Friday Dongers Club Appreciation Contest – Round #2 Rules:  You must stack 2 teams together, minimum of 3 players from each team (hitters). https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/128621346 I am on the road most of today so I am having the article publish early but if there are late scratches or things of that nature I likely will not be updating anything in the article — but the Dashboard should update. [spacer height=”20px”] WEATHER All clear, some thunderstorms in a few games but they all should play. [spacer height=”20px”] [spacer height=”20px”] LUCAS GIOLITO I can sit here and try to ramble about hey the Tigers have won 5 in a row and law of averages says this or that about them beating the White Sox again.  Who cares, Chicago is a dumpster my friends.  But the price overall on Giolito is just silly tonight.  This is a free square on a slate which is going to be won by pitchers in his price range. AARON CIVALE The Royals were in a tree on the road down in Houston and so I hope everyone avoids picking on them tonight back in Kauffman Stadium.  Civale gets most of his strikeouts on his curveball which should do damage against a now free swinging and over-optimistic offensive lineup. JOSE URQUIDY Much like the man below him this is a good park shift and a bad offense that he should avoid some blow-ups against.  The Astros pitch to well to make the same mistakes vs a team they know that Toronto’s pitching did all week long and so in Oakland tonight Urquidy wont blow your socks off, but he won’t fault you either.  I project a 6 inning clean game. [spacer height=”20px”] OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS … Pablo Lopez is very tempting for me tonight, but the Mets just find a way to win games and their lineup is too pesky. Both Grays are in for a long night.  I considered Sonny but thought otherwise. Charlie Morton and Zack Wheeler could go 7+ in their match-ups and both should be mediocre ownership.  The challenge is Morton is coming off great starts and the Nationals likely will hit well in Atlanta and Wheeler is facing the Cardinals twice in one week which really worries me. Same is true for Gallen and Kuhl [spacer height=”20px”] I don’t see a ton of offense today, what I see is a bunch of match-ups against […]

A big Thursday night slate means we have lots of new series which will be 4-gamers over the weekend.  The only carry over tonight is between St. Louis and Atlanta who are finishing up their series today. There are also ZERO senior citizen slate games tonight as well which is great news. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are playing TWO games today, with the second on the DraftKings Main Slate but not on FanDuel’s Main Slate.  So when the Pirates decide to defecate the purity of Baseball by bringing in a position player and he gives up 4 homers again you can watch your DraftKings chances fly out the window. Round 2 of the Dongers Club Contest is tomorrow and the article will be up by 2PM. [spacer height=”20px”] WEATHER All clear [spacer height=”20px”] Monday, proven arms who are chalk (Rodon, Manaea, Manoah) got lit up. Tuesday, pitchers who aren’t very good but are chalky (Kikuchi, Howard, Quantrill) got lit up. Wednesday, chalk pitchers of all sorts, those pitching above their pay grade (Javier, Cobb) and the Donkey Chalk which was probably recommended by RGeeWhiz, WalkDirty, WhoEliteOrWhateverTheyAreCalled, LibTardTastik (Bello) got lit up. So on Thursday …. ?? Well we have breakout players tonight with Cease, Gonsolin and Strider all being popular and all facing opponents that they could do very well with.  We also have the proven commodities in Musgrove and Cole as well as the under-performing but still good Logan Webb. I don’t look at others projections on ownership when doing analysis first but I can pretty much guess that Cease (9800) and Gonsolin (9400) are popular with Strider being the next trendy pick. We ain’t touchin Strider with a 3 foot 28 inch pole my friends. [spacer height=”20px”] DYLAN CEASE I have been a Cease mark all season and he has been to our benefit more than the negative.  Tonight vs the Tigers he should have that peak game again.  They’re a big swinging strike team vs sliders and with them winning 4 in a row I think we’ll get the overly aggressive Tigers tonight.  28 point game for Cease on DK tonight. TREVOR WILLIAMS The Mets have got Max Scherzer back and soon will have Jacob deGrom back as well, but they could still use a good start tonight from Williams.  He normally would not be someone I am too heavy on with a RH team but the ballpark […]

The Indians suck.  They are not allowed to be called the Guardians given how bad they suck.  Just my $0.02 on the early slate.   In fact, we won’t even call them the Indians.  The team who can’t outsell the Browns and Cavaliers sucks. [spacer height=”20px”] WEATHER Yankees at Pirates – Rain and tears from Yankees fans losing a second game in a row to the Pirates. [spacer height=”20px”] Ladies and Gentlemen.  Pitching tonight for YOUR Colorado Rockies.  The man, the myth, the legend, the GOAT…  JOSE URENA! [spacer height=”20px”] LUIS SEVERINO I joked above about the Yankees and their fans crying over a second straight loss to the Pirates, but it won’t be a 10-9 loss if they do as Severino.  After three down starts on getting strikeouts vs Houston twice and the Jays once we should expect him to get back to a 30%+ strikeout potential today. ALEX COBB / MERRILL KELLY I am very open to the idea of game stacking the pitchers here in a closed roof Chase Field tonight.  After both teams have been seeing lefties lately we get them back on their weaker sides. So here’s the rub.  The Giants have lost the first two games and I give them the lean to find a way to win tonight which is why Cobb is ranked ahead of Kelly but Kelly to me is the more safe option to go 6+ innings without damage while Cobb has the much higher strike-out upside.  Both are very well priced on DraftKings that we want one and frankly I don’t think it matters which so I am recommending both. [spacer height=”20px”] OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS … Aaron Nola is likely chalk in a divisional game vs the Nationals.  I have yet to see if Soto is in, but clearly if he is then he’s my Chairman and if he isn’t then I still will fade Nola as we have good pivots today. Brayan Bello is a Red Sox SP prospect who has a similar frame to Triston McKenzie and has a lot of buzz around him.  The Rays aren’t exactly the ideal first opponent and I dont think we need the extra salary relief on DK with Kelly/Cobb. Mitch White was a top recommendation last night on a bad pitching slate until he was pushed back to today and I will once again be fine with him tonight but we […]

Through all the 2% Chairmen and winning slates there has been one major element that has evaded us this year and that would be these small 4 game afternoon slates.  I think today we change that. [spacer height=”20px”] WEATHER Humid, but not that warm in Chicago however the winds are blowing 14 MPH out to right field. [spacer height=”20px”] Naturally after a dumpster fire pitching slate where it literally didn’t matter (I cashed all FanDuel lineups with my pitchers and the winner of the 100k contest had Nick Pivetta there) who you went with as long as it wasn’t Yusei Kikuchi, it would figure that today on a short 4 game slate we have a handful of pitchers who grade well. [spacer height=”20px”] SHANE BIEBER Finally we have the Bieber against Tigers game in this series and the Guardians are going to avoid being swept out of Detroit.  DCPA metrics against the Tigers lineup are .258 xWOBA, .341 xSLG and a 27% strike-out rate.  Ride the Beebs today. And for those who don’t remember, DCPA = Dongers Club Pitchtype Algo, which calculates the projected lineup and how well they should hit the specific pitchers pitch profiles. JOSE BERRIOS Speaking of avoiding sweeps, the Blue Jays are trying to avoid a sweep in Oakland and I could not love Jose Berrios more here.  Yes, day games in Oakland can tend to play up but consider this a little opposite effect as I would even think there’s justification for Berrios on FanDuel here too. [spacer height=”20px”] OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS … Joe Ryan should match-up against a lefty short lineup like Chicago but his recent struggles have me concerned he can beat out the other guys on this slate.  Plus the wind out to RF is a problem. Yes, Corbin Burnes vs Chicago is a likely chalky play.  He doesn’t quite have the K% projection upside that Bieber has and that $2400 difference between him and Berrios will feel like a waste when Berrios pitches a gem today. Lance Lynn is always less appealing when he has a lefty lineup that can hit and with the wind blowing out to left plus the Twins hitting extremely well so far this week we will fade him. [spacer height=”20px”] There isn’t one specific pitcher who is the main target above others on this slate.  Michael Pineda, Adrian Sampson and James Kaprielian are all good enough […]

GENESIS SCOTTISH OPEN I actually had a pretty good week last week.  I was leading the $44 entry Club Twirl going into Sunday and had four or five guys in the Top 10 to begin the day.  But, it’s golf, and Matthias Schwab decided to leave his game in his hotel room and I slid […]

Another fantastic DFS slate last night and we are onto a 12 game Tuesday slate which locks at 7:05 on your favorite DFS site of choice. Tonight is also round 1 of the final Dongers Club Appreciation Contest before the All-Star Break.  There will be one tournament in August as well and this series will be 4 rounds where your top 3 scores are taken for the overall leaderboards. https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/128509955 Tonight’s Rule is Outback Rules!  That means, no rules for those of you who are slow with the puns. Click the link above to join in.  $283 to first place and $100 to second place this month. [spacer height=”20px”] WEATHER Chance of Rain showers in Fenway Park between Rays and Red Sox but I do not anticipate a PPD Chance of Rain showers in Comiskey Park II between Twins and White Sox. Hot as balls in Detroit for Detroit’s standards and really warm everywhere. [spacer height=”20px”] The list of names going tonight definitely leaves a lot to desire, so I am once again deciding to just go off the reservation and trust my gut on who is going to win, not get destroyed and can calmly go into our lineups despite maybe not having the best name on the board.  So lets dig into our inner Oracle for another contrarian SP or three on a slate where there is no game with a total below 8.5 LUIS H GARCIA I don’t care how much my brain says that the Royals hit well in Texas/Houston, they are not winning a game in this series.  This is another low K spot but the Astros pitchers are always solid at home.  Kansas City should struggle offensively so long as Garcia doesn’t walk them. NICK PIVETTA While most of the country is dealing with lots of heat and humidity, Fenway Park in Boston tonight has a lower Dew Point and the threat of bad weather which can push this game along.  Yes, the wind is blowing out towards the monster but 5-9 hitters for Tampa are all high strikeout upside for Pivetta and if he starts off with his Knuckle-Curve working in the first inning I can see Pivetta going 5+ with 8+ strikeouts tonight. ANDRE PALLANTE Pallante is nothing special, he’s the kid in the movie about high school kids who nobody pays attention too until it’s some weird moment where they need […]

Today’s MAIN slate for 4th of July is a 6PM slate.  Yes, this is a horrible job by Rob Manfred as there are a couple teams who aren’t even playing today.  Like, the Cardinals and Phillies couldn’t play one more game tonight at 6PM before a fireworks show?  Lame. Both FanDuel and DraftKings have 7 game slates.  Oh, nice, you say.  No, they’re not synchronized.  FanDuel has included the Giants and Diamondbacks.  DraftKings has said screw that game and included the second game of the Guardians vs Tigers double-header. So this means Shane Bieber and Alex Faedo are in play on DraftKings, while on FanDuel you have Carlos Rodon and Madison Bumgarner. [spacer height=”20px”] WEATHER All clear and hot as hell in Cincinnati. [spacer height=”20px”] There really isn’t much in the way of cheap pitching that could produce well today.  Yesterday we saw just about every pitcher come out and have a really strong strikeout performance but today it’s more about riding the aces in most spots where they are facing bad offenses. ALEK MANOAH Very hard to lock in an 11k Manoah on FanDuel but he has very little risk against Oakland.  This is a lineup that has a couple lefties but not the kind which I see giving him fits in this huge ballpark.  Lock him in on DraftKings. CHRIS FLEXEN There are two big series in MLB which I have an odd narrative around.  The Yanks/Red Sox and Dodgers/Padres.  When those teams have a series I bet against them in their immediate game afterwards and that’s what we have with the Padres who managed to steal one vs the Dodgers yesterday and now return home, but still not hitting the ball very well.  Jake Cronenworth is the only hitter who I think would take him deep. SEAN MANAEA Had an update on who was starting G2 for the Guardians, so we bump up Manaea in the same game with Flexen.  He should get through 6-7 strong without much damage but I don’t think he gets any run support.  Take the under and consider this a nice Mana-Mana slate. [spacer height=”20px”] OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS … Kyle Freeland is worthy of a dart on DraftKings.  Riding my theory on the LAD/SD both losing tonight he would be the other arm to benefit from that. On FanDuel I could see Bumgarner winding up with 25+ points but he won’t have […]

I am certainly not the person to try and convince you not to be wagering your American Dollars on this fine Holiday of ours today and I certainly am not going to pass up an early 3 game slate with dueling openers and Game 1 of a Guardians/Tigers double-header, no sir-re Bob! The Three games that we are figuring out include: Rangers (Dunning) at Orioles (Kremer) Guardians (Plesac) at Tigers (G.Hill, no relation to Grant – trust me on this one) Rays (Beeks/Bullpen) at Red Sox (Austin Davis) [spacer height=”20px”] WEATHER All clear. [spacer height=”20px”] Zach Plesac (CLE) This is the only pitcher I will be trusting on FanDuel and just eat his chalk there as well as on DraftKings.  You could argue that there is leverage with a mediocre pitcher being so heavily owned but you have almost NO pivots who will do anything else, so besides stacking Tigers (ew) what do you gain?  Nothing. Drean Kremer (BAL) The Orioles pitchers do well at home and despite the Rangers being in a good park shift for Seager, Calhoun, Lowe and Smith they will still offer up enough strikeouts (3-4) that keeps Kremer in contention as an SP2.  I like Baltimore a good amount today so ride him over Dunning. [spacer height=”20px”] BALTIMORE ORIOLES Dane Dunning has been hit hard when he is on the road away from the graveyard in Texas.  The Orioles are very good at home and Cedric Mullins is long overdue for a nice big game which he should have in his friendly Camden Yards. BOSTON RED SOX I wrote about Boston yesterday going off today and they have a long history of being a great ballclub when it comes to Holiday games.  Back at home look for Devers to finally get things going again. CLEVELAND GUARDIANS We don’t have a ton of information on Garrett Hill who hasn’t pitched in the big leagues but his minors numbers check out relatively okay.  That said, the Guardians are a pesky team and we could have signs of life from Franmil Reyes which is encouraging as he could jack one out off the Tigers Bullpen today. [spacer height=”20px”] CATCHER Adley Rutschmann [spacer height=”20px”] FIRST BASE There is very little to consider here at first base.  Nathaniel Lowe is not a terrible pick for the Rangers but I love me some Mountcastle today. Ryan Mountcastle [spacer height=”20px”] SECOND BASE […]

Neither FanDuel or DraftKings included the Coors Field game today, so rejoice for that news if you did not want to deal with that mess.  In fact, the game has just gone and vanished like a fart in the wind as it’s not on any classic slate today at all. The night game tonight is the Cardinals and Phillies as Nolan Arenado continues to remind the Phillies how retarded they were for not making an offer to the Rockies for him a couple years ago. This means that on the 4PM tilt slate we have MacKenzie Gore vs Clayton Kershaw and no, my pants are no longer on.  But for now, we address this MAIN slate which is likely to be a little less crazy scoring than yesterday’s. [spacer height=”20px”] WEATHER All clear. [spacer height=”20px”] This is another one of those Classic Sunday slates where I like the sleeper pitchers more than the guys who feel ‘obvious’ to you out there. BRANDON WOODRUFF There are two paths in which Woodruff fails.  The first involves Bane coming back to Pittsburgh to finish what he started at Heinz Field and the second involves Bryan Reynolds and Daniel Vogelbach hitting bombs. Otherwise this is a game he once again has 8+ strikeouts and this is coming from someone who isn’t a huge Woodruff fan overall. MY SUNDAY SLEEPERS Boy this is a doozie of a combination today my friends. TRISTON McKENZIE I know that people read my articles and will say “I didnt like that pick”, which is always weird to me because … you don’t have to like the pick before the slate begins.  Now maybe it’s my rationale or how some GIF I used in the message, but the bottom line here is that I don’t like half the guys I mention either, but I base my picks off what I see between the data and what I feel in my gut. Oh, don’t get confused, there’s absolutely ZERO data behind the McKenzie pick today.  His fastball has been torched for homers by RHH, and this is uh, the Yankees. Right.  Exactly.  Following a double-header and in the lefty park, this looks like it could be one of those McKenzie 8-9 strike out games.  The Yanks have a long history of not scoring runs when J-Montgomery pitches and so McKenzie is my sleeper SP of the day. Of course you aren’t […]

Overview After an exciting XFINITY race on Saturday, the Cup Series drivers will take to Road America, the 14-turn 4.048-mile road course. The drivers will run 62 laps, more than the XFINITY drivers but still not a worthwhile amount to consider dominators heavily. Similar to that race on Saturday, I’ll be looking for the place […]