Four games and they’re all a GO as of now, so no COVID cancelations on this Friday evening. Some really good DFS teams on this slate too as we mix around into different conferences.
THE GAMES
56: Syracuse (-18.5) at Louisville
60: Purdue (-2) at Minnesota
49: UMass at Florida Atlantic (-30.5)
55: New Mexico at Air Force (-7)
BETS: Syracuse +18.5, Purdue/Minnesota OVER, Air Force -7
STACKS OF THE DAY
Purdue at Minnesota
No word as of this morning yet on Rondale Moore, but I assume he is going to continue to just not play despite opting back in. It’s almost as if he opted back in just to get some training work in but is refusing to play and risk his draft stock with injury. If he plays, you roster him because he is Rondale fucking Moore. If he sits, David Bell remains the high priced target in this offense to consider and on a short slate he can pay off his hefty $8,500 tag against a terrible Minnesota defense.
The juice in this game is Tanner Morgan bouncing back for the Gophers. At $5,800 he has to be considered in a full Gopher stack. Purdue’s defense isn’t that much better either and so he should have a good game here along with the Gopher studs
Purdue: Zander Horvath, David Bell
Minnesota: Tanner Morgan, Mohamed Ibrahim, Rashod Bateman
Syracuse Orange vs Louisville Cardinals
Javian Hawkins decided to opt out right before their game last Saturday and Tutu Atwell was a late scratch. They’re really banged up but welcoming in a bad Syracuse defense can fix things and it’s kind of funny that Hawkins opts out BEFORE the Syracuse game where he probably would have had 200 yards rushing. We have value at RB in Hassan Hall or Mo Burkley with Hawkins out if you want to try and trust one of them in a likely split carry situation. The most likely leading rusher for them today will be Quarterback Malik Cunningham.
The real value though is at WR. If Tutu Atwell sits then Dez Fitzpatrick becomes a fantastic play at WR and I would expect Malik Cunningham to attempt to run the ball a ton again so the main path for me is Cunningham and Fitzpatrick although taking one of the RB makes sense too.
Neither defense is very good, so this game should produce solid results.
Syracuse: Taj Harris
Louisville: Tarik Cunningham, Dez Fitzpatrick
MY POSITIONAL RANKINGS
QUARTERBACKS
Malik Cunningham (Louisville)
A dual threat option who will see more rushing attempts with his stud RB Javian Hawkins opting out.
Tanner Morgan (Minnesota)
Good value play who I think has a little get right spot. Minnesota struggled against a good Iowa team last week but should have a better path against Purdue this week.
Haaziq Daniels (Air Force)
Dual threat who gets an easier passing match-up than normal. New Mexico was not dominant vs the run last year despite coming out this season and doing well against it. The option is tough to defend all game and thus I think Daniels has to be our primary QB on this slate.
RUNNING BACKS
Zander Horvath (Purdue)
Horvath is a workhorse back getting almost 5 YPC against a defense that is swiss cheese. Without Rondale Moore he remains one of their more consistent options in terms of volume.
Malcolm Davidson / James Charles (Florida Atlantic)
If you want to pay for Javian Posey at $10.2k tonight on DK go right ahead. Some may view this as a smash spot for the rushing QB but to me the value as in this backfield if you can hit it right.
FAU has three RB who have carried the ball between 29 and 40 times this season along with frequent carries by their QB as well. It’s a mess but Malcolm Davidson ($7,700) is the clear best RB here with James Charles ($4,700) being right behind him in terms of production. UMass isn’t exactly coming in with much history of stopping the run having given up over 7 yards per carry and 6 touchdowns through two games thus far. It wouldn’t shock me to see lineups tonight that have two of the FAU running backs.
Mohamed Ibrahim (Minnesota)
He won’t get shutout of the end zone against Purdue, but is very expensive and the FAU running back situation looks too good to ignore. But Ibrahim is arguably the best overall player on this slate so expect him to be 50%+ owned tonight.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Rashod Bateman (Minnesota)
Tonight’s marquee game has high priced RB and high priced #1 WR in it. You should be looking to play two players from this game and thus the configuration puzzle of which one from which side is obviously difficult but Bateman’s target share makes him the logical choice from the Gophers side.
Tutu Atwell (Louisville) – Questionable
If Atwell sits then lock in Dez Fitzpatrick who immediately becomes the Louisville #1 WR against a bad Syracuse defense.
Taj Harris (Syracuse)
He’s an elite WR in my mind and gets so much targets that we gotta consider him a top tier play. Call me a sucker for Syracuse WR, but whoever is the #1 in this offense gets all the volume and Taj’s vertical threat against Louisville should hit on 20% of his targets because the other 80% might not even come close to being catchable. But you’ll enjoy that one 70 yard bomb for sure tonight.
Chris Autumn-Bell (Minnesota)
Minnesota desperately needs someone opposite of Bateman to step up and Autumn-Bell remains the primary #2 option as he’s the only other guy who is seeing any volume of targets. Freshman Mike Brown-Stephens did see a random 2 targets last week and is a min price $3,000. There’s no indication that he’ll step up but I can see Minnesota at some point trying to find out if they have something else. It’s do or die time for Chris Autumn-Bell because the only thing worse than being a shitty hyphen receiver like JJ Arcega-Whiteside is being replaced by another shitty hypen receiver who has two first names.
Kyle Patterson (Air Force)
Air Force wont pass it much but when they do they should have success against New Mexico who despite having some tough passing match-ups hasn’t slowed anyone down allowing over 400 yards per game in three games this year. Patterson ($4,200, 33% target share) and Brandon Lewis ($4,600, 39% target share) will see almost all the targets tonight and either is fine by me. Just keep in mind they may only pass it a total of 15 times tonight, so each likely gets 4 receptions max, but when they do get targeted they should turn it into catches and Patterson has been more vertical than Lewis. I project him to have 4 catches for 52 yards which may seem like blah, but on a four game slate, it’s good value.