CFB Tailgate – Nov 26th

Welcome to a special Black Friday edition of CFB DFS action!

These two games are extra games on FanDuel – Main only and obviously one of them has intrigue in it for DFS

  • North Carolina vs North Carolina State – Total of 62.5 and two good enough offenses to put this one on our radar.
  • Washington State vs Washington

Not many games pop off as being high paced, high scoring, stackable spots.  There are two teams who stand out the most as team stacks today and then one game I think could jump up and shock some folks.

The two teams who are in great spots are Arkansas and Iowa State

Arkansas

Arkansas is the 30% owned team who has good pricing around players who should be able to carve up the Missouri Tigers terrible defense.  You can safely roll out the QB-RB-WR stack here because the RB in the scenario, Trelon Smith, is $3,600 on a slate starved of clear value.

  • QB – KJ Jefferson
  • RB – Trelon Smith
  • WR – Trelon Burks

Iowa State

The other team to target is Iowa State, and this is one of the top Senior Day narratives on the board as Iowa State has three seniors with strong correlation (and leverage) who should go off against a TCU defense not playing extremely well of late.  TCU is getting gashed on the ground, but even coming off a bad hit last week I expect Brock Purdy to find a way to rush one in playing in his final home game — where he has gone 15-1 as a starter at home in his Cyclones career.

His top two targets Xavier Hutchinson and Charlie Kolar are also seniors here and so you might as well go all three in a Senior stack while fading Breece Hall — who likely has a 3 or 4 TD game coming whenever they go Bowling.

  • QB – Brock Purdy
  • WR – Xavier Hutchinson
  • WR/TE – Charlie Kolar

Best Game Stack:  Kansas State @ Texas

Call me crazy but I see Texas rebounding after a really bad stretch and closing out a miserable season with a more competitive game — but that competitiveness is likely to rebound on the offensive side and not defensive so we have a Big 12 potential shootout here.

Texas is destroyed on the ground, so the pivot off Breece Hall is over to RB Deuce Vaughn who himself should be popular but to me is the #2 play behind Lew Nichols for CMU on this slate, he is the Kansas State offense.

If we see Texas go off it has to come with solid production from Casey Thompson ($7,000 on DK) and he has been locked in on Freshman Xavier Worthy, but Senior TE Cade Brewer is a nice $3,600 value if full stacking this game.

  • Game Stack:  Casey Thompson (UT), Xavier Worthy (UT), Cade Brewer (UT), Deuce Vaughn (KST), Phillip Brooks (KST)

Brock Purdy, Iowa State – $6,600

TCU can get carved up by accurate short passing games and that’s what we have with Purdy here.  Him along with his senior weapons in Xavier Hutchinson and Charlie Kolar likely go out with a touchdown each in their final home game.  The boost I like with using Purdy though is that he’ll no doubt, no doubt about it in my mind, take a rushing touchdown away from Breece Hall.  This is not a spend up at Quarterback week and a 23 from Purdy is damn good for me.

KJ Jefferson, Arkansas – $7.900

Jefferson has been MUCH better at home (22 fpts per game) and gets a very soft matchup vs Mizzou.  Like Purdy, he should rush it vs a bad rush defense but unlike Purdy he has potential to do it 2 or 3 times (just for more salary hit)

Lew Nichols III, Central Michigan – $10,000

Offense Adjusts After Running Back Lost To Injury - Central Michigan University Athletics

If you are a non QB and you are 10,000 on DraftKings that means you better have 40 point upside and most certainly Mr. Lew Nichols has that as he is one of the most consistent RB In the nation and will be at home against a defense that allows 5.1 ypc and 193 ypg on the season.

Nichols Has 2 or more touchdowns in four straight and every game he has touched the ball 20 times he has gone over 130 yards.  He went for 190+ and 2 scores against Eastern Michigan last year and all signs point to him having a 200 yard, multi-score type game here today.  Given the lack of explosive potential elsewhere on this slate I say we take his 30+ points and move on.

Deuce Vaughn, Kansas State – $9,100

Not near the Nichols upside, but we cannot ignore a RB vs the Texas Longhorns, especially one who catches the ball as much as Vaughn does.

VALUE RB OPTIONS

Trelon Smith, Arkansas – $3,600

If you are someone who is new to College Football then let me try to sum up the Mizzou rush defense.  It sucks.

So we consider anyone and everyone who could see 10+ carries against them and with Trelon being just $3.6k on DK this is a great spot to throw the Senior in at home and let yourself get the pay up players that are really the keys on this slate.

Johnny Richardson, UCF – $5,900

This is a risky spot due to a time share balance between speedy Soph. Richardson and Senior plower Isaiah Bowser.  Bowser has missed the last two games allowing Richardson to beat up on some bad competition and that is what they have once again here today.  Even though this is a home Senior game, Bowser as a transfer isn’t some long time UCF guy, so I don’t see much of a late season Senior narrative to think Bowser gets the workload and this should be a good spot to continue to let Richardson be involved and he has the big play ability.

USF is terrible against the run, so the Knights should find ground success one way or another and this slate is starving for clear value at RB.

SLEEPER OF THE DAY

Jerome Ford, Cincinnati – $8,300

After the Desmond Ridder show last week it should be put on the back of RB Jerome Ford to get the Bearcats to remain in the CFB Playoff mix against a pesky and sneaky ECU team.

Hassan Beydoun, Eastern Michigan – $6,600

This game should have a very good tempo to it and Beydoun is the logical counter to the Lew Nichols chalk this week.  He leads the Eagles in targets (28%) and has 78-863-4 on the season.  This is a very likely spot where they feed him often and he pushes over the 1,000 yard mark on the season.  CMU gives up lots of yards through the air so big plays should be a plenty.

Xavier Worthy, Texas – $7,600

Worthy has been making out like James of late with Texas being just in YOLO games and now he should have a high catch game as Kansas State’s been chewed up for nearly 70% completion % on the season.

Khalil Pimpleton, Central Michigan – $7,200

Play Pimpleton if you have a lineup without Nichols

Pimpleton is an interesting pivot or even a pairing with Lew Nichols (pricey though).  The reason being they love to get him the ball in space and he has big play ability, which could really prove to be a good leverage chewing up yards away from Nichols.

Xavier Hutchinson, Iowa State – $7,100

Anytime you can write up two Xavier’s you just gotta do it, no?   No matter who they are facing the Iowa State cyclones passing game runs through Hutchinson between the 20’s and Kolar in the red zone.  I know that TCU is bad against the run and likely gives up rushing touchdowns, but we just need TCU to lay down (which they should) and Purdy will find Hutchinson for a 36 yard touchdown haul today for his Senior Day send off.  I like Iowa State to drop 40+ points.

STUD PLAYER IN A BAD SPOT

Khalil Shakir, Boise State – $8,000

Shakir is the best WR on the slate, but it will be hard for many to justify paying all the way up for him along with the top end RB here today.  However, the recipe in college DFS is always to find that one stud WR who can go for 30-40 points which is really only Shakir today.  81% of the touchdowns allowed by San Diego State have come through the air but that is about all the positive factors he has going for him today.

Not only is this a game that starts at 9am, but it’s against a good front 7 defense who is playing to keep up with Fresno State in the standings.  Not to mention Boise State has been running the ball a lot more lately and thus it just feels hard for Shakir to smash, but if you want to go contrarian he is the only other option I like spending way up for.

VALUE

This is a blah value or mid range receiver slate, so lets go hunting for some Senior Narratives

Brandon Lewis – Air Force

Elijah Kothe – San Diego State

Brandon Johnson – UCF

Tyson Morris – Arkansas

Cade Brewer – Texas

DEEPEST POSITION

Running Back

BEST VALUE

Third RB and taking a gamble on a third WR today are the logical spots.  This sets up as a slate where if you get your 3rd WR to haul in a 3 yard touchdown catch you are pissing your pants with joy.

EXPECTED CHALK

KJ Jefferson, Lew Nichols, Trelon Smith, Trelon Burks

BETS

  • EMU/CMU Under 63.5
  • Boise State / San Diego State UNDER 44.5
  • Texas -3
  • Iowa/Nebraska U…..if you have a gambling problem please call …
  • Arkansas -14.5
  • Iowa State -15.5

CORE PLAYS

Normally when there are high priced players like Nichols/Vaughn on a slate with a lot of games I would opt to pivot to a more balanced lineup because there are always points to be found in College.  That is not the case as much today, so don’t be worried about having a couple low floor plays to allow for the 30+ point players.

  • Brock Purdy – $6,600
  • Lew Nichols – $10,000
  • Hassan Beydoun – $6,600

srenner

Founder and CEO for The Daily Ambush. Author or The Dongers Club (MLB), The Ambush (NFL), The Slapshot (NHL) and The Tailgate (CFB).