WEATHER East coast rain all week and the bulk of the bad games are on the Turbo/Early slate today. PIT @ NYM:   This one feels like it could get PPD or find a way to play through the rain.   MAX FRIED (DK: $10,500, FD: $10,800) … Born on the west coast and going into a pitcher friendly stadium, one that for good pitchers with consistent stuff is an almost automatic 7 inning extremely quality start. DYLAN CEASE (DK: $8300, FD: $9000) Gotta be a popular pick here, and I would think he is higher owned than Fried, which makes me like Fried more.  In fact, Fried is not even a question tonight, lock him in.  So the debate here is between Cease and a secondary option (i.e. Brown below) and really it’s Cease by a mile because the gap after Fried/Cease IMO is a big one tonight. BEN BROWN (DK: $7500, FD: $8300) I’m really not in love with Brown much yet, he hasn’t really shown the ability to go deep into a game consistently and it hasn’t been because of PC limitations at all.  Overall the results have been nice and the Marlins lineup in a night Wrigley game without wind variables is enough to justify using him. OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS Kyle Freeland and Jack Leiter are both worthy of taking some shots on in a secondary lineup or two. Ruling out Senga (& Keller) because of weather. Both Brandon Pfaadt and Robbie Ray are fades for me.   ATHLETICS Butler, Langeliers While the Dodgers are going to collect all the “implied run total” touting tonight, lets not overlook the fact that the worst pitcher on the slate is pitching for the Dodgers.  Landon My Sharona Knack is going to give up 5 ER to the Athletics before leaving in the third inning. BRAVES Olson, Riley, Ozuna Welcome back Michael Soroka.  No, you are not going to shut down the Braves — don’t even think about it.  I am spending up on pitching tonight (and you should too), but these Braves bats are kinda cheap all things considered.  Weather will be stormy late, but should hold off. RAYS Lowe, Simpson, Aranda, Diaz Bad spot for Berrios IMO.  He definitely could pull out one of his magical games but the Rays balance of lefties will make that problematic tonight.  He’s coming off two good starts as well, so expect […]

We start off with split slates as FanDuel includes a couple 6PM games and DraftKings wants you locking in at 7PM tonight.  This means that Boston at Detroit and St. Louis at Philadelphia are not on the DK Main slate. WEATHER Free and clear my friends. There are three immediate pitchers who stand out today and when I opened up the model rankings they were of course listed 1-2-3.  The Tres Amigo’s today are Skenes, Mahle and King.  Three of the better strikeout pitchers in the game and in the case of Mahle and King they draw less than dangerous opponents.  None of these arms are coming off dominant starts, Mahle is the one who worries me the most, but at the end of the day I am focused on trying to side with two guys that should get us into the 20’s tonight. MICHAEL KING (DK: $9500, FD: $10.4k) … I cannot find anything bad to say, and I think this could be one of the safer under bets on the night.  Michael King at home is as good as they come. PAUL SKENES (DK: $9700, FD: $10,600) … Someone should be happy that the manager is gone.  Skenes wasn’t exactly holding back when he said “hey, someone had to be held accountable” and pitching in Citi Field is a spot that could rattle some pitchers, but not this guy.  The Mets are hopefully enough to keep his ownership down, plus he hasn’t been ELITE in three of his last four, but when he is on, you know you are getting a safe outing.  Expect one of those upper tier spots tonight. LONGSHOT / SLEEPER PICK It’s not Yusei Kikuchi, although maybe with a few drinks I could be talked into it.  It’s also not Colin “Diah” Rea at home vs the Marlins — but the Marlins either scoring 10 runs or getting no hit in Wrigley this week does seem to feel rigiht. Justin Verlander   CUBS Ian Happ, Michael Busch, Pete Crow Armstrong They say that Ian Happ will be back in tonight and leading off for $4400 is a steal.  Quantrill vs the Cubs lineup this year feels like an easy button play.  He’s coming off a really good start vs the Dodgers, so history is NOT repeating itself here.  Cubs score early and often and have lots of men on base for sure.  It’s not […]

A very happy Mothers Day and remember that Chicks dig the long ball, so maybe we get a ton of homers today?  The return of the Noon game is back as we miss out on a Sunday Citi Field over spot which is sure to hit by the 5th inning as Boyd and Canning square off early. WEATHER Brewers at Rays:  Time to get used to Tampa home games having weather concerns but will always play. I told you all MacKenzie Gore was an elite Cy Young caliber pitcher.  Yes, I said it back in like, 2019, but still, we finally made it.  He is 10k today!  And against the Cardinals who are not the worst team vs LHP, but  moving on after him we have lots of good options, including … CHRIS SALE (DK: $9600, FD: $10,400) I honestly thought Sale would drop off a little bit this season.  He’s in prime Sale auto play form right now.  Three straight 100+ pitch games with just 4 walks and 20 strikeouts over the last two.  Sure, the opponents help but the Pirates are also hitting just .172 vs LHP over the last 10 days, not exactly a shift in the wrong direction here and a good park for lefty pitchers typically. REESE OLSON (DK: $8300, FD: $9000) There is a bigger ‘name’ for the historical MLB players listed below.  Olson is better right now.  If they re-made another version of moneyball but did it about pitchers, Olson would be the guy that they are talking about when they say, “why do we like Olson”?  Because he keeps the ball in the park.  Congrats to Texas on their 10 run outburst on Saturday and congrats to Joc on his homer.  Back to reality today.  This is an OK spot to game stack pitchers, but I have a less than confident feeling on Eovaldi. THE SUNDAY SLEEPER It’s SEAN BURKE (DK: $5300) but I am not sure how much of a ‘Sleeper’ he is, nor am I really thinking that there’s too much of a difference here in using him at the cheap price or a more secure option like Olson. OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS SANDY ALCANTARA:  It’s likely he is chalk and it’s admittedly bad chalk, but I am still going to tout it and here’s why.  Sandy’s struggles this season have been very pinpointed, he has either found himself in too […]

WEATHER We should be all clear.   COLE RAGANS (DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.2k) The Royals are square in that “pitching is on fire” mode.  It’s a trend that I have noted before and although the White Sox had a lot to do with it, we can’t be disappointed backing Ragans the way his strikeout upside has been all season.  There WILL be early runs in this game though, probably via the long ball, so if you are scared, okay — but good luck finding cheaper guys tonight that you trust. KYLE GIBSON (DK: $5200) Uh.  So. Yeah.  Nolan Schanuel to hit a homer isn’t a bad tout play…. But.  Like.  Heee’s gonna pitch really well tonight.  Dare I say, this is a Saturday Night Sleeper?  No Trout of course, so, what’s the concern here?  Oh, yes, you are relying upon his first two starts of the season.  This is exactly to the path of someone of his profile.  Veteran gets a -13, then a 5, and now tonight he posts a 17.  Enjoy it. BRADY SINGER (DK: $8800, FD: $9100) Without any lefties to really speak of for Houston this could turn into a Singer gem spot. OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS Chase Field might not play like it did last night — that said, how does one really feel great about May or Burnes? Shane Smith:  This is the next best cheap arm today. Garrett Crochet:  Royals know him.  You learning yet? Logan Webb and Joe Ryan — If they were cheaper then we’re on them.  No reason to touch them IMO.   This is an ideal night to spread it out with a 3-2-2-1 type build.  If you wanted to go heavy on a team thinking they score 10+, these are the obvious two — but neither is really worth doing it. PADRES Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth I see no reason to talk anyone off the Padres once again.  It’s bad times in Coors and hopefully they put Bud Black out to pasture very soon just for the old mans mental health. METS Juan Soto, Mark Vientos, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso Brad Keller will open for the Cubs today.  Not ideal for them.  Then its a bullpen game.  Basically, they’re punting. NEXT BEST SPOTS MARINERS:  Crawford, Polanco, Raleigh.  Bowden Francis is almost a .500 SLG against LHH and when it goes bad, it goes REALLY bad. ORIOLES:  Mullins, Rustchman, […]

Alright MLB, I will give you a pass here.  Cubs arent home, Yankees arent home, Jays arent home.  This is just not your normal Saturday with NO Baseball until 4PM EST? WEATHER Milwaukee at Tampa – Slight chance of rain/storms There should be a ton of offense on the 4PM Afternoon slate, which really makes your pitching tough to decide upon.  I think the Pirates will hit AJ Smith-Shawver, he is good for 1 HR every 4 innings & Oneil Cruz will take him deep.  The Cardinals vets know Trevor Williams quite well and lets just say, they should be happy today. I think it’s worth taking a risk on the pitching in Milwaukee/Tampa, but the wind could be gusting before the storm rolls through and you’ve got a real logical scenario where there’s 5+ HR in that game and then a rain delay. My friends, we are out of options.  We are down to Carlos Rodon and JP Sears or Andre Pallante and Andrew Heaney…. Sorry Carlos Rodon JP Sears Andrew Heaney Honorable Mention:  Tobias Meyers/Taj Bradley stack   Cardinals/Nationals Brewers/Rays Pirates   CATCHER Sean Murphy Ivan Herrera   FIRST BASE Rhys Hoskins Matt Gorski   SECOND BASE Brandon Lowe Brendan Donovan   THIRD BASE Nolan Arenado Austin Riley   SHORTSTOP CJ Abrams   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Oneil Cruz Christian Yelich James Wood Chandler Simpson   Rhys Hoskins – 1B – Brewers – Chairman of The Dongers Club Oneil Cruz – OF – Pirates CJ Abrams – SS – Nationals Nolan Arenado – 3B – Cardinals   TOP BETS Pirates ML Cardinals/Nationals OVER 9 Yankees/Athletics UNDER 10 Brewers ML

A wonderful Friday, our second of five in May and I just want to remind everyone what I said last Friday about the “juiced” ball weekends in May.  It’s coming… Today we have no afternoon game in Wrigley though, which is very sad but a great main slate to work with. WEATHER Brewers at Rays:  We are into the Tampa Storms part of the season — now we’ll find out why they used to play in a COSTCO Warehouse.  This is a hitters only game though and it should find a way to finish. Cubs at Mets:  I think they play through this, but light rain chances. Giants at Twins:   Warm Dodgers at D’Backs:  Roof Open   KEVIN GAUSMAN (DK: $9000, FD: $8600) Not many better parks for Gausman to go into than the tough hitting Seattle where nobody can see the ball unless they’re a catcher it seems.  The Mariners offense at home is bottom 10 in the league, and really bottom 5 if you stop and think long about it.  With a bad start in late April in the mirror now for Gausman, we should be confident he will have his mind and his pitch arsenal on point tonight. HUNTER DOBBINS (DK: $7700, FD: $7600) Well, the Royals did what they needed to do against Baltimore and Chicago.  Now they get a pitcher they don’t know, which never is a good spot for them.  Expect this to be a 7-3 type Red Sox win tonight, although Lorenzen should pitch better for about 2 innings before Boston explodes the second time through.  For Dobbins, he’s a little heavy on the fastball which could be a problem if the command is off but really don’t think the Royals sudden “offensive” surge will pay off tonight.  Ride the theory they cannot advance scout well. OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS HUNTER BROWN … Brown’s price has been pushed all the way up to 11k and there is no reason to think he won’t do fine tonight back at home.  If you are going the Padres in Coors route though then you’ll find it tough to jam him in because you really can’t go Padres without Tatis/Machado/Merrill.  But there is some okay value elsewhere and so Brown is definitely not a bad pick (#ToutLife) Gut says Clay Holmes throws a masterpiece for the Mets….  But he has limited strikeout upside vs the good Cubs, so […]

I’ll quickly cover both slates in just this one article for today but I am more interested in the early slate.  In the four games tonight we have two with some weather concerns and the Dodgers in Chase Field with an open roof.  Fun times… WEATHER No issues   EARLY RANKINGS Kris Bubic Brayan Bello Casey Mize   MAIN RANKINGS Chris Bassitt Spencer Schwellenbach     EARLY RANKINGS I love some one offs from the Red Sox, but wouldn’t full stack against Jack Leiter Tigers Royals Twins   MAIN RANKINGS Dodgers Diamondbacks Phillies     EARLY CATCHER Salvador Perez Ryan Jeffers   FIRST BASE Vinnie Pasquantino Spencer Torkelson   SECOND BASE Gleyber Torres Jackson Holliday   THIRD BASE Rafael Devers – Favorite one off but this is a good position Maikel Garcia Royce Lewis   SHORTSTOP Corey Seager Bobby Baseball   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Trevor Larnach Mickey Moniak Brenton Doyle Kerry Carpenter   Kerry Carpenter – OF – Detroit Tigers – Chairman of The Dongers Club   TOP BETS Tigers/Rockies G1 over 10.5

WEATHER White Sox at Royals – This has some PPD (Rain) risks HUNTER GREENE (DK: $9800, FD: $10.6k) This isn’t Summer Atlanta weather & this isn’t your old Hunter Greene.  Outside of one random stop in Baltimore he’s been elite all season and deserves every bit of our focus against Atlanta. JACKSON JOBE (DK: $6700, FD: $8400) Jobe was on my A list prior to the PPD last night.  He’s on the A list still today despite being in Coors Field. OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS JOSE BERRIOS will leave with the win tonight.  He’ll pitch great too, but kinda falls in a pricing no mans land tonight. Fried and Cease just have too many trouble spots.  Fried is the more reliable one because he’s got an easy bottom of the lineup to get through   BLUE JAYS Vlad Guerrero, George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Bo Bichette Toronto as a team over the last 10 days is hitting .206 with 35% strikeouts in their last 34 PA.  Small sample size my friends.  Time to smack Kikuchi in the nuts. TWINS Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Trevor Larnarch Thou just cannot avoid picking on Baltimore.  Something has to change here Orioles and it’s your Manager. OTHER SPOTS Phillies   CATCHER Alejandro Kirk J.T. Realmuto   FIRST BASE Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Ben Rice Ryan O’Hearn   SECOND BASE Michael Massey Matt McLain   THIRD BASE Royce Lewis Manny Machado Alex Bregman (FD)   SHORTSTOP Bo Bichette Carlos COrrea Elly De La Cruz   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Trevor Larnach George Springer Aaron Judge Kyle Schwarber   Vladimir Guerrero Jr – 1B – Toronto Blue Jays – Chairman of The Dongers Club   TOP BETS Toronto ML Cincinnati ML

WEATHER No issues   Sonny Gray (DK: $8200) Kodai Senga (DK: $8800)     ATHLETICS Day game should help here even more.  Seattle’s pen has been shaky of late as well so we might get late inning bonus magic.  Top of the order. CUBS We’re officially locked in on #AlwaysCubs until they stop   CATCHER Shea Langeliers Cal Raleigh   FIRST BASE Nick Kurtz Pete Alonso   SECOND BASE Nico Hoerner Jared Triolo   THIRD BASE Nolan Arenado Isaac Paredes   SHORTSTOP Jacob Wilson Willy Adames   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Brent Rooker Lawrence Butler Lars Nootbar Heliot Ramos   Brent Rooker – OF – Athletics – Chairman of The Dongers Club   TOP BETS Mariners/Athletics OVER 9

Broken down by pricing tiers, Mark Farris outlines his favorite PGA DFS plays on DraftKings