game, Bijan scores, Evans definitely scores as well and if anyone is going to get the looks it has to be Evans.
Kayshon Boutte (DK: $3800, FD: $4700) … One of the reasons I like Maye is his 3 WR. Diggs the veteran is good for half the season, but Douglas and Boutte are guys who should take another step up and ascend. Boutte has had off the field issues but was one of the more talented WR to come out of LSU in a while and that is saying something. In his third year, I think he is finally maturing and ready to break out. Run it back with the best TE in the game below.
THE POOL OF WR
I hate NFL content in the sense that people are just listing guys without any actual measurable on how well they did. So outside of my ‘Top two’ each week, I think the goal here has to be either 100 yards receiving of a touchdown. No middle ground.
- Brian Thomas (DK: $6800, FD: $7700) … The problem here is picking the Panther to trust, along with trusting the Jaguars passing game to have a HUGE day. Thomas might be the guy I just end up fading, along with this game in general. Carolina’s defense is sneaky better and I assure you Travis Hunter is getting a look or two in this game folks.
- Drake London (DK: $6500, FD: $7000) … Leaning on Atlanta way too much, but here is your chalky ‘Anytime TD’ play of the day.
- Courtland Sutton (DK: $6000, FD: $6700)
- Jauan Jennings (DK: $4900, FD: $6000)
VALUE
- Zay Jones (DK: $3300, FD: $4200) / Brandin Cooks (DK: $4100, FD: $4800) … You thought I would slip through this whole article without a mention on the Saints game? Marvin Harrison is very mis-priced yes, but Zay Jones is the dagger WR who burns New Orleans & this is the best chance for Cooks to hit value with a 5+ catch game in a short yardage passing volume early.
There is no Taysom Hill for at least four weeks. Congrats to all of you.
Doesn’t matter.
I am locking in one guy and one guy only every week.
BROCK BOWERS (DK: $6500, FD: $7000)
There is one question for him each week for me. Is he on the slate? Second question. Is he under 10k? Third question? Does he have at least one working leg? Alright. Then he’s my TE.
As always, pick any defense and hope for the best. I really don’t know why we havent fixed the D/ST scoring yet.
- BRONCOS (DK: $3800, FD: $4800) … The Broncos defense is great and facing a rookie QB, yeah. $3800 in week one for a defense? Ugh…. Fine.
- TEXANS (DK: $2500, FD: $3800) … I really dont trust Stafford’s health, just hate them being on the road but this is also a good value spot
- COLTS (DK: $2800, FD: $3300) … I definitely don’t trust the Dolphins
CORE PLAYS
QB – Drake Maye
RB – Jonathan Taylor
WR – Malik Nabers
TE – Brock Bowers
FAVORITE BETS
Giants / Commanders OVER 45.5
Patriots -2.5
Seahawks ML
ANTYIME TUDDY PARLAY
Mike Evans
Jonathan Taylor
Brock Bowers
