SLATE INTRO
I did my weather analysis too early yesterday and with lots of site migrations going on it was a challenge for me to get the update in that the ATL/WAS game was likely going to get PPD. I got this update into the SLACK channel but even then it came very late for a lot of folks. The issue here remains that both FD and DK have not built into their sites the ability for a game which never starts to unlock. I understand that they have this 2016 brain lock mentality that ownership % is so important that you cannot show player ownership and then allow someone to change off that player to another spot. Normally I would agree, but in the case where the player isn’t playing at all then the point about ownership % being important is completely lost. It doesn’t matter. The player is getting a 0. Of course you want to swap off them… It’s bad customer service and design and leaves a poor taste in the users mouths while also making the competitiveness of the product far less.
WEATHER
I believe we should be all clear today.
This is a very good pitching slate and I envision there being only a couple automatic spots for offense tonight. So it’s telling me that our lineup construction today allows for some ole “DFS Game Theory” (a term I hate) tonight when it comes to blindly picking your pitchers. So follow along good friends, follow along…
Jose Berrios
He is my top and favorite arm on both sites. He has the same upside that Bieber has and the Twins are not losing this game to the Brewers. I joked last night that as Milwaukee was hitting more and more homers that we had concluded our one day for 2020 of using Brewers hitters and now we must refresh our memory that they’re terrible against RHP and all those guys who had big games last night (Braun, Avisail specifically) are going to go back to sleep tonight.
Berrios has fallen into that ‘Bauer’ category that I labeled on Trevor last season when he started to see the AL Central teams far too much. Berrios is a very talented arm but at times struggles with knowing how to pitch out of trouble and so far this season he has faced the Royals twice and two other AL Central teams (White Sox/Indians) which have made him not look so great. But the swing and miss stuff was there last game and facing a team in Milwaukee which doesn’t know him very well is a prime spot to get Berrios going.
Clayton Kershaw
Ho-hum. Another 7 inning, 3 hit, 5 strike out performance from Kershaw tonight. The Mariners have been a little pesky and you must not come into this play with blinders thinking Kershaw puts up a ridiculous score against them. But he won’t get blown up and he won’t lose tonight.
Sonny Gray
I’ll make this short and sweet. When I rank Berrios-Kershaw-Gray in terms of is most likely to strike out 10 batters, Gray is #1. When I rank them in terms of who could get into trouble and struggle to get through 5 with a win, Gray would rank #3. So that’s why I am not leading with him today, but Berrios-Gray combination on DraftKings is very ideal today.
Outside of the Box
Trevor Williams
Not only am I not looking at Bieber tonight, but I am not using the Indians bats against Williams. He’s really become a one trick pony and that one trick is that only RH bats hit him hard. The entire Cleveland lineup is full of switch hitters and the Indians haven’t exactly been the most consistent hitting team this season. In a park that isn’t favorable to RH bats (granted, Franmil can hit a ball out of Australia) we can take a gamble on Williams as a ‘darkhorse’ type SP2 on DraftKings. The thing is, I don’t know that you’ll need his price discount today though. So it’s merely a play if you are going for an expensive 5 man stack on DK.
Guys I am not on.
- Shane Bieber – Josh Bell takes him deep.
Boston Red Sox
Alex Verdugo, Rafael Devers, Mitch Moreland, Jackie Bradley Jr.
This is the game of the day and the Orioles certainly look tempting as Anthony Santander continues to make his case for AL MVP honors (Psst. He won’t get it). But it’s the Boston side which I am interested in today. Baltimore has once again struggled to pitch at home this season and while I expect them to split or win this series overall, I don’t see Asher Woj keeping the ball in the park tonight as Boston looks to maybe have a little road success in a spot where they have hit well in the past. Oh look, JD Martinez might actually care about playing tonight – but don’t necessarily just focus on the “known” Boston guys because it’s JBJ in Baltimore time.
Oakland Athletics
Marcus Semien, Roman Laureano
I don’t look at VEGAS totals when determining pitchers or hitters. Nor the odds on games. But I was shocked after I looked closer that this game has a nice 9 total. It makes sense because the inter-league games have been fairly good for offense in this weird season and Alex Young does not have enough quality pitches to sustain as a starter.
CATCHER
- Chance Sisco … As long as Baltimore has him leading off at home and he is under 4k on DraftKings he is your top play.
- Austin Barnes
FIRST BASE
- Mitch Moreland
- Josh Bell
- Austin Slater
SECOND BASE
- Chad Pinder
- Jake Cronenworth
- This position. It blows.
THIRD BASE
Great position to day.
- Justin Turner … Normally good versus fastballs, Turner has been struggling with them this year. Today he gets Kikuchi and he will kick one out of SafeCo/T-Mobile/Whatever you wanna call it.
- Raffy Devers
- Anthony Rendon
SHORTSTOP
- FTJR
- Marcus Semien
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Mike Trout
- Alex Verdugo
- Nelson Cruz
- Jackie Bradley Jr
Outfield – Tier 2
- Ramon Laureano
- J.D. Martinez
- Franmil Reyes
Outfield – Value
- Trent Grisham – Great Value on DK. Arguably the best value on the slate on DK — pending lineups….
- Jesse Winker
- Shin-Soo Choo
- Gregory Polanco
- Jackie Bradley Jr – OF – Red Sox – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Mitch Moreland – 1B – Red Sox
- Justin Turner – 3B – Dodgers
- Chance Sisco – C – Orioles
- Mike Trout – OF – Angels
- Shin-Soo Choo – OF – Rangers
- Jorge Polanco – SS – Twins
- If you roster a 2B and he homers today, take a victory lap…
- BONUS ……………. Josh Bell – 1B – Pirates
