SLATE INTRO

Twelve game slate tonight with two games going early and yet another series PPD due to a team getting COVID in South Beach.  The Mets and Yankees will be off all weekend, which means the Yankees get yet another break in their schedule as they get time off for guys to heal up.  

 

New Series beginning today and we have ….

Inter…

League…

Games…

That’s right.  This is the trend to keep riding and with the Yankees-Mets getting PPD all weekend there are only two inter-league series as MLB’s obvious schedule this year is to have one inter-league series going on at a time per region.  In the Central it is the White Sox and Cubs and in the West is is the Padres and the Astros. 

 

WEATHER

Looks fairly clear of any PPD risk tonight, some storms here and there and we should keep an eye on Atlanta which could PPD if they get a random pop-up storm.

Overcast in Pittsburgh, but no heavy threat.

Roof will be closed in Seattle due to rain

 

Walker Buehler

Hail to the King …

I believe that there are many reasons why Walker Buehler will be the top scoring pitcher on this slate and of all those reasons the only one which can be debated is my number one reason.  I believe he is going to pitch a gem tonight.  If you do not agree with that reason because in your own mind you don’t think he is going to pitch well today, then move along and find another option.  Because that is the ONLY reason why you should not consider Buehler today.  So many people as writers or subscribers or DFS players in general will look for data reasons to tell them why they should be playing someone.  The data could be an optimizer spitting the player out, a rankings on a dashboard, where the player ate his dinner last night, doesn’t matter.  Data comes in many forms.  But the data you cannot argue with is that Walker Buehler is an ELITE pitcher.  I can recite you his statistics from a season ago when he was the best pitcher for the top team in the National League.  I can recite you his college statistics when he led Vanderbilt to the College World Series or we can even go back to when he was a young lad in Kentucky and probably was making out with whoever he could find in between innings while mowing down a bunch of future accountants in high school. 

The point is you cannot debate his talent and you cannot debate his great metrics like 10.61 K/9 last year and 9.90 his rookie season the year before.  So do not try to sit here and feed me that he hasn’t “looked right” this season so far.  Selecting a pitcher is half the match-up but 2/3rds the pitchers talent and 3/16th’s his recent form and believe it or not, his recent form isn’t as bad as you think — and silence on the math, it checks out.

If your brain is telling you that you cannot go Walker Buehler because he hasn’t looked right yet, then you are admitting that you are going to be wrong in fading him.  Because that EXACT same argument would have been used on Jose Berrios last night and that exact same argument made you feeling a little odd for using Kenta Maeda against the Brewers and then not using Jose Berrios against them.   You need to remove the bias sometimes and trust what you KNOW and I know that Buehler is better than his first four starts this season and I KNOW his 5.21 ERA is going to come down, his Pitchers per game is going to go up, his strikeout rate is going to go up and I sure as hell know that the fricken Colorado Rockies are a BAD offense.

Danny Duffy

I am not quite sure what the Twins lineup is trying to accomplish but if they’re interested in putting up a bunch of runs today, they’ve got it wrong.  These teams have seen a TON of each other on this young season and this is more me looking at what I can pair with Buehler today on DK and he’s the best of that sub 8k range. 

 

Outside of the Box

Andrew Heaney

He symbolizes this slate to a T.  Nobody will use him today but he’s a sleeper SP2 on DraftKings.  The Athletics will roll out 7 bats that are 20% in strikeout rate and Heaney, while generally a guy who throws too many pitches by inning 3, is someone who gets good swing rates and has done well against Oakland.  I hate the thought of the Angels pen holding the lead for him, but I love them giving him run support against Mike Fiers to start this game.

 

Guys I am not on.

• Aaron Civale – It’s a sneaky LiC day.  The streak ends.  Tigers win.
• Houser / Kuhl – We have to make a stand somewhere and both of these guys are 5 IP tops and bad chalk tonight IMO.

 

There’s no must own team today and with the pitching choices being the way that they are (me being locked in on a top play who is probably popular), I find myself liking going with a 2-2-2 type core build today from the teams where I expect offense and good match-up.   There’s no Coors Field.  So our best offense parks tonight are Camden Yards (which has bad offenses) and Truist Park (which has good pitchers in it)

Chicago White Sox

Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert

Two great things going in their favor today.  Jon Lester is one, but the Cubs horrific bullpen is the second.  Wrigley at night is normally a dead spot but warmer temps and slight breeze out to left — along with the HARD hitting White Sox coming into town is a good spot to look at them.  Consider this a nice high scoring series.

Houston Astros

Josh Reddick, Carlos Correa, Kyle Tucker

I love this as the game of the day.  The Astros get the worse SP to square off against – but both teams will get to face depleted and up and down bullpens.  For Houston even though they’re banged up I can see them getting a confidence boost from coming out of Coors Field.  Who knows where Altuve is going to hit in this lineup, but if they move him down and Josh Reddick is batting 2nd you better get Reddick locked in today.  The core of this team right now actually is Reddick-Correa-Tucker-Gurriel.  I don’t mind Springer and Altuve either, but the others fit best on DK where pricing actually matters (unlike FD).  Word is Gurriel is getting today off.  So load him up tomorrow then!

 

 

Other Spots to consider

Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles

JD Martinez, Christian Vasquez, Anthony Santander

Boston stinks and won’t win a third game in a row but not only is this JD Martinez final hurrah for a long time, but it’s his birthday, and he’s in Camden Yards and he’s facing a lefty.  Ok then!  But, let’s also wish a Happy Birthday to ole Christian Vasquez.  Yes, he gets the attention today as he was born 30 years ago in Puerto Rico on this exact day and as the younger of the two and also being a Catcher in Camden, I’ll lock his 2-2 HR to the left field bleachers today.  

For Baltimore, they have one guy who hits every single day.  Anthony Santander – but if you are like me and expect Baltimore to win then you gotta lean going light on this game because Baltimore wins it with John Means pitching well and not the Orioles stack going off..  Just my two cents.

 

Kansas City

Merrifield, Soler, Dozier

Third time seeing Eggs and the first went to KC, second went to eggs, third is full of 3 solo homers.

 

CATCHER

1. Christian Vazquez
2. Austin Nola … Hi, my name is Steve and I believe Austin Nola homers whenever Aaron Nola pitches.  Thanks, have a nice day….  Oh, he smashes lefties too.

FIRST BASE

Horrible position today as my top play Yuli Gurriel is getting the night off.  Go contrarian here if you are going one offs from your primary stack build today.  

1. Jose Abreu
2. Jeimer Candelario – 1B/3B
3. Carlos Santana … Considering my annoyance with the Indians not batting Lindor lead off I probably dont go Santana but when he homers and people victory lap the bad Indians play today, I’ll react accordingly….

 

SECOND BASE

1. Michael Chavis
2. Rougned Odor … Can we go to the Odor well twice in one week?
3. Hanser Alberto … Much better on FD.  Nobody wants a 4800 second baseman on DK.
4. Jake Cronenworth

THIRD BASE

1. Anthony Rendon
2. Rendon, Anthony
3. Tony Two Bags

ok fine, Eduardo Escobar is the cheaper play.

 

SHORTSTOP

I must admit, Shortstop has been top notch this season, top notch…

1. Tim Anderson
2. Carlos Correa
3. Brock Holt – LiPNC
4. Nikoooooo Goodrum

 

OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore

1. Eloy Jimenez / Luis Robert … Prefer Eloy
2. Josh Reddick
3. JD Martinez … He uh… Is not the contrarian one.
4. Joey Gallo … He rarely hits anything but homers here but is a sneaky LvL play.

Harper, Bryce would have made this list but it appears he is too … uh … “Tired”…. and Christian Yelich will hit 2 HR tomorrow.

Outfield – Tier 2

1. Joc Pederson
2. Whit Merrifield … Gut feeling of the weekend is Whit going bananas all weekend.
3. Tony Santander
4. Jorge Soler … For whatever reason he has been far better at home this season — as have most of the Royals bats except for that week in Detroit.

Outfield – Value

1. Kyle Tucker
2. Austin Slater – DK Value
3. Jesse Winker

 

1. Anthony Rendon – 3B – LA Angels – Chairman of the Dongers Club
2. Eloy Jimenez – OF – White Sox
3. Joey Gallo – OF – Texas
4. J.D. Martinez – OF – Boston
5. Austin Nola – C – Seattle
6. Carlos Correa – SS – Houston
7. Michael Chavis – 2B – Boston
8. Justin Smoak – 1B – Brewers
9. BONUS ……………… Jeimer Calendario – 1B/3B – Detroit