Long live the days when this would have been a good match-up, and by long live the days I clearly mean a long long long long time ago. Monday Night Football has turned into the “lets just throw two teams that might draw fans in their 40’s and 50’s to stay up to 10pm possibly” game of the week. But hey, we do have that Genesis Halftime show to look forward to tonight!
I am trying to think of something nice to say about this game and I simply cannot. The Dolphins are on their way to a 0-16 or at best 1-15 season while the Steelers are right behind them with plenty of injuries, poor game plans and just overall bad football throughout the course of the first half of the season. Pittsburgh is clearly the better team and it would be shocking to say the least if the Dolphins got their first win tonight, but stranger things has happened and you and I can try to win some money either way off this game. So, let’s do that.
CORE SHOWDOWN TARGETS
QB – Ryan Fitzpatrick
I don’t see how Fitzmagic does not end up as one of the top two Dolphins point producers in this game. The Steelers are just middle of the pack both against the pass and the rush and the Dolphins will likely have some split touches out of the backfield. This will all end up in my mind as Fitzpatrick ending up as one of the top two point producers as he accounts for atleast one touchdown tonight through the air.
WR – Preston Williams
Preston Williams came into the season with some hype in seasonal drafts — which I don’t really endorse targeting guys on teams who are going to be REALLY bad generally, but in the Showdown slate tonight he pops off as someone to definitely target. Speaking of targets, he has 33 targets over the last four games for Miami and last week with Fitzmagic at QB, he hauled in 6 for 82 yards against a decent Bills secondary. Preston Williams is my favorite WR to correlate with Fitzpatrick for the Dolphins tonight. He should get us another 6 catches for 75 yards and a touchdown to pay off.
Other Dolphins Targets: Mark Walton, Jason Sanders, Mike Gesicki, Dolphins Defense
RB – James Conner
Conner and the Steelers running game should be the chalk approach today. Lots of factors going in their favor here from a trends perspective. They’re heavy favorites at home, coming off a BYE and add on top that the Dolphins are giving up 160 yards per game on the ground and we have found our Captain Spot Chalk tonight. Conner going over 100 yards on the ground in a game where Pittsburgh’s O-Line should control the line of scrimmage feels like a near lock and something to definitely get exposure too. The decision on locking him into the captain spot depends upon your risk and how many lineups you have in play, if I was recommending your exposure on 25 lineups I would keep him at 10 of them (or 40%) in the Captain Spot today with 100% overall exposure to either him or Benny Snell.
WR – JuJu Smith-Schuster
With the ease of the rushing game comes a chance to possibly get JJSS going for the Steelers. The BYE week along with getting Mason Rudolph back at QB should only benefit the game plan to look at getting Ju-Ju some heavy dose of targets and some big plays down the field.
Other Steelers Targets: Mason Rudolph, Diontae Johnson, Steelers Defense, Chris Boswell
Heaviest Exposures: James Conner, Preston Williams, Steelers Defense
PLAYER PROPS TO CONSIDER
Your books may have different player props to build and correlate off of. I love James Conner rushing yards over 100 and even like him to go over 120 tonight. I would take the over on Preston Williams receptions and for TD props look at Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster’s odds.
Final score prediction: Steelers 30, Dolphins 13